Minnesota United welcome Sporting KC to Allianz Field in Major League Soccer on Thursday 29 October, with kick-off at 00:30 UK. The hosts are 13th in the Western Conference on 35 points, while Sporting KC are 15th in the West on 22. Sporting have conceded 77 goals in 31 games and we give Minnesota a 66% chance of the win.
Minnesota United have drawn three of their last five and are unbeaten in four, and they sit 13th in the Western Conference of the MLS standings with eight wins, 11 draws and 12 defeats. Their latest outing was a 0-0 at Houston, and before that came a 3-2 home win over St. Louis, their only win in the last five. Both of their draws before that finished 2-2, away at Colorado and at home to Houston. They score 1.52 per game, the 12th fewest in the league, but both teams have scored in 71% of their matches, the 6th highest rate, and they get plenty of shots on target, 4.97 a game, the 11th most.
Sporting KC are in a much darker place. They have lost four of their last five, the latest a 2-1 home defeat to Austin, and before that came a 3-1 loss to RSL and a 4-0 beating at Nashville SC. Their only recent point came in a 3-3 draw with Portland. Their record is six wins, four draws and 21 defeats, with 37 scored and 77 conceded. They allow 2.48 goals a game, the most in MLS, and have kept a clean sheet in just 3% of their matches, the lowest rate of any side. At the other end they average 1.19 goals, the 2nd fewest, and 4.23 shots on target, the 3rd fewest. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of their games, the highest rate in the league.
Minnesota United possible starting lineup:
Callender; Valerius, DÃaz, Duggan; Triantis, Hlongwane, Gene, Markanich Jr.; Jackson, Yeboah, Gonzalez
Sporting KC possible starting lineup:
Cleveland; Davis, Miller, Meyer, Karic; Luiz, Agyabeng, Bassong; Harris, Calheira, Afrifa
Kelvin Yeboah leads the home attack, with at least three shots in each of his last four games, 5, 6, 4 and 4, and he is 1.22 at bet365 to reach three again.
Owen Gene has committed at least one foul in 16 straight games, and he averages 1.7 a game. Midnite have him at 1.30.
Nectarios Triantis has had a shot in five straight games and averages 2 a game from midfield, at 1.07 with bet365.
For Sporting KC, Taylor Calheira has had two or more shots in five consecutive games and averages 2.6, and bet365 offer 1.53 on him continuing it. André Luiz has had a shot in nine straight games, averaging 3.7 a game, while Calvin Harris has fouled in five in a row and is 1.36 at Midnite.
We back Minnesota United to win at 1.44 with Ladbrokes. Our model gives them a 66% chance, with the draw at 19% and a Sporting KC win at 15%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United win | 1.44 (Ladbrokes) | 66% |
| Draw | 5.00 (bet365) | 19% |
| Sporting KC win | 6.25 (Midnite) | 15% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 (bet365) | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.33 (bet365) | 72% |
We expect Minnesota to score around two and a half goals to Sporting's one and a fifth, and we predict a 2-1 home win. We put both teams scoring at 65%, which fits a Sporting side that has leaked goals all season but scored in four of its last five. A 1-1 draw is the second likeliest scoreline.
Minnesota centre-back Jefferson DÃaz has also committed a foul in each of his last four games and is 1.30 with Midnite.