Italy host Turkey at 19:45 UK on Monday 5 October at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Bologna, a week after winning 4-1 in Istanbul.
Turkey have lost all three in this window and conceded eight. They have scored once. The model still has Italy at five and a half points below what the price implies, which is the widest result-market gap on Monday's card.
Italy drew 1-1 with France on Friday, which ended France's run of clean sheets, and beat Turkey 4-1 the week before. The 0-2 home defeat to Belgium that opened the window is the blot. They rank tenth of 54 for fouls at 14.33 a game and thirty-sixth for corners at 3.33, so the volume comes through the middle rather than from wide.
Turkey have had the group's hardest draw and nothing to show for it: 0-1 at home to France, 1-4 at home to Italy, and 0-3 in Belgium on Friday. Forty-fifth of 54 for scoring at a third of a goal a game, fifty-first for goals conceded at 2.67, and seventh for cards at three a game. Team sheets are not confirmed.
The model projects 2.07 goals for Italy and 1.11 for Turkey, a combined 3.18, and rates Italy 59.4 per cent to win against a margin-free implied 64.9. That is a five and a half point gap on the favourite, in the direction of caution.
Turkey at 5.50 carry 19.8 per cent against an implied 17.1. Under 2.5 goals at 2.60 is projected at 38.5 against 36.3, and both teams to score at 1.62 is 58.6 against 57.6. The goals markets are close; the result market is not.
Part of that is the shape of the competition. Across 363 Nations League matches, both teams score in 46.6 per cent of games against 52.2 per cent in the English leagues, and a 4-1 is a scoreline that clears one line without saying much about the other. Turkey have conceded two or more in all three.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee for this fixture has not been published in our data yet, so there is no card or foul average to read from.
The Turkish defence supplies the firmest lines on the page. Merih Demiral has committed a foul in all five of his last five at 1.29, and so has Zeki Çelik at the same price. İsmail Yüksek has fouled in three straight at 1.10. Turkey are seventh of 54 for cards at three a game and face a side tenth for fouls won.
At the other end, Riccardo Calafiori has had a shot in all five of his last five at 1.50, and Arda Güler has hit the target in four of five at 1.33 and had two or more shots in three straight at 1.40. Güler is carrying most of what Turkey create.
Sandro Tonali has committed a foul in three straight at 1.33.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Italy should win and they beat this same side by three a week ago. The model's caution is about the price rather than the outcome: 59.4 per cent is a long way from what 1.45 asks for.
The read is a home win in which the fouls and cards markets are better defined than the scoreline, with a Turkey back line that has conceded eight in three and three players on unbroken foul runs.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes model projections, not advice.