Nashville SC welcome Philadelphia Union to GEODIS Park in Major League Soccer on Thursday 29 October, with kick-off at 00:30 UK. Nashville are 1st in the Eastern Conference and Philadelphia are 6th. Nashville have the best defence in MLS, conceding 0.74 a game, while Philadelphia score 2 a game, the 5th most.
Nashville SC lead the Eastern Conference in the MLS standings on 70 points from 31 games, with 21 wins, 7 draws and just 3 defeats. They have scored 66 and let in 23. Per game that is 0.74 conceded, the fewest in the league, and they have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their matches, the highest rate in MLS. At the other end they average 2.13 goals, the 2nd most.
Nashville have won four of their last five and six of their last ten. They won 2-0 away at CF Montréal last Saturday, drew 1-1 at San Jose before that, and beat Sporting KC 4-0 at home on 15 October. The 4-1 win at Austin came four days earlier. Their shots on target average of 5.26 is the 7th most in the division.
Philadelphia Union are 6th in the Eastern Conference on 46 points from 31 games, with 13 wins, 7 draws and 11 defeats, and 62 goals scored against 50 conceded. They won eight in a row before a draw and then a defeat, the defeat a 2-1 loss to New England last Saturday. A week earlier they drew 2-2 with Charlotte, and before that they won 3-1 at Chicago Fire and 2-1 against Real Salt Lake.
Philadelphia concede 1.61 a game, the 15th most. Both teams have scored in 71% of their matches, the 6th highest rate in MLS, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 71%, the 5th highest. They also lead MLS in fouls at 15.55 a game and have the 3rd most cards at 2.45, while Nashville have the 6th fewest cards at 1.74.
Nashville SC possible starting lineup:
Schwake; Nájar, Palacios, Woledzi, Baker-Whiting; Yazbek, Corcoran; Espinoza, Mukhtar, Saad; Surridge
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Blake; Wagner, Harriel, Pierre, Westfield; Sullivan, Lukić, Jean Jacques, Sullivan; Damiani, Iloski
Matthew Corcoran has made at least one tackle in 21 straight games, averaging 2.9 tackles a game over the run.
Hany Mukhtar has had two or more shots in seven straight games, averaging four a game over the run. He is 1.13 at bet365 to keep that going.
Milan Iloski has had a shot on target in ten consecutive games, averaging 1.9 a game. He is 1.40 at Ladbrokes to extend the run.
Bruno Damiani has committed at least one foul in 14 straight games, averaging 2.6 a game. Midnite have him at 1.08.
Frankie Westfield has fouled in 12 in a row. The Philadelphia right-back is 1.33 at Midnite to foul again.
We back Nashville SC to win, and Midnite make them 1.80. The visitors are 4.20 at bet365 and the draw is 3.90 at the same book.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC win | 1.80 (Midnite) | 51% |
| Draw | 3.90 (bet365) | 25% |
| Philadelphia Union win | 4.20 (bet365) | 24% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 (bet365) | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 (bet365) | 60% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 (bet365) | 82% |
We project 1.87 goals for Nashville and 1.22 for Philadelphia, and put both teams scoring at 61%. We predict a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single scoreline at 11.4%, though we make Nashville SC 51% to win against 24% for Philadelphia. Nashville have the tightest defence in MLS, but Philadelphia have scored in each of their last five games.