Inter Miami host New York City at Chase Stadium in Major League Soccer, with kick-off at 00:30 UK time on Thursday 15 October. The league's highest-scoring attack meets a side that has lost three of its last five, and it is a fixture where goals look likely at both ends.
Miami are 2nd in the Eastern Conference and score 2.43 goals a game, more than anyone in MLS. New York City are 10th and concede 1.36 a game, so Miami's attack meets a defence that has held up better than most. They will need to hold their shape better than they did in their last two away games, both of which produced goals against them.
Inter Miami sit 2nd in the Eastern Conference on 49 points from 28 games, with 13 wins, 10 draws and 5 defeats, and a goal difference of +18 (68 scored, 50 conceded). Their latest outing was a 4-0 win over DC United, which followed a 2-1 defeat at Columbus. Before that came back-to-back 2-2 home draws with San Diego and Nashville SC, and a 1-1 at Chicago Fire.
Both teams have scored in 79% of Miami's games and 79% have gone over 2.5 goals. They also average 6.21 shots on target a game.
New York City are 10th in the Eastern Conference with 33 points from 28 games (8 wins, 9 draws, 11 defeats) and a goal difference of +4. They have lost three of their last five. The most recent was a 2-1 loss at Chicago Fire, and before that came a 2-2 draw at Atlanta, a 1-0 home defeat to New York RB and a 2-0 win at RSL.
They concede only 1.36 goals a game, but win just 3.82 corners a game.
Inter Miami possible starting lineup:
St. Clair; Luján, Falcón, Micael, Reguilón; Casemiro, De Paul, Galarza Fonda; Messi, Suárez, Berterame
New York City possible starting lineup:
Freese; Gray, Martins, Sands, O'Toole; O'Neill, Perea; Ojeda, Fernández Mercau, Wolf; MartÃnez
Lionel Messi has had three or more shots in seven straight games and averages 7.6 shots a game over that run, the best in the competition. He has also managed two or more shots on target in each of his last five, and he is 1.33 at Ladbrokes to do it again.
Germán Berterame has had at least one shot in 12 straight games and has committed a foul in seven in a row.
Nicolás Fernández Mercau is New York City's most dependable attacker, with two or more shots in six straight games at 2.7 a game. He is 1.22 at bet365 to keep that going.
Tayvon Gray has made at least one tackle in 13 straight games.
We back Inter Miami to win at 1.46 with bet365. Our model gives them a 58% chance, with the draw at 22% and a New York City win at 20%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami win | 1.46 (bet365) | 58% |
| Draw | 5.00 (bet365) | 22% |
| New York City win | 5.50 (bet365) | 20% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 (Ladbrokes) | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.30 (bet365) | 69% |
We predict a 2-1 Inter Miami win, the likeliest score at 9.5%, though 1-1 is only just behind it at 9.2%, so a draw is in play. We project 2.25 goals for Miami against 1.30 for New York City, and both teams to score looks the likelier outcome.
On the player side, Messi is 1.25 at bet365 for two or more shots on target, and Fernández Mercau is 1.22 for two or more shots.