Inter Miami welcome Cincinnati to Nu Stadium on Wednesday 28 October, with kick-off at 23:30 UK. It pairs the highest-scoring side in the league with a visiting defence that concedes the 3rd most goals a game in MLS. Miami sit 3rd in the Eastern Conference on 55 points from 31 games, while Cincinnati are 8th in the same conference on 42.
Both teams score freely, and both have gone over 2.5 goals in 7 of every 10 games or more.
Inter Miami have 15 wins, 10 draws and 6 defeats, with 73 goals scored and 53 conceded. They average 2.35 goals a game, which is the most in MLS, and 6.03 shots on target, also the most. Their last five brought three wins and two defeats: a 2-1 loss at Columbus, then a 4-0 win over DC United, 2-0 against NYCFC and 3-1 at Atlanta, and a 2-0 defeat at New York RB last time out. At the back they have conceded 1.71 a game, the 13th most in MLS, and kept a clean sheet in 19% of games.
Cincinnati have 11 wins, 9 draws and 11 defeats, with 64 scored and 71 conceded. They score 2.06 a game, the 3rd most in the league, and take 5.94 shots on target a game, the 2nd most. At the back it's a different story. They concede 2.29 a game, the 3rd most, and have kept a clean sheet in only 10% of games, the 3rd lowest. They have won three of their last five: a 3-1 win at Atlanta, then home defeats by New England (2-3) and Columbus (0-2), then a 2-1 home win over DC United and a 2-0 win at DC United.
Both teams have scored in 74% of the games each club has played, and our model puts the chance of that happening here at 76%.
Inter Miami possible starting lineup:
St. Clair; Luján, Casemiro, Micael, Reguilón; De Paul, Galarza Fonda, Ayala; Messi, Suárez, Berterame
Cincinnati possible starting lineup:
Celentano; Gidi, Hagglund, Hadebe; Valenzuela, Nwobodo, Bucha, RamÃrez; Evander; Barlow, Denkey
Lionel Messi has had at least one shot in 28 straight games, averaging 6.1 shots a game across that run.
Germán Berterame has had a shot in 15 consecutive games, and is 1.03 at Midnite for another. Luis Suárez has committed a foul in four of his last five, and he is 1.50 at Midnite to commit at least one.
For Cincinnati, Tom Barlow has had a shot on target in eight straight games and is 1.57 at bet365 to make it nine. He has also had a shot in each of those eight. Kévin Denkey has had two or more shots in seven straight, averaging 4.1 shots a game, and 2+ shots is 1.20 at Midnite.
We back Inter Miami to win. The best price is 1.48 at Ladbrokes, with the draw 5.25 at bet365 and Cincinnati 5.25 at Midnite. Our model gives Miami a 59% chance, the draw 19% and Cincinnati 22%. For a player angle, Pavel Bucha has had a shot in four of his last five and is 1.44 at bet365 for 1+ shots.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami win | 1.48 (Ladbrokes) | 59% |
| Draw | 5.25 (bet365) | 19% |
| Cincinnati win | 5.25 (Midnite) | 22% |
| Both teams to score | 1.33 (bet365) | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.22 (bet365) | 81% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.05 (bet365) | 94% |
Our projection is Inter Miami 2-1 Cincinnati, a scoreline we put at 7.7%. We project 2.71 goals for Miami and 1.65 for Cincinnati, with 4.36 in total. 3-1 and 2-2 are the next likeliest scores, and a high-scoring draw is in play.