No, Telstar have taken 25 points over their last 20 Eredivisie games, within 2.62 of the 22.38 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Telstar create 1.42 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Eredivisie games, 28.47 in all, and have scored 32 goals from those chances, 3.53 more than that xG would expect.
Telstar allow 1.96 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Eredivisie games, 39.28 in all, and have conceded 34 goals from those chances, 5.28 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Patrick Brouwer has the most expected goals (xG) for Telstar over their last 20 Eredivisie games, 3.83 xG in 20 appearances, and has scored 6 goals; Ronald Koeman Jr. is next with 2.37 xG.
Telstar's results and their chances agree, within 2.6 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 28.47 | 32 | +3.53 | 39.28 | 34 | +5.28 | 22.38 | 25 | +2.62 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 14.00 | 12 | -2.00 | 22.12 | 19 | +3.12 | 9.74 | 9 | -0.74 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.18 | 5 | -1.18 | 11.69 | 8 | +3.69 | 4.22 | 2 | -2.22 |
| Home | 10 | 16.95 | 21 | +4.05 | 16.52 | 19 | -2.48 | 14.52 | 14 | -0.52 |
| Away | 10 | 11.52 | 11 | -0.52 | 22.76 | 15 | +7.76 | 7.86 | 11 | +3.14 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Eredivisie | Feyenoord (H) | 3-4 | 1.41 | 3.87 | 0.37 | 0 | L |
| 11 Oct | Eredivisie | ADO Den Haag (H) | 2-2 | 3.27 | 0.76 | 2.63 | 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | Eredivisie | AZ (A) | 1-0 | 0.19 | 2.29 | 0.19 | 0 | L |
| 13 Sep | Eredivisie | Heerenveen (A) | 0-0 | 1.08 | 1.78 | 0.92 | 1 | L |
| 9 Sep | Eredivisie | FC Twente (A) | 1-0 | 0.23 | 2.99 | 0.11 | 0 | L |
| 6 Sep | Eredivisie | SC Cambuur (H) | 2-2 | 2.33 | 1.15 | 2.09 | 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | Eredivisie | Ajax (H) | 0-4 | 0.82 | 2.17 | 0.57 | 0 | L |
| 14 Aug | Eredivisie | Sparta (H) | 1-3 | 1.45 | 2.44 | 0.84 | 0 | L |
| 8 Aug | Eredivisie | NEC Nijmegen (A) | 1-2 | 1.74 | 2.95 | 0.79 | 3 | L |
| 17 May | Eredivisie | FC Volendam (A) | 1-2 | 1.48 | 1.72 | 1.23 | 3 | L |
| 10 May | Eredivisie | Heracles Almelo (H) | 3-0 | 2.20 | 0.80 | 2.26 | 3 | W |
| 2 May | Eredivisie | NEC Nijmegen (A) | 1-1 | 1.06 | 1.87 | 0.86 | 1 | L |
| 22 Apr | Eredivisie | Sparta (H) | 4-1 | 1.36 | 1.15 | 1.52 | 3 | W |
| 11 Apr | Eredivisie | FC Utrecht (A) | 4-1 | 1.05 | 1.53 | 1.04 | 0 | L |
| 4 Apr | Eredivisie | FC Groningen (H) | 0-2 | 1.00 | 2.04 | 0.74 | 0 | L |
| 22 Mar | Eredivisie | PSV (H) | 3-1 | 1.66 | 1.70 | 1.36 | 3 | L |
| 14 Mar | Eredivisie | Heerenveen (A) | 3-0 | 1.89 | 1.82 | 1.43 | 0 | W |
| 8 Mar | Eredivisie | Fortuna (A) | 1-4 | 1.58 | 3.42 | 0.56 | 3 | L |
| 27 Feb | Eredivisie | NAC Breda (H) | 3-0 | 1.45 | 0.44 | 2.14 | 3 | W |
| 22 Feb | Eredivisie | Feyenoord (A) | 2-1 | 1.22 | 2.39 | 0.73 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jochem Ritmeester van de Kamp | midfielder | 7 | 338 | 0.36 | 3 | +2.64 | 0.10 |
| Patrick Brouwer | attacker | 20 | 1599 | 3.83 | 6 | +2.17 | 0.22 |
| Sem van Duijn | attacker | 11 | 876 | 2.10 | 4 | +1.90 | 0.22 |
| Tyrone Owusu | midfielder | 17 | 1250 | 1.35 | 3 | +1.65 | 0.10 |
| Danny Bakker | defender | 11 | 990 | 1.39 | 3 | +1.61 | 0.13 |
| Ronald Koeman Jr. | goalkeeper | 20 | 1800 | 2.37 | 3 | +0.63 | 0.12 |
| Noach Shenkman | midfielder | 6 | 226 | 0.45 | 1 | +0.55 | 0.18 |
| Kay Tejan | attacker | 9 | 222 | 0.54 | 1 | +0.46 | 0.22 |
| Guus Offerhaus | defender | 10 | 900 | 0.72 | 1 | +0.28 | 0.07 |
| Jeff Hardeveld | midfielder | 19 | 1508 | 1.84 | 2 | +0.16 | 0.11 |
| Abdelnour Soualhia | defender | 9 | 810 | 1.25 | 1 | -0.25 | 0.14 |
| Rui Mendes | attacker | 8 | 536 | 1.26 | 1 | -0.26 | 0.21 |
| Tyrese Noslin | midfielder | 11 | 596 | 1.47 | 1 | -0.47 | 0.22 |
| Cedric Hatenboer | midfielder | 10 | 810 | 0.54 | 0 | -0.54 | 0.06 |
| Nökkvi Þórisson | attacker | 10 | 513 | 1.74 | 1 | -0.74 | 0.30 |
| Marvin Peersman | defender | 9 | 797 | 1.14 | 0 | -1.14 | 0.13 |
| Jelani Seedorf | attacker | 19 | 603 | 2.33 | 1 | -1.33 | 0.35 |
| Soufiane Hetli | attacker | 12 | 490 | 1.94 | 0 | -1.94 | 0.36 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 7.6 | 14 | 18.5 | 15 | 6.5 | 14 | +7.5 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 9 | 25.1 | 31 | 9 | 10 | 20.5 | 23 | +2.5 |
| 3 | FC Groningen | 9 | 15.2 | 22 | 18.2 | 19 | 11.6 | 14 | +2.4 |
| 4 | AZ | 9 | 21.7 | 20 | 9.9 | 10 | 18.1 | 20 | +1.9 |
| 5 | PSV | 9 | 22.2 | 27 | 11.2 | 12 | 18.2 | 19 | +0.8 |
| 6 | SC Heerenveen | 9 | 13.6 | 15 | 14.3 | 11 | 12.1 | 12 | -0.1 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 9 | 13.1 | 16 | 16.1 | 18 | 11.3 | 11 | -0.3 |
| 8 | PEC Zwolle | 9 | 10.6 | 10 | 20.5 | 22 | 7.5 | 7 | -0.5 |
| 9 | Ajax | 9 | 24 | 27 | 11.3 | 12 | 19 | 18 | -1 |
| 10 | FC Twente | 8 | 18.7 | 16 | 6.4 | 8 | 18 | 17 | -1 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 13.5 | 13 | 15.1 | 14 | 10.1 | 9 | -1.1 |
| 12 | SC Cambuur | 9 | 12.8 | 13 | 16.3 | 21 | 10.2 | 9 | -1.2 |
| 13 | FC Utrecht | 8 | 11.2 | 14 | 15.4 | 25 | 9.5 | 8 | -1.5 |
| 14 | Go Ahead Eagles | 9 | 17 | 20 | 16.7 | 21 | 12.9 | 11 | -1.9 |
| 15 | ADO Den Haag | 9 | 8.5 | 11 | 17.5 | 20 | 8.1 | 6 | -2.1 |
| 16 | Telstar | 9 | 12.5 | 10 | 20.4 | 18 | 8.5 | 6 | -2.5 |
| 17 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 16.9 | 16 | 18.9 | 22 | 11.7 | 9 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Willem II | 9 | 11.8 | 9 | 20.3 | 26 | 7.9 | 2 | -5.9 |