St. Louis City host Portland Timbers at Energizer Park, with kick-off at 00:30 UK on Thursday 29 October. St. Louis are 3rd in the Western Conference on 51 points and Portland are 11th in the Western Conference on 37.
St. Louis have lost their last two, after a goalless draw and four wins in a row before that. Portland have won two of their last ten.
St. Louis have 14 wins, 9 draws and 8 defeats from 31 games, with 56 goals scored and 44 conceded. Their last two were a 3-0 loss at RSL on Sunday and a 3-2 defeat at Minnesota before it. Before that came a goalless draw with Vancouver, a 6-2 win over LA Galaxy and a 3-0 win at New York RB.
St. Louis score 1.81 goals a game, the 8th most in the league, and concede 1.42, the 9th fewest. They average 4.9 shots on target and 5.23 corners a game, the 13th and 9th most, and commit 13.84 fouls a game, the 3rd most.
Portland are on 10 wins, 7 draws and 14 defeats, with 54 scored and 58 against. Their 3-2 win over Charlotte on Sunday followed a 0-0 draw with Colorado, a 2-0 loss at LA Galaxy, a 3-3 draw at Sporting KC and a 3-1 defeat at San Jose.
Both teams have scored in 74% of Portland games, the 3rd highest rate in the league, and Portland have kept a clean sheet in only 6% of them, the 2nd lowest. They concede 1.87 a game, the 7th most, and give away just 9.65 fouls a game, the 3rd fewest.
St. Louis City possible starting lineup:
Lundt; Orozco, Baumgartl, Fall, Wallem; Durkin, Brunet; Holse, Navarro, Becher
Portland Timbers possible starting lineup:
Pantemis; Hernández, Waterman, Miller, Fory; Caicedo Barrera, Da Costa, Iziota; Lassiter, Janssen, Velde
Rafael Navarro has had a shot in 20 straight games, averaging 2.8 a game, and a shot on target in each of his last eight. He's 1.25 at bet365 to have a shot on target and 1.02 for a shot.
Carlo Holse has registered three or more shots in four consecutive games, averaging 4.3, and a shot on target in five in a row. He's 1.44 at bet365 for a shot on target and 1.73 for 3+ shots.
Kristoffer Velde has reached three or more shots in four of his last five games for Portland, averaging 4.4 a game. He's 1.50 at bet365 for 3+ shots.
Vincent Janssen has had a shot in eight straight games, at 1.04 at bet365.
Chris Durkin has made a tackle in 12 straight games and averages 2.4 a game.
We back St. Louis, who are 1.83 at Ladbrokes to win. We make it 51% for St. Louis, 25% for Portland and 24% for a draw.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| St. Louis win | 1.83 (Ladbrokes) | 51% |
| Draw | 4.10 (bet365) | 24% |
| Portland win | 3.60 (bet365) | 25% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 (bet365) | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 (bet365) | 63% |
Our prediction is a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single scoreline at 11%, though we make St. Louis more likely to win the game. A draw is in play, and 2-1 to the hosts is next at 10%. We project St. Louis for 1.94 goals and Portland for 1.31, with a 27% chance of a clean sheet for St. Louis and 14% for Portland.