Boavista have the biggest shortfall in the Liga Portugal: 24 points from chances worth 36.5 xPts, a gap of 12.5. At the other end, Sporting Braga have taken 66 points from an xPts figure of 56.2, 9.8 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 17 | 52 | 41.2 | +10.8 | 12 | 12.4 | -0.4 | +40 | 28.8 | +11.2 | 44 | 39.2 | +4.8 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 17 | 40 | 35.1 | +4.9 | 13 | 11.4 | +1.6 | +27 | 23.7 | +3.3 | 44 | 37.9 | +6.1 |
| 3 | Porto | 17 | 39 | 36.0 | +3.0 | 11 | 12.7 | -1.7 | +28 | 23.3 | +4.7 | 42 | 36.3 | +5.7 |
| 4 | Vitória Guimarães | 17 | 29 | 25.9 | +3.1 | 19 | 14.4 | +4.6 | +10 | 11.5 | -1.5 | 32 | 31.4 | +0.6 |
| 5 | Sporting Braga | 17 | 33 | 27.8 | +5.2 | 19 | 14.6 | +4.4 | +14 | 13.3 | +0.7 | 32 | 31.1 | +0.9 |
| 6 | Santa Clara | 17 | 18 | 24.6 | -6.6 | 14 | 14.1 | -0.1 | +4 | 10.4 | -6.4 | 32 | 30.5 | +1.5 |
| 7 | Famalicão | 17 | 20 | 22.9 | -2.9 | 12 | 13.8 | -1.8 | +8 | 9.0 | -1.0 | 28 | 29.4 | -1.4 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 17 | 18 | 19.4 | -1.4 | 19 | 21.0 | -2.0 | -1 | -1.5 | +0.5 | 20 | 22.8 | -2.8 |
| 9 | Farense | 17 | 10 | 18.0 | -8.0 | 24 | 21.8 | +2.2 | -14 | -3.8 | -10.2 | 11 | 22.8 | -11.8 |
| 10 | Estoril | 17 | 23 | 19.7 | +3.3 | 23 | 21.4 | +1.6 | +0 | -1.7 | +1.7 | 25 | 22.2 | +2.8 |
| 11 | Rio Ave | 17 | 25 | 21.6 | +3.4 | 24 | 27.8 | -3.8 | +1 | -6.2 | +7.2 | 26 | 22.1 | +3.9 |
| 12 | Arouca | 17 | 16 | 19.6 | -3.6 | 19 | 23.5 | -4.5 | -3 | -3.9 | +0.9 | 21 | 21.5 | -0.5 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 16 | 19 | 17.8 | +1.2 | 18 | 18.7 | -0.7 | +1 | -0.9 | +1.9 | 25 | 21.2 | +3.8 |
| 14 | Moreirense | 17 | 22 | 17.0 | +5.0 | 21 | 19.4 | +1.6 | +1 | -2.4 | +3.4 | 26 | 20.8 | +5.2 |
| 15 | Nacional | 16 | 23 | 19.5 | +3.5 | 25 | 22.5 | +2.5 | -2 | -3.0 | +1.0 | 24 | 20.4 | +3.6 |
| 16 | Boavista | 17 | 8 | 18.7 | -10.7 | 31 | 24.4 | +6.6 | -23 | -5.7 | -17.3 | 6 | 20.4 | -14.4 |
| 17 | Estrela Amadora | 17 | 18 | 16.1 | +1.9 | 24 | 20.2 | +3.8 | -6 | -4.1 | -1.9 | 19 | 20.1 | -1.1 |
| 18 | AVS | 17 | 13 | 15.7 | -2.7 | 26 | 26.4 | -0.4 | -13 | -10.8 | -2.2 | 15 | 17.3 | -2.3 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP | 17 | 48 | 35.7 | +12.3 | 14 | 12.3 | +1.7 | +34 | 23.4 | +10.6 | 38 | 34.8 | +3.2 |
| 2 | Benfica | 16 | 30 | 30.9 | -0.9 | 16 | 15.4 | +0.6 | +14 | 15.6 | -1.6 | 33 | 31.1 | +1.9 |
| 3 | Porto | 17 | 26 | 21.7 | +4.3 | 19 | 18.6 | +0.4 | +7 | 3.1 | +3.9 | 29 | 26.6 | +2.4 |
| 4 | Sporting Braga | 17 | 22 | 22.2 | -0.2 | 11 | 18.8 | -7.8 | +11 | 3.4 | +7.6 | 34 | 25.1 | +8.9 |
| 5 | Vitória Guimarães | 17 | 18 | 20.6 | -2.6 | 18 | 19.4 | -1.4 | +0 | 1.2 | -1.2 | 22 | 24.1 | -2.1 |
| 6 | Santa Clara | 17 | 18 | 16.0 | +2.0 | 18 | 20.3 | -2.3 | +0 | -4.3 | +4.3 | 25 | 20.5 | +4.5 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 17 | 20 | 17.1 | +2.9 | 29 | 21.5 | +7.5 | -9 | -4.4 | -4.6 | 14 | 20.3 | -6.3 |
| 8 | Arouca | 16 | 18 | 21.1 | -3.1 | 27 | 24.6 | +2.4 | -9 | -3.4 | -5.6 | 17 | 19.9 | -2.9 |
| 9 | Famalicão | 17 | 24 | 17.6 | +6.4 | 27 | 26.2 | +0.8 | -3 | -8.6 | +5.6 | 19 | 18.8 | +0.2 |
| 10 | Gil Vicente | 17 | 16 | 13.6 | +2.4 | 28 | 21.1 | +6.9 | -12 | -7.5 | -4.5 | 14 | 18.7 | -4.7 |
| 11 | Estoril | 17 | 25 | 19.2 | +5.8 | 30 | 27.1 | +2.9 | -5 | -7.8 | +2.8 | 21 | 18.7 | +2.3 |
| 12 | AVS | 17 | 12 | 18.4 | -6.4 | 34 | 27.8 | +6.2 | -22 | -9.4 | -12.6 | 12 | 17.8 | -5.8 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 17 | 17 | 14.7 | +2.3 | 25 | 25.4 | -0.4 | -8 | -10.7 | +2.7 | 17 | 16.9 | +0.1 |
| 14 | Nacional | 17 | 9 | 17.1 | -8.1 | 23 | 27.6 | -4.6 | -14 | -10.5 | -3.5 | 10 | 16.7 | -6.7 |
| 15 | Boavista | 17 | 16 | 15.9 | +0.1 | 28 | 29.6 | -1.6 | -12 | -13.7 | +1.7 | 18 | 16.2 | +1.8 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 17 | 14 | 14.5 | -0.5 | 31 | 27.5 | +3.5 | -17 | -13.0 | -4.0 | 12 | 16.1 | -4.1 |
| 17 | Estrela Amadora | 17 | 6 | 10.8 | -4.8 | 26 | 23.8 | +2.2 | -20 | -13.0 | -7.0 | 10 | 14.0 | -4.0 |
| 18 | Farense | 17 | 15 | 13.3 | +1.7 | 22 | 29.5 | -7.5 | -7 | -16.2 | +9.2 | 16 | 12.8 | +3.2 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP | 5 | 13 | 9.0 | +4.0 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | +10 | 5.2 | +4.8 | 13 | 9.7 | +3.3 |
| 2 | Gil Vicente | 5 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 | +3 | 3.1 | -0.1 | 8 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
| 3 | Benfica | 5 | 13 | 9.5 | +3.5 | 3 | 6.1 | -3.1 | +10 | 3.4 | +6.6 | 11 | 8.9 | +2.1 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 5 | 8 | 8.1 | -0.1 | 4 | 6.2 | -2.2 | +4 | 1.9 | +2.1 | 11 | 8.0 | +3.0 |
| 5 | Famalicão | 5 | 6 | 8.8 | -2.8 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 | -2 | 2.6 | -4.6 | 4 | 7.9 | -3.9 |
| 6 | Porto | 5 | 10 | 6.8 | +3.2 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 | +5 | 1.3 | +3.7 | 12 | 7.6 | +4.4 |
| 7 | Sporting Braga | 5 | 6 | 6.1 | -0.1 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.0 | +1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 |
| 8 | Arouca | 5 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 | +2 | 0.9 | +1.1 | 8 | 7.6 | +0.4 |
| 9 | Estoril | 5 | 10 | 6.2 | +3.8 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 | +3 | 1.2 | +1.8 | 7 | 7.5 | -0.5 |
| 10 | Vitória Guimarães | 5 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 | 8 | 6.7 | +1.3 | -2 | 0.0 | -2.0 | 6 | 7.0 | -1.0 |
| 11 | Farense | 5 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.6 | -1 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 5 | 7 | 5.5 | +1.5 | 8 | 6.1 | +1.9 | -1 | -0.6 | -0.4 | 6 | 6.2 | -0.2 |
| 13 | Nacional | 5 | 5 | 4.9 | +0.1 | 12 | 6.9 | +5.1 | -7 | -2.0 | -5.0 | 2 | 5.5 | -3.5 |
| 14 | Moreirense | 5 | 8 | 4.2 | +3.8 | 9 | 6.6 | +2.4 | -1 | -2.5 | +1.5 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 |
| 15 | Boavista | 5 | 5 | 5.8 | -0.8 | 12 | 8.6 | +3.4 | -7 | -2.8 | -4.2 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 5 | 5 | 4.8 | +0.2 | 7 | 8.3 | -1.3 | -2 | -3.5 | +1.5 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 |
| 17 | Estrela Amadora | 5 | 2 | 4.9 | -2.9 | 8 | 9.0 | -1.0 | -6 | -4.1 | -1.9 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 |
| 18 | AVS | 5 | 3 | 4.8 | -1.8 | 12 | 9.4 | +2.6 | -9 | -4.5 | -4.5 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 |
Sporting CP overperformed their xG by more than any other side in Liga Portugal in 2024/2025, with 88 goals from chances worth 70.8 xG, a gap of 17.2. Benfica were next on 9.9.
Boavista underperformed their xG by more than any other side in Liga Portugal in 2024/2025, with 24 goals from chances worth 34.6 xG, a shortfall of 10.6. AVS were next on 9.1.
Sporting Braga were the luckiest side in Liga Portugal in 2024/2025, with 66 points from performances worth 56.2 xPts, 9.8 more than their chances deserved. Sporting CP were next on 9.3.
Boavista were the unluckiest side in Liga Portugal in 2024/2025, with 24 points from performances worth 36.5 xPts, 12.5 short of what they deserved. Farense were next on 8.6.
Sporting CP were also top of Liga Portugal in 2024/2025 on expected points, with 72.7 xPts from 70.8 xG created and 23.7 conceded across 34 matches. Benfica were next on 70.2.
Benfica created the most xG in Liga Portugal in 2024/2025, 72.1 from 33 matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Sporting CP were next on 70.8.
Estrela Amadora created the least xG in Liga Portugal in 2024/2025, 26.9 from 34 matches, 0.8 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Farense were next on 31.2.
Rio Ave conceded the most xG in Liga Portugal in 2024/2025, 55.3 from 34 matches, 1.6 a game against a competition average of 1.2. AVS were next on 54.2.
Sporting CP conceded the least xG in Liga Portugal in 2024/2025, 23.7 from 34 matches, 0.7 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Benfica were next on 27.8.
Liga Portugal teams averaged 1.24 xG a game in 2024/2025, from the 304 matches played, and scored 1.28 goals a game from it.
Liga Portugal teams created more xG at home in 2024/2025, 1.37 a game against 1.12 away, a home advantage of +0.25.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP | 34 | 88 | 70.8 | +17.2 | 27 | 23.7 | +3.3 | +61 | 47.1 | +13.9 | 82 | 72.7 | +9.3 |
| 2 | Benfica | 33 | 82 | 72.1 | +9.9 | 28 | 27.8 | +0.2 | +54 | 44.4 | +9.6 | 77 | 70.2 | +6.8 |
| 3 | Porto | 34 | 65 | 57.8 | +7.2 | 30 | 31.4 | -1.4 | +35 | 26.4 | +8.6 | 71 | 62.9 | +8.1 |
| 4 | Sporting Braga | 34 | 55 | 50.1 | +4.9 | 30 | 33.4 | -3.4 | +25 | 16.6 | +8.4 | 66 | 56.2 | +9.8 |
| 5 | Vitória Guimarães | 34 | 47 | 46.5 | +0.5 | 37 | 33.8 | +3.2 | +10 | 12.7 | -2.7 | 54 | 55.5 | -1.5 |
| 6 | Santa Clara | 34 | 36 | 40.5 | -4.5 | 32 | 34.4 | -2.4 | +4 | 6.1 | -2.1 | 57 | 51.0 | +6.0 |
| 7 | Famalicão | 34 | 44 | 40.5 | +3.5 | 39 | 40.0 | -1.0 | +5 | 0.5 | +4.5 | 47 | 48.2 | -1.2 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 34 | 33.1 | +0.9 | 47 | 42.1 | +4.9 | -13 | -9.0 | -4.0 | 34 | 41.5 | -7.5 |
| 9 | Arouca | 33 | 34 | 40.7 | -6.7 | 46 | 48.0 | -2.0 | -12 | -7.3 | -4.7 | 38 | 41.3 | -3.3 |
| 10 | Moreirense | 34 | 42 | 34.1 | +7.9 | 50 | 40.9 | +9.1 | -8 | -6.7 | -1.3 | 40 | 41.1 | -1.1 |
| 11 | Estoril | 34 | 48 | 38.9 | +9.1 | 53 | 48.5 | +4.5 | -5 | -9.6 | +4.6 | 46 | 41.0 | +5.0 |
| 12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 36 | 32.4 | +3.6 | 43 | 44.1 | -1.1 | -7 | -11.6 | +4.6 | 42 | 38.1 | +3.9 |
| 13 | Rio Ave | 34 | 39 | 36.1 | +2.9 | 55 | 55.3 | -0.3 | -16 | -19.2 | +3.2 | 38 | 38.1 | -0.1 |
| 14 | Nacional | 33 | 32 | 36.5 | -4.5 | 48 | 50.1 | -2.1 | -16 | -13.5 | -2.5 | 34 | 37.1 | -3.1 |
| 15 | Boavista | 34 | 24 | 34.6 | -10.6 | 59 | 54.0 | +5.0 | -35 | -19.4 | -15.6 | 24 | 36.5 | -12.5 |
| 16 | Farense | 34 | 25 | 31.2 | -6.2 | 46 | 51.3 | -5.3 | -21 | -20.1 | -0.9 | 27 | 35.6 | -8.6 |
| 17 | AVS | 34 | 25 | 34.1 | -9.1 | 60 | 54.2 | +5.8 | -35 | -20.2 | -14.8 | 27 | 35.2 | -8.2 |
| 18 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 24 | 26.9 | -2.9 | 50 | 44.0 | +6.0 | -26 | -17.1 | -8.9 | 29 | 34.1 | -5.1 |