Austin and Real Salt Lake meet at Q2 Stadium in Major League Soccer, with kick-off at 00:30 UK on Thursday 29 October. Both play in the Western Conference, where Austin are 14th on 34 points from 31 games and Real Salt Lake are 10th on 39. RSL arrive with the better recent run, three wins from their last five against one for Austin.
Austin have scored 40 and conceded 57 in 31 games, a goal difference of minus 17. RSL have scored 48 and conceded 48.
Austin won 2-1 away at Sporting KC on 25 October, ending a run of three straight defeats: a 1-2 home loss to Vancouver, a 3-1 defeat at LAFC and a 4-1 beating by Nashville SC at Q2 Stadium. Those followed a 3-3 draw with San Diego.
Austin's shots on target average 4.19 a game, the 2nd fewest in MLS, and they score 1.29 goals a game, the 5th fewest. At the back they concede 1.84, the 8th most. Both teams have scored in 71% of Austin games, the 6th highest rate in MLS, and 71% have gone over 2.5 goals, the 5th highest.
Real Salt Lake won 3-0 at home to St. Louis on 25 October, and won 3-1 at Sporting KC a week earlier. Before that came a 1-1 draw with San Jose, a 2-1 loss at Philadelphia and a 3-0 win over New England.
RSL average 5.45 shots on target a game, the 4th most in the league, and they are the 6th most carded side at 2.32 a game. They keep a clean sheet in only 13% of games, the 8th lowest rate.
Austin possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Desler, Sánchez, Biro, Rosales; Alastuey, Sabovic; Gallagher, Torres, Uzuni; Vazquez
Real Salt Lake possible starting lineup:
Cabral; De Fougerolles, Quinton, Henry, Solans; Spierings, Caliskan, Sanabria; Marczuk, Lobjanidze, Guilavogui
Brandon Vazquez has had two or more shots in five straight games for Austin, averaging 3.4 a game across that run. He is 1.20 at bet365 for 2+ shots.
Sergi Solans has put a shot on target in seven straight games for RSL, 1.30 at Ladbrokes, and has had a shot in each of those seven as well, averaging 2.4 shots a game.
Morgan Guilavogui has had a shot in eight straight and a tackle in nine straight. Dominik Marczuk has had a shot in nine consecutive games, 1.14 at bet365.
At the back, K. Henry has made a tackle in 11 straight games at 2.5 a game, and has committed two or more fouls in each of his last four, 1.67 at Midnite. Saba Lobjanidze has had a shot on target in four straight, 1.44 at Ladbrokes.
We back Real Salt Lake to win, and bet365 have them at 2.20. We make it 45% for RSL, 29% for Austin and 26% for a draw.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Austin win | 3.00 (bet365) | 29% |
| Draw | 3.75 (midnite) | 26% |
| RSL win | 2.20 (bet365) | 45% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 (bet365) | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 (bet365) | 58% |
We expect 1.32 goals from Austin and 1.68 from RSL. 1-1 is the likeliest single scoreline at 12%, so a draw is in play, though we make Real Salt Lake the more likely winner. Our prediction is Austin 1-1 Real Salt Lake. Both teams have scored in 71% and 68% of their games respectively, and our model puts BTTS at 61%.
Our projection has RSL on 14.27 total shots and Austin on 12.63. Solans, Guilavogui and Marczuk are on shooting runs of seven, eight and nine games, and Vazquez has had two or more shots in each of his last five for Austin.