Tondela have the biggest shortfall in the Liga Portugal: 28 points from chances worth 41.6 xPts, a gap of 13.6. At the other end, Porto have taken 88 points from an xPts figure of 70.3, 17.7 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 17 | 41 | 41.2 | -0.2 | 13 | 11.4 | +1.6 | +28 | 29.8 | -1.8 | 39 | 39.5 | -0.5 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 17 | 51 | 38.8 | +12.2 | 11 | 12.5 | -1.5 | +40 | 26.3 | +13.7 | 41 | 38.2 | +2.8 |
| 3 | Porto | 17 | 33 | 31.5 | +1.5 | 6 | 9.9 | -3.9 | +27 | 21.6 | +5.4 | 45 | 35.9 | +9.1 |
| 4 | Sporting Braga | 17 | 34 | 27.9 | +6.1 | 18 | 13.8 | +4.2 | +16 | 14.0 | +2.0 | 30 | 32.1 | -2.1 |
| 5 | Famalicão | 17 | 27 | 27.2 | -0.2 | 12 | 15.0 | -3.0 | +15 | 12.1 | +2.9 | 31 | 31.2 | -0.2 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 17 | 28 | 24.1 | +3.9 | 17 | 16.9 | +0.1 | +11 | 7.2 | +3.8 | 30 | 27.4 | +2.6 |
| 7 | Alverca | 17 | 18 | 23.7 | -5.7 | 23 | 20.2 | +2.8 | -5 | 3.4 | -8.4 | 26 | 25.7 | +0.3 |
| 8 | Santa Clara | 17 | 17 | 18.8 | -1.8 | 17 | 15.7 | +1.3 | +0 | 3.1 | -3.1 | 23 | 25.3 | -2.3 |
| 9 | Vitória Guimarães | 17 | 26 | 22.6 | +3.4 | 19 | 20.5 | -1.5 | +7 | 2.1 | +4.9 | 28 | 25.1 | +2.9 |
| 10 | Tondela | 17 | 13 | 23.0 | -10.0 | 21 | 26.0 | -5.0 | -8 | -3.0 | -5.0 | 13 | 22.1 | -9.1 |
| 11 | Estrela Amadora | 17 | 21 | 22.9 | -1.9 | 24 | 25.9 | -1.9 | -3 | -3.1 | +0.1 | 18 | 21.3 | -3.3 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 17 | 17 | 22.1 | -5.1 | 29 | 27.0 | +2.0 | -12 | -4.9 | -7.1 | 15 | 21.3 | -6.3 |
| 13 | Nacional | 17 | 23 | 22.3 | +0.7 | 23 | 27.7 | -4.7 | +0 | -5.4 | +5.4 | 20 | 21.1 | -1.1 |
| 14 | Arouca | 17 | 27 | 20.5 | +6.5 | 30 | 25.4 | +4.6 | -3 | -4.9 | +1.9 | 25 | 20.6 | +4.4 |
| 15 | Estoril | 17 | 29 | 20.8 | +8.2 | 26 | 28.1 | -2.1 | +3 | -7.4 | +10.4 | 23 | 18.8 | +4.2 |
| 16 | Moreirense | 17 | 20 | 15.9 | +4.1 | 21 | 22.9 | -1.9 | -1 | -6.9 | +5.9 | 27 | 18.7 | +8.3 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 17 | 18 | 16.6 | +1.4 | 26 | 25.4 | +0.6 | -8 | -8.7 | +0.7 | 15 | 18.1 | -3.1 |
| 18 | AVS | 17 | 15 | 15.4 | -0.4 | 27 | 30.9 | -3.9 | -12 | -15.5 | +3.5 | 12 | 14.1 | -2.1 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 17 | 33 | 31.8 | +1.2 | 12 | 14.1 | -2.1 | +21 | 17.7 | +3.3 | 43 | 34.4 | +8.6 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 17 | 38 | 32.3 | +5.7 | 13 | 15.5 | -2.5 | +25 | 16.8 | +8.2 | 41 | 33.5 | +7.5 |
| 3 | Benfica | 17 | 33 | 33.9 | -0.9 | 12 | 18.5 | -6.5 | +21 | 15.4 | +5.6 | 41 | 32.4 | +8.6 |
| 4 | Sporting Braga | 17 | 30 | 28.9 | +1.1 | 18 | 22.3 | -4.3 | +12 | 6.6 | +5.4 | 29 | 27.3 | +1.7 |
| 5 | Famalicão | 17 | 15 | 21.0 | -6.0 | 17 | 19.0 | -2.0 | -2 | 2.1 | -4.1 | 25 | 25.2 | -0.2 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 17 | 19 | 24.4 | -5.4 | 21 | 22.1 | -1.1 | -2 | 2.2 | -4.2 | 20 | 24.8 | -4.8 |
| 7 | Vitória Guimarães | 17 | 13 | 20.4 | -7.4 | 32 | 23.2 | +8.8 | -19 | -2.8 | -16.2 | 14 | 21.8 | -7.8 |
| 8 | Santa Clara | 17 | 15 | 17.3 | -2.3 | 24 | 20.7 | +3.3 | -9 | -3.4 | -5.6 | 13 | 20.8 | -7.8 |
| 9 | Estoril | 17 | 25 | 20.0 | +5.0 | 31 | 25.8 | +5.2 | -6 | -5.8 | -0.2 | 16 | 19.5 | -3.5 |
| 10 | Tondela | 17 | 14 | 20.1 | -6.1 | 34 | 27.2 | +6.8 | -20 | -7.1 | -12.9 | 15 | 19.5 | -4.5 |
| 11 | Nacional | 17 | 14 | 19.2 | -5.2 | 22 | 27.9 | -5.9 | -8 | -8.7 | +0.7 | 14 | 19.0 | -5.0 |
| 12 | Arouca | 17 | 20 | 14.8 | +5.2 | 34 | 26.1 | +7.9 | -14 | -11.3 | -2.7 | 17 | 18.3 | -1.3 |
| 13 | Alverca | 17 | 17 | 15.8 | +1.2 | 29 | 25.4 | +3.6 | -12 | -9.6 | -2.4 | 13 | 18.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | Casa Pia | 17 | 13 | 15.4 | -2.4 | 31 | 27.7 | +3.3 | -18 | -12.3 | -5.7 | 15 | 15.9 | -0.9 |
| 15 | Moreirense | 17 | 17 | 15.0 | +2.0 | 28 | 29.6 | -1.6 | -11 | -14.5 | +3.5 | 16 | 15.8 | +0.2 |
| 16 | Estrela Amadora | 17 | 17 | 15.6 | +1.4 | 32 | 29.6 | +2.4 | -15 | -13.9 | -1.1 | 12 | 15.2 | -3.2 |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 17 | 18 | 13.7 | +4.3 | 28 | 28.8 | -0.8 | -10 | -15.2 | +5.2 | 21 | 14.7 | +6.3 |
| 18 | AVS | 17 | 12 | 15.5 | -3.5 | 40 | 31.9 | +8.1 | -28 | -16.5 | -11.5 | 9 | 13.7 | -4.7 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 5 | 7 | 10.4 | -3.4 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 | +3 | 6.9 | -3.9 | 12 | 10.4 | +1.6 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 5 | 15 | 11.6 | +3.4 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | +10 | 5.7 | +4.3 | 11 | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 3 | Benfica | 5 | 13 | 12.9 | +0.1 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4 | +6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | 11 | 10.2 | +0.8 |
| 4 | Famalicão | 5 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 | +2 | 2.1 | -0.1 | 9 | 8.2 | +0.8 |
| 5 | Tondela | 5 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 | -1 | 0.5 | -1.5 | 7 | 7.6 | -0.6 |
| 6 | Santa Clara | 5 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 | +2 | 1.3 | +0.7 | 8 | 7.5 | +0.5 |
| 7 | Vitória Guimarães | 5 | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 | 8 | 6.0 | +2.0 | -4 | 0.3 | -4.3 | 6 | 7.3 | -1.3 |
| 8 | Arouca | 5 | 10 | 6.3 | +3.7 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 | +4 | 0.3 | +3.7 | 10 | 7.0 | +3.0 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 5 | 3 | 5.5 | -2.5 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 | -2 | -0.1 | -1.9 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 |
| 10 | Nacional | 5 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | 4 | 6.9 | -2.9 | +2 | -0.6 | +2.6 | 9 | 6.5 | +2.5 |
| 11 | Alverca | 5 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | -2 | -0.3 | -1.7 | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 |
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 5 | 3 | 5.8 | -2.8 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 | -5 | -1.2 | -3.8 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 |
| 13 | Rio Ave | 5 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 | 9 | 8.1 | +0.9 | -5 | -1.6 | -3.4 | 3 | 5.9 | -2.9 |
| 14 | Estrela Amadora | 5 | 5 | 6.0 | -1.0 | 8 | 9.3 | -1.3 | -3 | -3.2 | +0.2 | 2 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 15 | Moreirense | 5 | 5 | 5.2 | -0.2 | 8 | 8.7 | -0.7 | -3 | -3.6 | +0.6 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 |
| 16 | Estoril | 5 | 3 | 4.3 | -1.3 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 | -4 | -3.0 | -1.0 | 2 | 4.8 | -2.8 |
| 17 | Sporting Braga | 5 | 7 | 3.5 | +3.5 | 7 | 7.6 | -0.6 | +0 | -4.1 | +4.1 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 |
| 18 | AVS | 5 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 | 5 | 11.6 | -6.6 | +3 | -4.8 | +7.8 | 9 | 4.6 | +4.4 |
Sporting CP overperformed their xG by more than any other side in Liga Portugal in 2025/2026, with 89 goals from chances worth 71.1 xG, a gap of 17.9. Estoril were next on 13.2.
Tondela underperformed their xG by more than any other side in Liga Portugal in 2025/2026, with 27 goals from chances worth 43.1 xG, a shortfall of 16.1. Famalicão were next on 6.2.
Porto were the luckiest side in Liga Portugal in 2025/2026, with 88 points from performances worth 70.3 xPts, 17.7 more than their chances deserved. Sporting CP were next on 10.3.
Tondela were the unluckiest side in Liga Portugal in 2025/2026, with 28 points from performances worth 41.6 xPts, 13.6 short of what they deserved. Santa Clara were next on 10.0.
Benfica would be top of Liga Portugal in 2025/2026 on expected points, with 71.8 xPts from 75.2 xG created and 29.9 conceded across 34 matches. Sporting CP were next on 71.7.
Benfica created the most xG in Liga Portugal in 2025/2026, 75.2 from 34 matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Sporting CP were next on 71.1.
AVS created the least xG in Liga Portugal in 2025/2026, 30.9 from 34 matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Moreirense were next on 31.0.
AVS conceded the most xG in Liga Portugal in 2025/2026, 62.8 from 34 matches, 1.9 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Rio Ave were next on 55.8.
Porto conceded the least xG in Liga Portugal in 2025/2026, 24.0 from 34 matches, 0.7 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Sporting CP were next on 28.0.
Liga Portugal teams averaged 1.32 xG a game in 2025/2026, from the 306 matches played, and scored 1.34 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.24 xG a game in 2024/2025.
Liga Portugal teams created more xG at home in 2025/2026, 1.42 a game against 1.23 away, a home advantage of +0.20, against +0.25 in 2024/2025.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 74 | 75.2 | -1.2 | 25 | 29.9 | -4.9 | +49 | 45.3 | +3.7 | 80 | 71.8 | +8.2 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 34 | 89 | 71.1 | +17.9 | 24 | 28.0 | -4.0 | +65 | 43.1 | +21.9 | 82 | 71.7 | +10.3 |
| 3 | Porto | 34 | 66 | 63.3 | +2.7 | 18 | 24.0 | -6.0 | +48 | 39.3 | +8.7 | 88 | 70.3 | +17.7 |
| 4 | Sporting Braga | 34 | 64 | 56.8 | +7.2 | 36 | 36.2 | -0.2 | +28 | 20.6 | +7.4 | 59 | 59.4 | -0.4 |
| 5 | Famalicão | 34 | 42 | 48.2 | -6.2 | 29 | 34.0 | -5.0 | +13 | 14.2 | -1.2 | 56 | 56.3 | -0.3 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 47 | 48.5 | -1.5 | 38 | 39.0 | -1.0 | +9 | 9.5 | -0.5 | 50 | 52.2 | -2.2 |
| 7 | Vitória Guimarães | 34 | 39 | 43.1 | -4.1 | 51 | 43.7 | +7.3 | -12 | -0.7 | -11.3 | 42 | 47.0 | -5.0 |
| 8 | Santa Clara | 34 | 32 | 36.1 | -4.1 | 41 | 36.3 | +4.7 | -9 | -0.2 | -8.8 | 36 | 46.0 | -10.0 |
| 9 | Alverca | 34 | 35 | 39.5 | -4.5 | 52 | 45.6 | +6.4 | -17 | -6.1 | -10.9 | 39 | 43.7 | -4.7 |
| 10 | Tondela | 34 | 27 | 43.1 | -16.1 | 55 | 53.2 | +1.8 | -28 | -10.1 | -17.9 | 28 | 41.6 | -13.6 |
| 11 | Nacional | 34 | 37 | 41.4 | -4.4 | 45 | 55.5 | -10.5 | -8 | -14.1 | +6.1 | 34 | 40.1 | -6.1 |
| 12 | Arouca | 34 | 47 | 35.3 | +11.7 | 64 | 51.5 | +12.5 | -17 | -16.2 | -0.8 | 42 | 39.0 | +3.0 |
| 13 | Estoril | 34 | 54 | 40.8 | +13.2 | 57 | 53.9 | +3.1 | -3 | -13.2 | +10.2 | 39 | 38.2 | +0.8 |
| 14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 38 | 38.5 | -0.5 | 56 | 55.5 | +0.5 | -18 | -17.0 | -1.0 | 30 | 36.5 | -6.5 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 34 | 35 | 35.8 | -0.8 | 57 | 55.8 | +1.2 | -22 | -20.0 | -2.0 | 36 | 36.0 | +0.0 |
| 16 | Moreirense | 34 | 37 | 31.0 | +6.0 | 49 | 52.4 | -3.4 | -12 | -21.4 | +9.4 | 43 | 34.5 | +8.5 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 34 | 31 | 32.1 | -1.1 | 57 | 53.1 | +3.9 | -26 | -21.0 | -5.0 | 30 | 34.1 | -4.1 |
| 18 | AVS | 34 | 27 | 30.9 | -3.9 | 67 | 62.8 | +4.2 | -40 | -32.0 | -8.0 | 21 | 27.8 | -6.8 |