Win, draw and score chances for S'oton v Derby, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| S'oton win | 69.3% |
| Draw | 18.5% |
| Derby win | 12.2% |
| S'oton or draw (1X) | 87.8% |
| Derby or draw (X2) | 30.8% |
| S'oton or Derby (12) | 81.5% |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% |
| S'oton clean sheet | 39.4% |
| Derby clean sheet | 9.1% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| S'oton 2-0 Derby | 10.3% |
| S'oton 2-1 Derby | 9.6% |
| S'oton 1-1 Derby | 8.6% |
| S'oton 3-0 Derby | 8.2% |
| S'oton 1-0 Derby | 8.0% |
| S'oton 3-1 Derby | 7.7% |
| S'oton 4-0 Derby | 4.9% |
| S'oton 4-1 Derby | 4.6% |
| Stat | S'oton | Derby | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.40 | 0.93 | 3.33 |
| Corners | 5.9 | 4.3 | 10.1 |
| Shots | 19.6 | 10.3 | 29.8 |
| Shots on target | 6.5 | 3.2 | 9.7 |
| Yellow cards | 1.5 | 2.4 | 3.9 |
| Fouls | 8.9 | 12.8 | 21.7 |
| Tackles | 14.4 | 15.0 | 29.3 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 95.8% | 4.2% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 85.1% | 14.9% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 64.7% | 35.3% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 42.7% | 57.3% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 24.3% | 75.7% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 79.2% | 20.8% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 68.2% | 31.8% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 31.9% | 68.1% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 22.1% | 77.9% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 98.6% | 1.4% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 96.3% | 3.8% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 91.5% | 8.5% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 83.6% | 16.4% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 72.3% | 27.7% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 84.8% | 15.2% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 74.9% | 25.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 37.7% | 62.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 74.4% | 25.6% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 34.8% | 65.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 19.6% | 80.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 9.9% | 90.2% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 67.1% | 32.9% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 33.8% | 66.2% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 20.3% | 79.7% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 10.9% | 89.1% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.5% | 0.5% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 98.3% | 1.7% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 95.5% | 4.5% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 90.1% | 10.0% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 81.3% | 18.7% |
Our model makes S'oton favourites in S'oton v Derby on Saturday 21 November, with a 69% chance of a home win, 19% for the draw and 12% for Derby, from projected goals of 2.40 for S'oton and 0.93 for Derby.
The most likely score in S'oton v Derby is 2-0 at 10%, ahead of 2-1 at 10% and 1-1 at 9%, from our model's projection of 2.40 goals for S'oton and 0.93 for Derby, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 56% of the outcomes our model gives S'oton v Derby, making yes the likelier answer, with S'oton keeping a clean sheet 39% of the time and Derby 9%, from projected goals of 2.40 and 0.93.
Our model projects 3.33 goals in S'oton v Derby, with over 2.5 goals at 65% and over 3.5 at 43%, and three goals the likeliest total at 22%.
Our model expects 10.1 corners in S'oton v Derby on Saturday 21 November, 5.9 for S'oton and 4.3 for Derby, putting over 9.5 corners at 56% and over 10.5 at 43%.
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards in S'oton v Derby on Saturday 21 November, 1.5 for S'oton and 2.4 for Derby, putting over 3.5 cards at 54% and over 4.5 at 35%.
The S'oton v Derby simulation turns our projections of 2.40 goals for S'oton and 0.93 for Derby into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.