Toronto welcome DC United to Toronto Stadium on Wednesday 28 October, with kick-off at 23:30 UK. It is an MLS meeting of two Eastern Conference sides separated by two places and three points, with a leaky, high-scoring Toronto up against a DC attack that has struggled to score all season.
Toronto are 11th in the Eastern Conference on 36 points from 31 games. DC United sit 13th on 33. Toronto have scored 48 and conceded 59, and DC have scored 38 and let in 55. Our model makes Toronto the likeliest winners at 50%, with the draw and a DC United win both at 25%.
Toronto's last five brought two wins, a draw and two defeats, and the most recent was a 4-2 loss at Columbus on 24 October. Before that came a 2-0 win at New York RB and a 3-3 draw with Orlando City. Those three games produced 14 goals between them.
Toronto have conceded 1.9 a game, the 5th most in MLS. They have kept a clean sheet in only 13% of their matches, the 8th lowest, and both teams have scored in 77% of them, the highest rate in the competition. Their 1.55 goals a game is the 14th fewest, and they average 4.55 shots on target, the 7th fewest.
DC United arrive on a rough run: a 2-0 home loss to Cincinnati on 24 October, a 2-1 defeat at Cincinnati three days earlier, and a 4-1 loss at Orlando City before that. The one win in their last five was 2-1 at home to New York RB, and they lost 4-0 at Inter Miami before that.
Scoring is the problem. DC average 1.23 goals a game, the 3rd fewest in MLS, and 4.29 shots on target, the 5th fewest. They do give away fouls at a high rate, 13 a game, the 6th most. They have kept a clean sheet in 19% of games, the 11th highest rate.
Toronto possible starting lineup:
Gavran; Laryea, Kuscevic, Monlouis, Pereira; Dorsch, Osorio; Corbeanu, Mihailovic, Sallói; Sargent
DC United possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Nono, Rowles, Bartlett, Kurokawa; Dozzell, Servania, Avilez; Peglow, Baribo, Munteanu
Theo Corbeanu has had a shot in seven straight games and a shot on target in six, averaging 1.3 shots on target a game over that run. He is 1.40 at Ladbrokes to land a shot on target again.
Matheus Pereira is Toronto's left-back, and he has had a shot in five in a row, a shot on target in four and a foul in six straight games. He is 1.40 at bet365 for a shot and 3.40 for one on target.
Tai Baribo is DC's striker and has had at least one shot in 16 consecutive games, averaging 2.6 shots a game over that run.
Brandon Servania has had a shot in four of his last five, with five shots in one game and three in another. He is 1.33 at bet365 for a shot.
Andre Dozzell has committed a foul in four straight games and is 1.36 at Midnite to do it again.
Toronto are 1.91 at Ladbrokes to win, and our model gives them a 50% chance. On the player markets, Corbeanu has had a shot on target in each of his last five games and Pereira a shot in each of his.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto to win | 1.91 (Ladbrokes) | 50% |
| Draw | 3.80 (Midnite) | 25% |
| DC United to win | 3.70 (bet365) | 25% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 (bet365) | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 (bet365) | 61% |
We project 1.87 goals for Toronto against 1.30 for DC United. Our prediction is Toronto 1-1 DC United, the model's likeliest single score, though we make Toronto the more likely winner, at 50% to DC United's 25%. Both teams scoring is a 63% chance and over 2.5 goals 61%.