No, Braga have taken 31 points over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, within 1.06 of the 29.94 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Braga create 1.24 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, 24.74 in all, and have scored 28 goals from those chances, 3.26 more than that xG would expect.
Braga allow 1.06 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, 21.24 in all, and have conceded 26 goals from those chances, 4.76 more than that xGA would expect.
Pau VÃctor has the most expected goals (xG) for Braga over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, 5.06 xG in 19 appearances, and has scored 7 goals; Rodrigo Zalazar is next with 4.57 xG.
Braga's results and their chances agree, within 1.1 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 24.74 | 28 | +3.26 | 21.24 | 26 | -4.76 | 29.94 | 31 | +1.06 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 11.69 | 13 | +1.31 | 9.87 | 13 | -3.13 | 15.40 | 14 | -1.40 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.85 | 5 | -1.85 | 4.53 | 6 | -1.47 | 8.24 | 7 | -1.24 |
| Home | 10 | 13.88 | 15 | +1.12 | 9.29 | 14 | -4.71 | 16.54 | 16 | -0.54 |
| Away | 10 | 10.86 | 13 | +2.14 | 11.95 | 12 | -0.05 | 13.40 | 15 | +1.60 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct | Liga Portugal | Sporting (H) | 1-3 | 1.37 | 1.04 | 1.60 | 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | Liga Portugal | Santa Clara (A) | 0-0 | 0.67 | 0.82 | 1.19 | 1 | D |
| 14 Sep | Liga Portugal | Estoril (H) | 1-0 | 1.98 | 0.82 | 2.14 | 3 | W |
| 10 Sep | Liga Portugal | Estrela (A) | 2-1 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 1.34 | 0 | D |
| 5 Sep | Liga Portugal | Alverca (A) | 1-2 | 2.11 | 1.17 | 1.97 | 3 | W |
| 31 Aug | Liga Portugal | Vitória SC (H) | 1-0 | 0.77 | 0.49 | 1.57 | 3 | D |
| 9 Aug | Liga Portugal | Moreirense (A) | 2-2 | 1.18 | 0.25 | 2.14 | 1 | W |
| 16 May | Liga Portugal | Estrela (H) | 2-2 | 2.17 | 0.55 | 2.41 | 1 | W |
| 11 May | Liga Portugal | Benfica (A) | 2-2 | 0.20 | 3.12 | 0.09 | 1 | L |
| 3 May | Liga Portugal | Estoril (H) | 1-1 | 0.52 | 0.93 | 0.95 | 1 | L |
| 26 Apr | Liga Portugal | Santa Clara (A) | 2-1 | 0.19 | 2.41 | 0.17 | 0 | L |
| 23 Apr | Liga Portugal | Casa Pia (A) | 0-1 | 0.44 | 0.59 | 1.12 | 3 | D |
| 19 Apr | Liga Portugal | Famalicão (H) | 2-2 | 1.67 | 0.56 | 2.17 | 1 | W |
| 12 Apr | Liga Portugal | Arouca (H) | 1-0 | 0.66 | 1.08 | 0.99 | 3 | L |
| 4 Apr | Liga Portugal | Moreirense (A) | 0-1 | 1.23 | 0.60 | 1.85 | 3 | W |
| 22 Mar | Liga Portugal | Porto (H) | 1-2 | 1.07 | 0.96 | 1.44 | 0 | W |
| 7 Mar | Liga Portugal | Sporting (H) | 2-2 | 1.42 | 1.88 | 1.10 | 1 | L |
| 28 Feb | Liga Portugal | Nacional (A) | 1-2 | 3.33 | 1.18 | 2.45 | 3 | W |
| 21 Feb | Liga Portugal | Vitória SC (H) | 3-2 | 2.25 | 0.98 | 2.17 | 3 | W |
| 14 Feb | Liga Portugal | Gil Vicente (A) | 2-1 | 0.79 | 1.13 | 1.08 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Zalazar | midfielder | 9 | 587 | 4.57 | 7 | +2.43 | 0.70 |
| Pau VÃctor | attacker | 19 | 1443 | 5.06 | 7 | +1.94 | 0.32 |
| Fran Navarro | attacker | 18 | 803 | 1.79 | 3 | +1.21 | 0.20 |
| Gabri MartÃnez | attacker | 14 | 749 | 1.80 | 3 | +1.20 | 0.22 |
| Diego Rodrigues | midfielder | 9 | 422 | 0.23 | 1 | +0.77 | 0.05 |
| Gorby | midfielder | 13 | 681 | 0.35 | 1 | +0.65 | 0.05 |
| Ricardo Horta | attacker | 14 | 1115 | 3.52 | 4 | +0.48 | 0.28 |
| Mario Dorgeles | midfielder | 14 | 631 | 0.95 | 1 | +0.05 | 0.14 |
| João Moutinho | midfielder | 19 | 1387 | 0.54 | 0 | -0.54 | 0.04 |
| Gabriel Silva | attacker | 6 | 365 | 0.63 | 0 | -0.63 | 0.15 |
| VÃctor Gómez | defender | 18 | 1568 | 0.64 | 0 | -0.64 | 0.04 |
| Jovan Milosevic | attacker | 4 | 177 | 0.75 | 0 | -0.75 | 0.38 |
| Gustaf Lagerbielke | defender | 16 | 1431 | 0.86 | 0 | -0.86 | 0.05 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 8 | 18.7 | 20 | 7.9 | 4 | 17.2 | 24 | +6.8 |
| 2 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 9.7 | 11 | 14.2 | 10 | 8.6 | 14 | +5.4 |
| 3 | Arouca | 8 | 8.9 | 11 | 11.2 | 7 | 10 | 14 | +4 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 14.4 | 18 | +3.6 |
| 5 | Sporting CP | 8 | 13.8 | 20 | 7.1 | 9 | 15.1 | 18 | +2.9 |
| 6 | Rio Ave | 8 | 6.2 | 8 | 14.9 | 17 | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 8 | 6.6 | 8 | 14.1 | 15 | 6.7 | 8 | +1.3 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 11.2 | 13 | 12.1 | 12 | 10.3 | 11 | +0.7 |
| 9 | Benfica | 8 | 18.6 | 24 | 5.8 | 7 | 18.4 | 19 | +0.6 |
| 10 | MarÃtimo | 8 | 7.1 | 9 | 11.3 | 14 | 8.4 | 8 | -0.4 |
| 11 | Sporting Braga | 7 | 8.8 | 8 | 5.3 | 8 | 11.9 | 11 | -0.9 |
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 10 | 6 | 6.6 | 5 | 12.1 | 11 | -1.1 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 8 | 6.7 | 10 | 11.4 | 11 | 8.2 | 7 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 11.9 | 14 | 11.1 | 15 | 11.5 | 10 | -1.5 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 8 | 7 | 3 | 13.7 | 17 | 7.1 | 4 | -3.1 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 9.6 | 9 | 14 | 18 | 9 | 4 | -5 |
| 17 | Estoril | 8 | 7.4 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 8.1 | 2 | -6.1 |
| 18 | Vitória Guimarães | 8 | 13.3 | 5 | 7.8 | 10 | 14.2 | 5 | -9.2 |