Bragantino host Mirassol at 23:30 UK on Wednesday 7 October at the Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
Mirassol have kept a clean sheet in seven per cent of their matches, last of all 20 clubs in the division. Bragantino have the third-best defensive record in it. The market has still priced this one to within 2.3 points of the model in every market.
Bragantino have lost four of their last five, all of them narrowly: 1-0 at Atlético Mineiro on Saturday, 2-1 at Flamengo, 2-3 at home to Bahia and 2-1 at São Paulo, with a 1-1 at Botafogo in between. The record is better than the run: third of 20 for goals conceded at 1.14 a game, fifth for shots on target and fourth for corners. They are also second of 20 for cards at three a game.
Mirassol beat Botafogo 2-0 and drew 2-2 with Vitória in their last two at home, having won 2-1 at Coritiba. They score the same 1.18 a game as their hosts but concede 1.5, fifteenth of 20, and 68 per cent of their matches have seen goals at both ends, fourth in the division. Team sheets are not confirmed.
The model projects 1.82 goals for Bragantino and 1.01 for Mirassol, a combined 2.83, with the hosts given 19.12 shots to 11.68.
And then it agrees with the market about everything. Bragantino to win is rated 55.1 per cent against a margin-free implied 52.8, the widest gap on the page at 2.3 points. Mirassol are 19.8 against 20.7. Over 2.5 goals is 53.7 against 53.9 and both teams to score is 54.4 against 54.7, both matched to within three tenths of a point.
That is itself worth knowing. When a model and a market land this close across four markets, the fixture is priced and the interest sits elsewhere on the page.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee is Raphael Claus, and unusually for this round he has a record to read: 3.67 yellow cards and 23 fouls a game across six matches this season. That is a busy whistle, and it meets a Bragantino side ranked second of 20 for cards at three a game and a Mirassol side sixth at 2.64.
The cards markets are the clearest thing here by a distance, and the one place the model and the market are not already in agreement.
In the player markets, Fernando has had two or more shots in eight straight games and Lucas Barbosa in six straight at 1.29. Juninho Capixaba has committed a foul in five straight at 1.11, and for the visitors Alesson has fouled in four straight at 1.05 and Igor Formiga has had two or more shots in four straight at 2.75.
Bragantino are at home, create considerably more and face a side that has kept one clean sheet all season. The model has them two points above their price, which is the only disagreement on the fixture and a small one.
The read is a home win, with the cards markets the part of this page carrying real weight given the referee's record and both sides' discipline. The match markets are priced and say so.
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