No, Salzburg have taken 32 points over their last 20 Austrian Bundesliga games, within 2.71 of the 34.71 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Salzburg create 1.84 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Austrian Bundesliga games, 36.87 in all, and have scored 35 goals from those chances, 1.87 fewer than that xG would expect.
Salzburg allow 1.20 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Austrian Bundesliga games, 24.05 in all, and have conceded 20 goals from those chances, 4.05 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Karim Konaté has the most expected goals (xG) for Salzburg over their last 20 Austrian Bundesliga games, 8.25 xG in 18 appearances, and has scored 8 goals; Yorbe Vertessen is next with 6.14 xG.
Salzburg's results and their chances agree, within 2.7 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 36.87 | 35 | -1.87 | 24.05 | 20 | +4.05 | 34.71 | 32 | -2.71 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 21.96 | 22 | +0.04 | 11.64 | 7 | +4.64 | 19.38 | 21 | +1.62 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 9.10 | 12 | +2.90 | 4.93 | 2 | +2.93 | 9.41 | 11 | +1.59 |
| Home | 10 | 18.77 | 23 | +4.23 | 10.50 | 11 | -0.50 | 18.14 | 19 | +0.86 |
| Away | 10 | 18.10 | 12 | -6.10 | 13.55 | 9 | +4.55 | 16.57 | 13 | -3.57 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Austrian Bundesliga | Altach (H) | 3-0 | 2.83 | 0.78 | 2.51 | 3 | W |
| 10 Oct | Austrian Bundesliga | Grazer AK (A) | 0-0 | 0.95 | 1.75 | 0.84 | 1 | L |
| 20 Sep | Austrian Bundesliga | Sturm Graz (H) | 3-0 | 1.29 | 0.61 | 1.88 | 3 | W |
| 11 Sep | Austrian Bundesliga | Ried (A) | 1-1 | 1.46 | 0.65 | 1.97 | 1 | W |
| 2 Sep | Austrian Bundesliga | SK Rapid (H) | 5-1 | 2.57 | 1.14 | 2.21 | 3 | W |
| 30 Aug | Austrian Bundesliga | Austria Wien (H) | 4-1 | 1.13 | 0.59 | 1.78 | 3 | W |
| 16 Aug | Austrian Bundesliga | WSG Tirol (A) | 0-3 | 3.86 | 3.51 | 1.52 | 3 | W |
| 9 Aug | Austrian Bundesliga | Górnik (A) | 1-1 | 2.28 | 0.56 | 2.45 | 1 | W |
| 1 Aug | Austrian Bundesliga | Hartberg (H) | 1-0 | 3.96 | 0.47 | 2.80 | 3 | W |
| 17 May | Austrian Bundesliga | Hartberg (H) | 1-3 | 1.63 | 1.58 | 1.42 | 0 | W |
| 10 May | Austrian Bundesliga | LASK Linz (A) | 2-1 | 1.23 | 0.93 | 1.58 | 0 | W |
| 3 May | Austrian Bundesliga | Sturm Graz (H) | 1-1 | 1.50 | 1.28 | 1.52 | 1 | W |
| 26 Apr | Austrian Bundesliga | SK Rapid (A) | 1-0 | 1.60 | 1.42 | 1.50 | 0 | W |
| 22 Apr | Austrian Bundesliga | Austria Wien (H) | 3-1 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 1.35 | 3 | W |
| 19 Apr | Austrian Bundesliga | Austria Wien (A) | 1-3 | 1.04 | 1.37 | 1.12 | 3 | L |
| 10 Apr | Austrian Bundesliga | LASK Linz (H) | 2-3 | 1.11 | 1.98 | 0.84 | 0 | L |
| 5 Apr | Austrian Bundesliga | Hartberg (A) | 1-2 | 2.67 | 1.55 | 2.01 | 3 | W |
| 20 Mar | Austrian Bundesliga | Sturm Graz (A) | 1-1 | 1.27 | 1.12 | 1.47 | 1 | W |
| 15 Mar | Austrian Bundesliga | SK Rapid (H) | 0-1 | 1.75 | 1.08 | 1.83 | 0 | W |
| 8 Mar | Austrian Bundesliga | SK Rapid (A) | 1-0 | 1.74 | 0.69 | 2.11 | 0 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikolas Veratschnig | midfielder | 7 | 583 | 1.23 | 2 | +0.77 | 0.19 |
| Jesper Lindstrøm | attacker | 3 | 176 | 0.50 | 1 | +0.50 | 0.26 |
| Bartosz Mazurek | midfielder | 9 | 566 | 0.58 | 1 | +0.42 | 0.09 |
| Haris Tabakovic | attacker | 8 | 521 | 3.60 | 4 | +0.40 | 0.62 |
| Karim Onisiwo | attacker | 10 | 299 | 0.63 | 1 | +0.37 | 0.19 |
| Damir Redzic | attacker | 13 | 641 | 0.72 | 1 | +0.28 | 0.10 |
| Kerim Alajbegovic | attacker | 10 | 693 | 1.74 | 2 | +0.26 | 0.23 |
| Kévin Boma | defender | 8 | 710 | 0.85 | 1 | +0.15 | 0.11 |
| Sota Kitano | midfielder | 17 | 1177 | 1.92 | 2 | +0.08 | 0.15 |
| Aboubacar Camara | attacker | 6 | 234 | 1.08 | 1 | -0.08 | 0.41 |
| Maurits Kjærgaard | midfielder | 9 | 624 | 1.16 | 1 | -0.16 | 0.17 |
| Karim Konaté | attacker | 18 | 1025 | 8.25 | 8 | -0.25 | 0.72 |
| Jannik Schuster | defender | 10 | 896 | 1.28 | 1 | -0.28 | 0.13 |
| Frans Krätzig | defender | 16 | 1146 | 1.47 | 1 | -0.47 | 0.12 |
| Enrique Aguilar | attacker | 7 | 122 | 0.56 | 0 | -0.56 | 0.42 |
| Soumaïla Diabaté | midfielder | 9 | 518 | 1.11 | 0 | -1.11 | 0.19 |
| Yorbe Vertessen | attacker | 20 | 1184 | 6.14 | 5 | -1.14 | 0.47 |
| Edmund Baidoo | attacker | 14 | 697 | 2.23 | 1 | -1.23 | 0.29 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SK Rapid | 9 | 18.2 | 26 | 9 | 8 | 16.7 | 24 | +7.3 |
| 2 | Salzburg | 9 | 20.3 | 21 | 10.1 | 4 | 18 | 21 | +3 |
| 3 | Sturm Graz | 9 | 16.9 | 16 | 12.8 | 10 | 14.3 | 17 | +2.7 |
| 4 | Hartberg | 9 | 9.2 | 15 | 15.6 | 19 | 8.7 | 11 | +2.3 |
| 5 | Ried | 9 | 16.6 | 16 | 14.6 | 15 | 12.9 | 14 | +1.1 |
| 6 | Austria Lustenau | 9 | 10.3 | 11 | 17.9 | 19 | 8.2 | 8 | -0.2 |
| 7 | LASK Linz | 9 | 18.9 | 23 | 7.4 | 9 | 19.4 | 19 | -0.4 |
| 8 | Grazer AK | 9 | 9.1 | 7 | 17 | 22 | 10 | 9 | -1 |
| 9 | Austria Wien | 9 | 9.5 | 9 | 15.3 | 18 | 9.1 | 7 | -2.1 |
| 10 | Wolfsberger AC | 9 | 9.5 | 7 | 19 | 18 | 7.4 | 5 | -2.4 |
| 11 | WSG Tirol | 9 | 15.8 | 12 | 14.4 | 14 | 13.6 | 11 | -2.6 |
| 12 | Rheindorf Altach | 9 | 10.6 | 8 | 12.1 | 15 | 12 | 6 | -6 |