Fortaleza xG 2025

Fortaleza expected goals 2025: 2025

Games: 38
Expected goals (xG): 47.00
Goals scored: 43
Goals minus xG: -4.00
Expected goals against (xGA): 57.21
Goals conceded: 58
xGA minus goals conceded: -0.79
Expected points (xPts): 45.23
Points: 43
Points minus xPts: -2.23
Verdict: In line with expected goals

Are Fortaleza overperforming their expected goals?

Fortaleza's results and their chances agree, within 2.2 points of xPts over 38 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.

Fortaleza results against expected goals by form window and venue

Window	Games	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xGA	Conceded	xGA minus conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
25/	38	47.00	43	-4.00	57.21	58	-0.79	45.23	43	-2.23
Last 10	10	12.09	17	+4.91	17.41	14	+3.41	10.51	19	+8.49
Last 5	5	6.13	9	+2.87	9.86	7	+2.86	4.90	12	+7.10
Home	19	25.91	23	-2.91	22.63	23	-0.37	27.40	27	-0.40
Away	19	21.09	20	-1.09	34.58	35	-0.42	17.83	16	-1.83

Fortaleza expected goals match by match, 2025

Date	Competition	Opponent	Score	xG	xGA	xPts	Points	Deserved result
7 Dec	Campeonato Brasileiro	Botafogo (A)	4-2	1.04	2.04	0.77	0	L
3 Dec	Campeonato Brasileiro	Corinthians (H)	2-1	1.07	1.92	0.84	3	L
30 Nov	Campeonato Brasileiro	Atlético-MG (H)	1-0	1.67	0.63	2.11	3	W
26 Nov	Campeonato Brasileiro	Bragantino (A)	0-1	0.61	1.87	0.55	3	L
20 Nov	Campeonato Brasileiro	Bahia (A)	2-3	1.74	3.40	0.63	3	L
12 Nov	Campeonato Brasileiro	Atlético-MG (A)	3-3	2.41	1.30	2.04	1	W
9 Nov	Campeonato Brasileiro	Grêmio (H)	2-2	1.56	2.40	0.92	1	L
6 Nov	Campeonato Brasileiro	Ceará (A)	1-1	0.52	0.75	1.08	1	D
1 Nov	Campeonato Brasileiro	Santos (A)	1-1	0.76	1.42	0.87	1	L
25 Oct	Campeonato Brasileiro	Flamengo (H)	1-0	0.71	1.68	0.70	3	L
19 Oct	Campeonato Brasileiro	Cruzeiro (A)	1-0	1.03	1.10	1.30	0	L
16 Oct	Campeonato Brasileiro	Vasco (H)	0-2	2.32	0.59	2.45	0	W
5 Oct	Campeonato Brasileiro	Juventude (A)	1-2	1.39	2.08	0.97	3	L
2 Oct	Campeonato Brasileiro	São Paulo (H)	0-2	1.07	1.62	1.00	0	L
27 Sep	Campeonato Brasileiro	Sport Recife (H)	1-0	0.85	0.80	1.36	3	D
21 Sep	Campeonato Brasileiro	Palmeiras (A)	4-1	1.29	2.57	0.69	0	L
13 Sep	Campeonato Brasileiro	Vitória (H)	2-0	1.18	0.70	1.73	3	W
31 Aug	Campeonato Brasileiro	Internacional (A)	2-1	0.86	2.08	0.64	0	L
24 Aug	Campeonato Brasileiro	Mirassol (H)	0-1	2.19	0.88	2.20	0	W
16 Aug	Campeonato Brasileiro	Fluminense (A)	2-1	1.38	1.21	1.48	0	W
9 Aug	Campeonato Brasileiro	Botafogo (H)	0-5	0.59	1.36	0.76	0	L
3 Aug	Campeonato Brasileiro	Corinthians (A)	1-1	0.55	1.95	0.48	1	L
29 Jul	Campeonato Brasileiro	Grêmio (A)	2-1	1.67	2.65	0.88	0	L
26 Jul	Campeonato Brasileiro	Bragantino (H)	3-1	1.47	0.87	1.80	3	W
19 Jul	Campeonato Brasileiro	Bahia (H)	1-1	1.53	2.32	0.94	1	L
13 Jul	Campeonato Brasileiro	Ceará (H)	0-1	0.71	1.64	0.72	0	L
12 Jun	Campeonato Brasileiro	Santos (H)	2-3	3.58	0.92	2.62	0	W
1 Jun	Campeonato Brasileiro	Flamengo (A)	5-0	0.39	2.21	0.31	0	L
25 May	Campeonato Brasileiro	Cruzeiro (H)	0-2	0.75	1.74	0.71	0	L
17 May	Campeonato Brasileiro	Vasco (A)	3-0	0.79	1.44	0.88	0	L

Fortaleza players: goals against expected goals, 2025

Player	Position	Apps	Minutes	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xG per 90
Emmanuel Martínez	midfielder	14	740	0.12	1	+0.88	0.02
Breno Lopes	attacker	31	2211	5.14	6	+0.86	0.21
Bruno Pacheco	defender	14	1175	0.21	1	+0.79	0.02
Adam Bareiro	attacker	20	856	6.23	7	+0.77	0.65
Tinga	defender	11	750	0.27	1	+0.73	0.03
Tomás Pochettino	midfielder	25	1482	2.28	3	+0.72	0.14
Deyverson	attacker	27	1170	6.29	7	+0.71	0.48
Calebe	midfielder	7	226	0.41	1	+0.59	0.16
Matheus Pereira	midfielder	18	1215	0.46	1	+0.54	0.03
Diogo Barbosa	defender	19	1236	0.56	1	+0.44	0.04
Lucca Prior	midfielder	11	566	0.69	1	+0.31	0.11
Lucas Sasha	midfielder	31	2614	0.87	1	+0.13	0.03
Benjamín Kuscevic	defender	20	1708	0.90	1	+0.10	0.05
Lucas Crispim	midfielder	10	424	0.98	1	+0.02	0.21
Emanuel Brítez	defender	17	1508	0.63	0	-0.63	0.04
José Herrera	attacker	19	1055	3.01	2	-1.01	0.26
Marinho	attacker	17	722	2.01	1	-1.01	0.25
Gastón Ávila	defender	26	2230	1.06	0	-1.06	0.04
Yago Pikachu	attacker	31	1381	3.33	2	-1.33	0.22
Eros Mancuso	defender	29	2292	2.37	1	-1.37	0.09
Juan Martín Lucero	attacker	26	1350	4.39	3	-1.39	0.29
Moisés	attacker	12	379	1.41	0	-1.41	0.33

Campeonato Brasileiro 2025: every team's points against expected points

#	Team	MP	xG	Goals	xGA	Conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
1	Palmeiras	38	57.1	66	38.6	33	63.9	76	+12.1
2	Cruzeiro	38	48.2	55	39.2	31	58.1	70	+11.9
3	Mirassol	38	60.2	63	50.6	39	58.4	67	+8.6
4	Flamengo	38	64.2	78	33.8	27	71.2	79	+7.8
5	Fluminense	38	43.6	50	34.5	39	57	64	+7
6	Botafogo	38	53.2	58	41.9	38	58.3	63	+4.7
7	Bahia	38	54.9	50	49.4	46	55.4	60	+4.6
8	Grêmio	38	47.3	47	58.9	50	46.7	49	+2.3
9	São Paulo	38	45.5	43	48.9	47	51	51	-0
10	Vitória	38	41.1	35	52.8	52	45.2	45	-0.2
11	Bragantino	38	46.6	45	52.1	57	48.7	48	-0.7
12	Juventude	38	34.8	35	62	69	36	35	-1
13	Vasco da Gama	38	46.8	55	56.3	60	46.8	45	-1.8
14	Fortaleza	38	47	43	57.2	58	45.3	43	-2.3
15	Corinthians	38	47	42	47.2	47	51	47	-4
16	Atlético Mineiro	38	46.6	43	43.4	44	53.3	48	-5.3
17	Santos	38	50.2	45	49.4	50	53.7	47	-6.7
18	Ceará	38	38.3	34	41	40	49.7	43	-6.7
19	Internacional	38	54.7	44	44.9	57	58.2	44	-14.2
20	Sport Recife	38	39.1	28	64.2	75	38	17	-21