New England host New York RB at Boston Stadium on Wednesday 28 October, with kick-off at 23:30 UK. The hosts are 2nd in the Eastern Conference on 55 points from 31 games. The visitors are 9th in the Eastern Conference on 39 points, with 14 defeats and 56 goals conceded.
New England have gone over 2.5 goals in 71% of their matches, the 5th highest rate in MLS, and we project 2.13 goals for the hosts against 1.34 for the visitors. Several players on both sides come in on long runs of shots and fouls.
New England have won seven of their last ten and come in on a run of three straight wins. They won 2-1 at Philadelphia on 24 October and 1-0 against Chicago Fire a week earlier, after a 3-2 win at Cincinnati. Before that came a 3-0 home defeat to Seattle and a 3-0 loss at RSL.
At the back they concede 1.35 a game, the 7th fewest in MLS, and they've kept a clean sheet in 19% of matches, the 11th highest rate. They also commit the fewest fouls in the division at 9.45 a game, and only three sides collect fewer cards.
New York RB have won four of their last ten and lost five. They beat Inter Miami 2-0 on 24 October and San Diego 4-1 on 10 October. Between those came a 2-1 defeat at DC United and a 2-0 home loss to Toronto, and before the San Diego game they lost 3-0 at home to St. Louis.
They score 1.32 a game, the 8th fewest in the league, and concede 1.81, the 9th most. The visitors take 5.74 corners a game, the 5th most in MLS, and commit 12.45 fouls a game, the 12th most.
New England possible starting lineup:
Turner; Feingold, Kohler, Miller, Wynder; Polster, Gil, Raines; Gazdag, Turgeman, Langoni
New York RB possible starting lineup:
Horvath; Nealis, Parker, Bazán, Padelford; Donkor, Mehmeti, Sofo; Cowell, Hall, Ruvalcaba
Peyton Miller has had at least one shot in 18 straight games, averaging three a game across the run, and a shot is 1.04 at midnite.
His team-mate Dor Turgeman has a shot in each of his last 15, averaging 2.6, and is 1.03 at midnite.
On the New York side, Ronald Donkor has committed a foul in 16 consecutive games, averaging 2.1, and is 1.17 at midnite. He has also made a tackle in ten straight.
Cade Cowell has had a shot in ten games running, averaging 2.2, and is 1.06 at bet365. He has also hit a shot on target in four of his last five, and 1+ on target is 1.62 at bet365.
Julian Hall has had at least two shots in each of his last five, for 23 shots across those five games. Two or more shots is 1.22 at bet365.
We back New England to win, and the best price on the home side is 1.91 at ladbrokes. We give the hosts a 55% chance, the draw 22% and New York RB 23%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Revolution win | 1.91 (ladbrokes) | 55% |
| Draw | 4.00 (bet365) | 22% |
| Red Bulls win | 3.50 (bet365) | 23% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 (bet365) | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 (bet365) | 67% |
We predict a 1-1 draw as the likeliest single score at 9.8%, though we make New England 55% to win, and 2-1 is almost level with it at 9.5%. A draw is in play, but the goals lean is clearer: we give both teams to score a 66% chance and over 2.5 goals 67%, and 2-1 and 3-1 both sit in the top four scorelines.