Updated 15 November 2026.
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Arsenal win | 12.5% |
| 0-2 | Arsenal win | 11.6% |
| 1-1 | Draw | 11.4% |
| 1-2 | Arsenal win | 9.7% |
| 0-0 | Draw | 7.8% |
| 0-3 | Arsenal win | 7.0% |
| 1-3 | Arsenal win | 5.8% |
| 1-0 | Newcastle win | 5.5% |
| 2-1 | Newcastle win | 4.5% |
| 2-2 | Draw | 4.0% |
| Market | Chance |
|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 48% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Newcastle clean sheet | 17% |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 44% |
The most likely score in Newcastle vs Arsenal is 0-1, a 12% chance in the Statz model, ahead of 0-2 at 12%. The Premier League game kicks off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 21 November 2026, and the projection refreshes as the team news lands.
The Statz model projects Newcastle 0.83 - 1.79 Arsenal in goals for Newcastle vs Arsenal, with over 2.5 goals 49% likely and both teams to score 48%.
Statz projects 22 players for Newcastle vs Arsenal on Saturday 21 November 2026, across 9 markets from goals and shots to fouls, cards, tackles and passes. The projections cover the XI the Lineups tab shows, and refresh as the team news lands before the 17:30 UK time kick-off.
Newcastle host Arsenal at St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne on 21 November 2026 at 17:30 in the Premier League. Newcastle's last five results: L W L L D (1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses). Arsenal's last five: W D W W W (4 wins and 1 draw). In their last 6 meetings, Newcastle have won 3, Arsenal 3, with 0 draws.
Newcastle vs Arsenal kicks off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 21 November 2026 in the Premier League, at St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne. St. James' Park holds 52,409 people. The confirmed lineups replace the predicted XIs on this page about an hour before kick-off, and the live score and match stats follow from 17:30.
Newcastle vs Arsenal is being played at St. James' Park in Newcastle upon Tyne on Saturday 21 November 2026, the home ground of Newcastle, which holds 52,409 people. Kick-off is at 17:30 UK time, and the match is part of the Premier League.
Newcastle have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 4 and conceding 7, with results reading L L W L D from oldest to newest. Their last game was a 1-1 draw away to Fulham in the Premier League on 7 November.
Arsenal have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 games, scoring 7 and conceding 1, with results reading W W W W W from oldest to newest. Their last game was a 1-0 win at home to Hull in the Premier League on 7 November.
Across the last 6 meetings Newcastle have won 3, Arsenal have won 3 and 0 were drawn, with Newcastle scoring 6 goals to Arsenal's 4. The most recent was Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle United on 25 April 2026 in the Premier League.
Nico González leads Newcastle with 16 fouls committed across their last 10 games, 1.6 a game, the most of any Newcastle player in that run. The Stats tab of this page ranks every Newcastle player on shots, fouls, cards and tackles over the same games.
Declan Rice leads Arsenal with 5 assists across their last 10 games, 0.5 a game, the most of any Arsenal player in that run. The Stats tab of this page ranks every Arsenal player on shots, fouls, cards and tackles over the same games.
Statz predicts Newcastle vs Arsenal with 11 starters a side: Newcastle line up 4-2-3-1 and Arsenal 4-2-3-1, ahead of the 17:30 UK time kick-off on Saturday 21 November 2026. The predicted XIs are on the Lineups tab of this page, and update to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
Statz's projection model makes Arsenal the favourite with a 60% chance of winning, against 17% for Newcastle and 24% for the draw. Projected goals are Newcastle 0.8 - 1.8 Arsenal.
The most likely score in Newcastle vs Arsenal is 0-1, a Arsenal win, at 12%, from Statz's projection model. Both teams to score is 48% likely and over 2.5 goals 49%. Every scoreline's chance is on the Projections tab of this page.
Statz projects 9 player markets for Newcastle vs Arsenal, from goals and shots to fouls, cards, tackles and passes, for every starter on the Projections tab of this page. The Bets tab prices the best bet builder picks against bet365, and the match projection gives each side's chance of winning.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Premier League | Arsenal vs Newcastle United | 1-0 |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Premier League | Newcastle United vs Arsenal | 1-2 |
| 18 May 2025 | Premier League | Arsenal vs Newcastle United | 1-0 |
| 5 Feb 2025 | Carabao Cup | Newcastle United vs Arsenal | 2-0 |
| 7 Jan 2025 | Carabao Cup | Arsenal vs Newcastle United | 0-2 |
| 2 Nov 2024 | Premier League | Newcastle United vs Arsenal | 1-0 |
Statz's projection model expects Newcastle 0.8 - 1.8 Arsenal in goals. It gives Newcastle a 17% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Arsenal 60%. Both teams to score is 48% likely, over 1.5 goals 74% and over 2.5 goals 49%. The most likely scorelines are 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-0 (8%).
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Arsenal win | 12% |
| 0-2 | Arsenal win | 12% |
| 1-1 | Draw | 11% |
| 1-2 | Arsenal win | 10% |
| 0-0 | Draw | 8% |
Statz's predicted starting XIs for Newcastle vs Arsenal, updated to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
| # | Newcastle | Fouls committed | Arsenal | Fouls committed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | N. González | 16 | K. Havertz | 11 |
| 2 | Y. Wissa | 15 | M. Lewis-Skelly | 11 |
| 3 | M. Thiaw | 8 | G. Magalhães | 8 |
| 4 | A. Dedić | 8 | R. Calafiori | 7 |
| 5 | L. Hall | 7 | D. Rice | 7 |
| # | Newcastle | Shots | Arsenal | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | H. Barnes | 23 | B. Saka | 17 |
| 2 | Y. Wissa | 21 | M. Ødegaard | 16 |
| 3 | J. Willock | 19 | K. Havertz | 15 |
| 4 | L. Hall | 7 | N. Madueke | 13 |
| 5 | W. Osula | 7 | D. Rice | 12 |
| # | Newcastle | Shots on target | Arsenal | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | H. Barnes | 8 | B. Saka | 10 |
| 2 | Y. Wissa | 6 | K. Havertz | 8 |
| 3 | L. Hall | 4 | M. Ødegaard | 6 |
| 4 | J. Willock | 4 | C. Tzolis | 5 |
| 5 | S. Botman | 3 | G. Magalhães | 4 |
| # | Newcastle | Goals | Arsenal | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | H. Barnes | 2 | M. Ødegaard | 3 |
| 2 | J. Willock | 2 | K. Havertz | 3 |
| 3 | A. Elanga | 2 | B. Saka | 3 |
| 4 | J. Murphy | 1 | B. Guimarães | 2 |
| 5 | W. Osula | 1 | G. Magalhães | 1 |
| # | Newcastle | Yellow cards | Arsenal | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F. Schär | 3 | N. Madueke | 2 |
| 2 | N. González | 3 | M. Lewis-Skelly | 2 |
| 3 | Y. Wissa | 3 | G. Magalhães | 2 |
| 4 | J. Murphy | 3 | C. Tzolis | 2 |
| 5 | J. Ramsey | 2 | D. Raya | 1 |
Statz's bet builder picks for Newcastle vs Arsenal: Martin Ødegaard 1+ shots on target (80% hit rate at 1.67); Jacob Murphy 1+ shots (80% hit rate at 1.53); Jurriën Timber 1+ shots (80% hit rate at 1.57). Combined odds 4.01 at bet365.
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1.3 | 12 of 20 |
| Goals against | 1.6 | 13 of 20 |
| Shots | 12.2 | 14 of 20 |
| Shots on target | 3.4 | 17 of 20 |
| Fouls | 12.1 | 8 of 20 |
| Tackles | 13 | 18 of 20 |
| Passes | 419.9 | 12 of 20 |
| Corners | 4.3 | 12 of 20 |
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1.5 | 8 of 20 |
| Goals against | 0.5 | 1 of 20 |
| Shots | 13.8 | 10 of 20 |
| Shots on target | 4.8 | 7 of 20 |
| Fouls | 9.8 | 18 of 20 |
| Tackles | 12.6 | 19 of 20 |
| Passes | 513 | 6 of 20 |
| Corners | 5.6 | 5 of 20 |