New York City host Atlanta United at Citi Field on Wednesday 28 October, with kick-off at 23:30 UK. It is 12th against 14th in the Eastern Conference, and these two shared a 2-2 draw in Atlanta on 26 September. New York City are winless in their last five and Atlanta have won one of theirs.
Our model makes New York City the likelier winners at 52%, with the draw at 25% and Atlanta at 23%, and we predict a 1-1 draw as the likeliest single score. On the player side, Atlanta's Miguel Almirón has had at least one shot in 24 straight games.
NYCFC have 35 points from 31 games, with eight wins, 11 draws and 12 defeats, and a goal difference of plus two (45 scored, 43 conceded). They have won one of their last ten and drawn five, and their last five brought three draws and two defeats. They drew 2-2 at Orlando City on 24 October after a 1-1 home draw with LAFC, and before that lost 2-0 at Inter Miami and 2-1 at Chicago Fire.
At the back they concede 1.39 goals a game, the 8th fewest in MLS, while up front they score 1.45, the 11th fewest. They also take the 3rd fewest corners and pick up the 2nd fewest cards.
Atlanta United are 14th on 30 points from 31, with eight wins, six draws and 17 defeats and a goal difference of minus 15 (39 for, 54 against). They lost 3-2 at home to Chicago Fire last time out, a result that followed a 3-1 home defeat to Inter Miami. Before that came a 3-0 win at CF Montréal, their only win in the last five, and a 3-1 home defeat to Cincinnati; the 2-2 draw with these opponents was the match before that.
They have the fewest shots on target per game in MLS, 4.03, and score the 4th fewest goals, 1.26 a game, while conceding the 12th most, 1.74. Their card count is the 9th most, at 2.26 a game.
New York City possible starting lineup:
Romero; Gray, Martins, Sands, O'Toole; O'Neill, Perea; Ojeda, Fernández Mercau, Traoré; MartÃnez
Atlanta United possible starting lineup:
Hoyos; Jacob, DÃaz, Alonso, Báez; Amaro, Muyumba; Galoppo, Miranchuk, Almirón; Embolo
Miguel Almirón has had a shot in 24 straight games, averaging 2.6 shots a game over that run. He is 1.06 at bet365 for a shot in this one.
Giuliano Galoppo has had two or more shots in each of his last five, 2.8 per game over that spell, and is 1.50 at bet365 to make it six.
James Sands has committed a foul in six straight games and is 1.44 at Midnite to do so again. Nicolás Fernández Mercau has had a shot on target in four of his last five games, including five in one of them, and is 1.33 at Ladbrokes to have another.
Mauricio Amaro has made a tackle in nine straight games, averaging 1.6 a game over that run, and Aiden O'Neill has made a tackle in seven straight, averaging 2.4.
New York City are 1.70 at Ladbrokes to win at home, with the draw 4.10 at bet365 and Atlanta 4.20 at bet365. Our model gives them a 52% chance of winning.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| New York City win | 1.70 (Ladbrokes) | 52% |
| Draw | 4.10 (bet365) | 25% |
| Atlanta United win | 4.20 (bet365) | 23% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 (bet365) | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 (bet365) | 55% |
We project 1.77 goals for New York City and 1.11 for Atlanta. 1-1 is the likeliest single scoreline, so a draw is in play, though we make the home side the likelier winner. We predict a 1-1 draw.
We put New York City's chance of a clean sheet at 33%, against 17% for Atlanta.