Win, draw and score chances for MK Dons v Burton, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| MK Dons win | 57.4% |
| Draw | 24.5% |
| Burton win | 18.2% |
| MK Dons or draw (1X) | 81.8% |
| Burton or draw (X2) | 42.6% |
| MK Dons or Burton (12) | 75.5% |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% |
| MK Dons clean sheet | 39.6% |
| Burton clean sheet | 16.4% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| MK Dons 1-1 Burton | 11.7% |
| MK Dons 1-0 Burton | 10.9% |
| MK Dons 2-0 Burton | 10.6% |
| MK Dons 2-1 Burton | 9.8% |
| MK Dons 0-0 Burton | 7.3% |
| MK Dons 3-0 Burton | 6.4% |
| MK Dons 3-1 Burton | 5.9% |
| MK Dons 0-1 Burton | 5.2% |
| Stat | MK Dons | Burton | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.81 | 0.93 | 2.74 |
| Corners | 5.0 | 4.6 | 9.5 |
| Shots | 15.7 | 10.9 | 26.6 |
| Shots on target | 5.2 | 3.4 | 8.6 |
| Yellow cards | 1.9 | 2.0 | 3.9 |
| Fouls | 11.1 | 11.3 | 22.4 |
| Tackles | 14.0 | 13.7 | 27.7 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 92.7% | 7.3% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 76.6% | 23.4% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 29.4% | 70.6% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 14.3% | 85.7% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 73.3% | 26.7% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 35.7% | 64.3% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 16.5% | 83.5% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 94.8% | 5.3% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 88.3% | 11.7% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 78.1% | 21.9% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 75.4% | 24.6% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 49.1% | 51.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 36.0% | 64.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 24.8% | 75.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 35.6% | 64.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 20.3% | 79.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 10.3% | 89.7% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 72.5% | 27.5% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 39.8% | 60.2% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 25.2% | 74.8% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 14.3% | 85.7% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 98.8% | 1.2% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 96.6% | 3.4% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 91.9% | 8.1% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 83.8% | 16.2% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 72.0% | 28.0% |
Our model makes MK Dons favourites in MK Dons v Burton on Saturday 14 November, with a 57% chance of a home win, 25% for the draw and 18% for Burton, from projected goals of 1.81 for MK Dons and 0.93 for Burton.
The most likely score in MK Dons v Burton is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-0 at 11% and 2-0 at 11%, from our model's projection of 1.81 goals for MK Dons and 0.93 for Burton, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 51% of the outcomes our model gives MK Dons v Burton, making yes the likelier answer, with MK Dons keeping a clean sheet 40% of the time and Burton 16%, from projected goals of 1.81 and 0.93.
Our model projects 2.74 goals in MK Dons v Burton, with over 2.5 goals at 52% and over 3.5 at 29%, and two goals the likeliest total at 25%.
Our model expects 9.5 corners in MK Dons v Burton on Saturday 14 November, 5.0 for MK Dons and 4.6 for Burton, putting over 9.5 corners at 48% and over 10.5 at 36%.
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards in MK Dons v Burton on Saturday 14 November, 1.9 for MK Dons and 2.0 for Burton, putting over 3.5 cards at 55% and over 4.5 at 36%.
The MK Dons v Burton simulation turns our projections of 1.81 goals for MK Dons and 0.93 for Burton into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.