Which sides have got more from their chances than they deserved, and which have got less.
Updated 12 October 2026, after the last game
Vitória Guimarães have the biggest shortfall in the Liga Portugal: 5 points from chances worth 14.2 xPts, a gap of 9.2. At the other end, Porto have taken 24 points from an xPts figure of 17.2, 6.8 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks. How xG is calculated How xPts is calculated
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 4 | 9 | 10.3 | -1.3 | 4 | 2.9 | +1.1 | +5 | 7.3 | -2.3 | 10 | 9.8 | +0.2 |
| 2 | Vitória Guimarães | 4 | 2 | 8.8 | -6.8 | 2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | +0 | 7.2 | -7.2 | 5 | 9.8 | -4.8 |
| 3 | Porto | 4 | 9 | 10.5 | -1.5 | 2 | 3.9 | -1.9 | +7 | 6.5 | +0.5 | 12 | 9.1 | +2.9 |
| 4 | Gil Vicente | 4 | 4 | 7.1 | -3.1 | 2 | 2.2 | -0.2 | +2 | 4.8 | -2.8 | 7 | 8.8 | -1.8 |
| 5 | Santa Clara | 4 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | +5 | 2.5 | +2.5 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 |
| 6 | Sporting CP | 4 | 10 | 6.6 | +3.4 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | +5 | 2.6 | +2.4 | 10 | 7.0 | +3.0 |
| 7 | Nacional | 4 | 5 | 6.4 | -1.4 | 10 | 5.3 | +4.7 | -5 | 1.2 | -6.2 | 3 | 6.4 | -3.4 |
| 8 | Arouca | 4 | 8 | 5.0 | +3.0 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 | +5 | 0.4 | +4.6 | 9 | 5.7 | +3.3 |
| 9 | Alverca | 4 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 | +0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 |
| 10 | Sporting Braga | 3 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 | 3 | 2.3 | +0.7 | +0 | 1.8 | -1.8 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 |
| 11 | Estoril | 4 | 2 | 4.3 | -2.3 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.0 | -3 | -0.7 | -2.3 | 2 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 12 | Academico Viseu | 4 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 | -2 | -0.7 | -1.3 | 6 | 4.9 | +1.1 |
| 13 | MarÃtimo | 4 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | -3 | -2.5 | -0.5 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | Estrela Amadora | 4 | 6 | 4.1 | +1.9 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 | -1 | -2.7 | +1.7 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 |
| 15 | Moreirense | 4 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 | -3 | -2.9 | -0.1 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 4 | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7 | 11 | 7.3 | +3.7 | -5 | -3.0 | -2.0 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 4 | 1 | 3.4 | -2.4 | 13 | 6.9 | +6.1 | -12 | -3.5 | -8.5 | 0 | 3.5 | -3.5 |
| 18 | Famalicão | 4 | 3 | 1.9 | +1.1 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 | -4 | -4.5 | +0.5 | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 4 | 15 | 8.3 | +6.7 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 | +12 | 5.4 | +6.6 | 9 | 8.7 | +0.3 |
| 2 | Porto | 4 | 11 | 8.2 | +2.8 | 2 | 4.0 | -2.0 | +9 | 4.2 | +4.8 | 12 | 8.1 | +3.9 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 4 | 10 | 7.3 | +2.7 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 | +6 | 4.1 | +1.9 | 8 | 8.1 | -0.1 |
| 4 | Estrela Amadora | 4 | 8 | 7.8 | +0.2 | 8 | 4.4 | +3.6 | +0 | 3.5 | -3.5 | 5 | 7.6 | -2.6 |
| 5 | Santa Clara | 4 | 5 | 4.8 | +0.2 | 2 | 2.4 | -0.4 | +3 | 2.4 | +0.6 | 10 | 7.3 | +2.7 |
| 6 | Sporting Braga | 4 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 5 | 2.9 | +2.1 | +0 | 1.8 | -1.8 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 |
| 7 | Famalicão | 4 | 7 | 4.9 | +2.1 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 | +3 | -0.2 | +3.2 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 |
| 8 | Alverca | 4 | 8 | 5.8 | +2.2 | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 | +1 | -1.1 | +2.1 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 |
| 9 | MarÃtimo | 4 | 5 | 4.0 | +1.0 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 | -2 | -1.7 | -0.3 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 |
| 10 | Vitória Guimarães | 4 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 | -5 | -1.7 | -3.3 | 0 | 4.3 | -4.3 |
| 11 | Arouca | 4 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | 4 | 6.6 | -2.6 | -1 | -2.7 | +1.7 | 5 | 4.2 | +0.8 |
| 12 | Casa Pia | 4 | 2 | 3.7 | -1.7 | 4 | 6.8 | -2.8 | -2 | -3.1 | +1.1 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 |
| 13 | Academico Viseu | 4 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5 | 4 | 8.3 | -4.3 | +3 | -3.8 | +6.8 | 8 | 3.6 | +4.4 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 3 | 2 | 2.9 | -0.9 | 3 | 4.4 | -1.4 | -1 | -1.5 | +0.5 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 |
| 15 | Estoril | 4 | 2 | 3.1 | -1.1 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 | -5 | -3.9 | -1.1 | 0 | 3.0 | -3.0 |
| 16 | Moreirense | 4 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3 | -4 | -4.6 | +0.6 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 |
| 17 | Nacional | 4 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 | 8 | 8.7 | -0.7 | -4 | -5.6 | +1.6 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 4 | 2 | 1.9 | +0.1 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 | -4 | -5.7 | +1.7 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.2 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 5 | 13 | 10.6 | +2.4 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 | +9 | 6.4 | +2.6 | 12 | 10.7 | +1.3 |
| 2 | Porto | 5 | 14 | 11.6 | +2.4 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | +10 | 6.4 | +3.6 | 15 | 10.5 | +4.5 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 5 | 12 | 8.3 | +3.7 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | +8 | 3.9 | +4.1 | 11 | 9.2 | +1.8 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 5 | 8 | 6.4 | +1.6 | 2 | 3.1 | -1.1 | +6 | 3.3 | +2.7 | 11 | 9.1 | +1.9 |
| 5 | Sporting Braga | 5 | 5 | 6.8 | -1.8 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 | -1 | 2.3 | -3.3 | 7 | 8.2 | -1.2 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 5 | 3 | 6.7 | -3.7 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | -2 | 1.0 | -3.0 | 5 | 7.6 | -2.6 |
| 7 | Vitória Guimarães | 5 | 2 | 7.0 | -5.0 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 | -4 | 1.2 | -5.2 | 2 | 7.5 | -5.5 |
| 8 | Estrela Amadora | 5 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 | 9 | 6.2 | +2.8 | -2 | 1.1 | -3.1 | 5 | 7.5 | -2.5 |
| 9 | Alverca | 5 | 10 | 7.7 | +2.3 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | +5 | 1.1 | +3.9 | 10 | 7.4 | +2.6 |
| 10 | Arouca | 5 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | +1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 |
| 11 | Academico Viseu | 5 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | 5 | 8.1 | -3.1 | +2 | -1.3 | +3.3 | 12 | 6.2 | +5.8 |
| 12 | Casa Pia | 5 | 3 | 5.4 | -2.4 | 7 | 8.0 | -1.0 | -4 | -2.6 | -1.4 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 |
| 13 | Nacional | 5 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | 15 | 8.9 | +6.1 | -10 | -3.2 | -6.8 | 0 | 5.3 | -5.3 |
| 14 | Famalicão | 5 | 8 | 3.6 | +4.4 | 7 | 7.6 | -0.6 | +1 | -4.0 | +5.0 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 |
| 15 | Estoril | 5 | 3 | 4.3 | -1.3 | 7 | 8.1 | -1.1 | -4 | -3.8 | -0.2 | 1 | 4.4 | -3.4 |
| 16 | Moreirense | 5 | 5 | 4.9 | +0.1 | 9 | 10.0 | -1.0 | -4 | -5.1 | +1.1 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 5 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | 14 | 9.8 | +4.2 | -8 | -5.2 | -2.8 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 |
| 18 | MarÃtimo | 5 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 | 11 | 8.7 | +2.3 | -7 | -5.6 | -1.4 | 1 | 3.2 | -2.2 |
Sporting CP are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in Liga Portugal in 2026/2027, with 20 goals from chances worth 13.8 xG, a gap of 6.2. Benfica are next on 5.4.
Vitória Guimarães are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in Liga Portugal in 2026/2027, with 5 goals from chances worth 13.3 xG, a shortfall of 8.3. Gil Vicente and Casa Pia are next on 4.0.
Porto are the luckiest side in Liga Portugal in 2026/2027, with 24 points from performances worth 17.2 xPts, 6.8 more than their chances deserved. Academico Viseu are next on 5.4.
Vitória Guimarães are the unluckiest side in Liga Portugal in 2026/2027, with 5 points from performances worth 14.2 xPts, 9.2 short of what they deserved. Estoril are next on 6.1.
Benfica would be top of Liga Portugal in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 18.4 xPts from 18.6 xG created and 5.8 conceded across eight matches. Porto are next on 17.2.
Porto have created the most xG in Liga Portugal in 2026/2027, 18.7 from eight matches, 2.3 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Benfica are next on 18.6.
Rio Ave have created the least xG in Liga Portugal in 2026/2027, 6.2 from eight matches, 0.8 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Moreirense are next on 6.6.
Rio Ave have conceded the most xG in Liga Portugal in 2026/2027, 14.9 from eight matches, 1.9 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Academico Viseu are next on 14.2.
Sporting Braga have conceded the least xG in Liga Portugal in 2026/2027, 5.3 from seven matches, 0.8 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Benfica are next on 5.8.
Liga Portugal teams have averaged 1.31 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 71 matches played, and have scored 1.37 goals a game from it. That is down from 1.32 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Liga Portugal teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.42 a game against 1.21 away, a home advantage of +0.20, against +0.20 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 8 | 24 | 18.6 | +5.4 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 | +17 | 12.7 | +4.3 | 19 | 18.4 | +0.6 |
| 2 | Porto | 8 | 20 | 18.7 | +1.3 | 4 | 7.9 | -3.9 | +16 | 10.8 | +5.2 | 24 | 17.2 | +6.8 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 20 | 13.8 | +6.2 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 | +11 | 6.7 | +4.3 | 18 | 15.1 | +2.9 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 12 | 11.0 | +1.0 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 | +8 | 4.9 | +3.1 | 18 | 14.4 | +3.6 |
| 5 | Vitória Guimarães | 8 | 5 | 13.3 | -8.3 | 10 | 7.8 | +2.2 | -5 | 5.5 | -10.5 | 5 | 14.2 | -9.2 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 6 | 10.0 | -4.0 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 | +1 | 3.3 | -2.3 | 11 | 12.1 | -1.1 |
| 7 | Sporting Braga | 7 | 8 | 8.8 | -0.8 | 8 | 5.3 | +2.7 | +0 | 3.5 | -3.5 | 11 | 11.9 | -0.9 |
| 8 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 14 | 11.9 | +2.1 | 15 | 11.1 | +3.9 | -1 | 0.8 | -1.8 | 10 | 11.5 | -1.5 |
| 9 | Alverca | 8 | 13 | 11.2 | +1.8 | 12 | 12.1 | -0.1 | +1 | -0.8 | +1.8 | 11 | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 10 | Arouca | 8 | 11 | 8.9 | +2.1 | 7 | 11.2 | -4.2 | +4 | -2.3 | +6.3 | 14 | 10.0 | +4.0 |
| 11 | Nacional | 8 | 9 | 9.6 | -0.6 | 18 | 14.0 | +4.0 | -9 | -4.4 | -4.6 | 4 | 9.0 | -5.0 |
| 12 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 11 | 9.7 | +1.3 | 10 | 14.2 | -4.2 | +1 | -4.5 | +5.5 | 14 | 8.6 | +5.4 |
| 13 | MarÃtimo | 8 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 | 14 | 11.3 | +2.7 | -5 | -4.2 | -0.8 | 8 | 8.4 | -0.4 |
| 14 | Famalicão | 8 | 10 | 6.7 | +3.3 | 11 | 11.4 | -0.4 | -1 | -4.6 | +3.6 | 7 | 8.2 | -1.2 |
| 15 | Estoril | 8 | 4 | 7.4 | -3.4 | 12 | 12.0 | +0.0 | -8 | -4.6 | -3.4 | 2 | 8.1 | -6.1 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 8 | 3 | 7.0 | -4.0 | 17 | 13.7 | +3.3 | -14 | -6.7 | -7.3 | 4 | 7.1 | -3.1 |
| 17 | Moreirense | 8 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 | 15 | 14.1 | +0.9 | -7 | -7.5 | +0.5 | 8 | 6.7 | +1.3 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 8 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 | 17 | 14.9 | +2.1 | -9 | -8.7 | -0.3 | 7 | 5.5 | +1.5 |