Leeds United host Newcastle United at Elland Road on Monday 14 September, kick-off 20:00 UK, and it closes Gameweek 4 with the two sides separated by nothing at all. Both have five points from three games. Newcastle United sit tenth on goal difference, Leeds United eleventh. Neither has lost in the league.
The interesting part is what sits underneath those identical records, because the two teams have arrived at the same place by opposite routes.
Leeds United have the better league sequence of the two: a 1-0 win at Nottingham Forest on the opening weekend, then 1-1 at home to Brentford and 1-1 away at Brighton. Three games, one goal conceded in each of the last two, and no defeat. The caveat is the midweek trip to Chelsea in the Carabao Cup, which finished 6-3 and is the only time this season they have been properly opened up.
Newcastle United have not lost in five in all competitions. In the league that reads 2-2 at home to Liverpool, a 2-0 win at Tottenham Hotspur and 2-2 at home to Bournemouth, with cup wins over West Bromwich Albion and Millwall in between. Six goals in three league games is the highest total of any side in the bottom half of the table.
Head to head, these two have a habit of cancelling each other out. Newcastle United won the most recent meeting 4-3 in January, but before that came a goalless draw at Elland Road, a 2-2, another 0-0, a 1-0 and a 1-1. Four of the last six have finished with two goals or fewer.
This is where the two records stop looking alike. Across three league games Leeds United have created 1.30 expected goals a game and conceded 1.67. Newcastle United have created 1.00 and conceded 2.10.
Read that against the scorelines and it is a warning rather than a footnote. Newcastle United have shipped four goals in the league from 6.29 expected goals against. They have been the more dangerous side in front of goal and the more generous one behind it, and both have been flattered by finishing. Leeds United, by contrast, have been roughly what their numbers say they are.
The full season picture for both sides sits on the Premier League xG table, and the form-weighted ordering is on the Premier League power rankings.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The model makes goals at both ends 59.6 percent, against a fair implied 57.6 in the 8/13 on offer. It makes over 2.5 goals 57.1 percent at 4/5. And it makes Newcastle United 32.5 percent to win at 21/10, against an implied 30.6.
All three are rated above their price, which is unusual for one fixture and is mostly a function of that Newcastle United defensive number. Leeds United at 5/4 is the one line the model will not back: it makes the hosts shorter than that price implies they should be, but not by enough to bet.
The honest counterweight is the head to head record above. Two of these sides' last six meetings produced no goals at all. The model does not weight fixture history heavily, and on a card where it likes goals from both directions, that is the risk you are taking.
Everything here came off the player props feed this morning and prices move, so treat them as at time of writing.
One caution on the card markets. The referee is Michael Salisbury, who has taken one Premier League game this season, showing two yellows in it. That is nowhere near enough to build a read on, and our bookings projections do not yet account for the official at all, so the card board here should be treated as the loosest part of the fixture. The season table of appointments is on the Premier League referees page.
Per-90 numbers for every player named here are on the player stats hub.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Newcastle United carry the better attacking output and by some distance the worse defensive one, and Leeds United have been solid at home without being sharp in front of goal. That combination points at a game where both ends are busy rather than one that gets strangled, and the model agrees: goals at both ends at 59.6 percent is the cleanest call on the board.
Prediction: Leeds United 1-2 Newcastle United. Today's cross-match slips, including a Leeds United and Newcastle United goals leg, are on the Daily Acca.
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18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes a settled record for every column, win or lose.