Italy host Turkey at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna on 5 October 2026 at 19:45 in the UEFA Nations League. Italy's last five results: W D L W D (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss). Turkey's last five: L W L L L (1 win and 4 losses). In their last 3 meetings, Italy have won 2, Turkey 0, with 1 draw.
Italy vs Turkey kicks off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 5 October 2026 in the UEFA Nations League, at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna.
Italy vs Turkey is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Bologna, the home ground of Italy.
Italy's last five results read W D L W D (oldest to newest): 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss.
Turkey's last five results read L W L L L (oldest to newest): 1 win and 4 losses.
Across the last 3 meetings Italy have won 2, Turkey have won 0 and 1 was drawn. The most recent was Turkey 1-4 Italy on 28 September 2026 in the UEFA Nations League.
Pio Esposito leads Italy with 5 goals across their last 10 games.
Barış Alper Yılmaz leads Turkey with 4 goals across their last 10 games.
Szymon Marciniak is the referee for Italy vs Turkey, averaging 23.0 fouls and 2.0 yellow cards per game this season.
Statz's predicted starting XIs for Italy and Turkey are on the Lineups tab of this page, and update to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
Statz's projection model makes Italy the favourite with a 59% chance of winning, against 20% for Turkey and 21% for the draw. Projected goals are Italy 2.1 - 1.1 Turkey.
The most likely scoreline is 2-1, a Italy win, at 10%. Both teams to score is 59% likely and over 2.5 goals 62%. Every scoreline's chance is on the Projections tab of this page.
Statz AI projects goals, shots, fouls, cards and more for every player and both teams in the Projections tab, and the Bets tab prices the best bet builder picks against bet365.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep 2026 | UEFA Nations League | Turkey vs Italy | 1-4 |
| 4 Jun 2024 | Friendly International | Italy vs Turkey | 0-0 |
| 29 Mar 2022 | Friendly International | Turkey vs Italy | 2-3 |
Statz's projection model expects Italy 2.1 - 1.1 Turkey in goals. It gives Italy a 59% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Turkey 20%. Both teams to score is 59% likely, over 1.5 goals 83% and over 2.5 goals 62%. The most likely scorelines are 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%), 3-1 (7%).
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | Italy win | 10% |
| 1-1 | Draw | 10% |
| 2-0 | Italy win | 9% |
| 1-0 | Italy win | 9% |
| 3-1 | Italy win | 7% |
Statz's predicted starting XIs for Italy vs Turkey, updated to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
| # | Italy | Fouls committed | Turkey | Fouls committed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P. Esposito | 13 | İ. Yüksek | 14 |
| 2 | A. Bastoni | 10 | A. Güler | 13 |
| 3 | S. Tonali | 9 | B. Yılmaz | 12 |
| 4 | N. Barella | 9 | Z. Çelik | 9 |
| 5 | M. Locatelli | 7 | O. Kabak | 8 |
| # | Italy | Shots | Turkey | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P. Esposito | 26 | A. Güler | 36 |
| 2 | M. Kean | 15 | H. Çalhanoğlu | 21 |
| 3 | S. Tonali | 14 | K. Yıldız | 18 |
| 4 | M. Retegui | 11 | K. Aktürkoğlu | 12 |
| 5 | D. Frattesi | 8 | İ. Yüksek | 11 |
| # | Italy | Shots on target | Turkey | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P. Esposito | 15 | A. Güler | 12 |
| 2 | M. Kean | 7 | B. Yılmaz | 5 |
| 3 | M. Retegui | 6 | O. Kökçü | 3 |
| 4 | S. Tonali | 3 | K. Yıldız | 3 |
| 5 | G. Mancini | 3 | C. Uzun | 3 |
| # | Italy | Goals | Turkey | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P. Esposito | 5 | B. Yılmaz | 4 |
| 2 | M. Retegui | 2 | K. Aktürkoğlu | 2 |
| 3 | G. Mancini | 2 | F. Kadıoğlu | 1 |
| 4 | M. Kean | 2 | A. Güler | 1 |
| 5 | A. Bastoni | 2 | K. Ayhan | 1 |
| # | Italy | Yellow cards | Turkey | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A. Bastoni | 3 | K. Aktürkoğlu | 2 |
| 2 | N. Barella | 2 | A. Güler | 2 |
| 3 | G. Donnarumma | 2 | İ. Kahveci | 1 |
| 4 | S. Tonali | 1 | Z. Çelik | 1 |
| 5 | P. Esposito | 1 | H. Çalhanoğlu | 1 |
Statz's bet builder picks for Italy vs Turkey: Riccardo Calafiori 1+ shots (100% hit rate at 1.36); Yunus Akgün 1+ tackles (100% hit rate at 1.08); Merih Demiral 1+ fouls (100% hit rate at 1.29); Zeki Çelik 1+ fouls (100% hit rate at 1.29). Combined odds 2.44 at bet365.
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1.7 | 20 of 54 |
| Goals against | 1.3 | 35 of 54 |
| Shots | 16.3 | 11 of 54 |
| Shots on target | 5.3 | 15 of 54 |
| Fouls | 14.3 | 11 of 54 |
| Tackles | 14.7 | 26 of 54 |
| Passes | 492.3 | 24 of 54 |
| Corners | 3.3 | 38 of 54 |
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 0.3 | 50 of 54 |
| Goals against | 2.7 | 51 of 54 |
| Shots | 16.7 | 9 of 54 |
| Shots on target | 4.7 | 24 of 54 |
| Fouls | 12.7 | 22 of 54 |
| Tackles | 17 | 12 of 54 |
| Passes | 459.3 | 29 of 54 |
| Corners | 5.3 | 13 of 54 |