Which sides have got more from their chances than they deserved, and which have got less.
Updated 18 October 2026, after the last game
Rheindorf Altach have the biggest shortfall in the Austrian Bundesliga: 6 points from chances worth 12.2 xPts, a gap of 6.2. At the other end, SK Rapid have taken 24 points from an xPts figure of 16.7, 7.3 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks. How xG is calculated How xPts is calculated
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salzburg | 5 | 16 | 11.2 | +4.8 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | +14 | 7.7 | +6.3 | 15 | 11.0 | +4.0 |
| 2 | SK Rapid | 5 | 18 | 12.4 | +5.6 | 2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | +16 | 8.9 | +7.1 | 15 | 10.9 | +4.1 |
| 3 | LASK Linz | 4 | 10 | 7.1 | +2.9 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | +7 | 3.3 | +3.7 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 |
| 4 | Grazer AK | 4 | 4 | 5.9 | -1.9 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | +1 | 3.1 | -2.1 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 |
| 5 | Rheindorf Altach | 4 | 8 | 5.5 | +2.5 | 5 | 2.9 | +2.1 | +3 | 2.7 | +0.3 | 6 | 7.4 | -1.4 |
| 6 | Ried | 5 | 10 | 10.2 | -0.2 | 6 | 8.6 | -2.6 | +4 | 1.6 | +2.4 | 10 | 7.4 | +2.6 |
| 7 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 10 | 9.1 | +0.9 | 3 | 6.1 | -3.1 | +7 | 3.0 | +4.0 | 10 | 6.9 | +3.1 |
| 8 | Hartberg | 5 | 10 | 6.8 | +3.2 | 12 | 6.8 | +5.2 | -2 | 0.1 | -2.1 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 |
| 9 | WSG Tirol | 4 | 4 | 7.8 | -3.8 | 8 | 8.3 | -0.3 | -4 | -0.5 | -3.5 | 2 | 5.4 | -3.4 |
| 10 | Wolfsberger AC | 5 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | 9 | 8.5 | +0.5 | -4 | -3.1 | -0.9 | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 |
| 11 | Austria Lustenau | 5 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | 10 | 10.1 | -0.1 | -5 | -4.4 | -0.6 | 7 | 4.7 | +2.3 |
| 12 | Austria Wien | 4 | 2 | 4.4 | -2.4 | 6 | 7.9 | -1.9 | -4 | -3.4 | -0.6 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LASK Linz | 5 | 13 | 12.0 | +1.0 | 6 | 3.6 | +2.4 | +7 | 8.4 | -1.4 | 10 | 11.6 | -1.6 |
| 2 | WSG Tirol | 5 | 8 | 8.2 | -0.2 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | +2 | 2.6 | -0.6 | 9 | 8.6 | +0.4 |
| 3 | Sturm Graz | 5 | 6 | 7.4 | -1.4 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | -1 | 0.6 | -1.6 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 |
| 4 | Salzburg | 4 | 5 | 8.6 | -3.6 | 2 | 6.5 | -4.5 | +3 | 2.1 | +0.9 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 |
| 5 | SK Rapid | 4 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | +2 | 0.3 | +1.7 | 9 | 5.8 | +3.2 |
| 6 | Austria Wien | 5 | 7 | 5.3 | +1.7 | 12 | 7.4 | +4.6 | -5 | -2.1 | -2.9 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 |
| 7 | Ried | 4 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 | 9 | 6.2 | +2.8 | -3 | 0.2 | -3.2 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 |
| 8 | Rheindorf Altach | 5 | 0 | 5.0 | -5.0 | 10 | 8.7 | +1.3 | -10 | -3.6 | -6.4 | 0 | 4.8 | -4.8 |
| 9 | Austria Lustenau | 4 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | 9 | 7.9 | +1.1 | -3 | -3.3 | +0.3 | 1 | 3.5 | -2.5 |
| 10 | Grazer AK | 5 | 3 | 3.3 | -0.3 | 19 | 13.9 | +5.1 | -16 | -10.6 | -5.4 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6 |
| 11 | Hartberg | 4 | 5 | 2.4 | +2.6 | 7 | 8.8 | -1.8 | -2 | -6.4 | +4.4 | 4 | 2.2 | +1.8 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 4 | 2 | 3.7 | -1.7 | 9 | 10.7 | -1.7 | -7 | -7.0 | +0.0 | 1 | 1.7 | -0.7 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LASK Linz | 5 | 11 | 10.3 | +0.7 | 8 | 5.8 | +2.2 | +3 | 4.6 | -1.6 | 7 | 9.5 | -2.5 |
| 2 | Salzburg | 5 | 12 | 8.5 | +3.5 | 2 | 4.9 | -2.9 | +10 | 3.6 | +6.4 | 11 | 9.2 | +1.8 |
| 3 | SK Rapid | 5 | 12 | 7.4 | +4.6 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | +6 | 2.0 | +4.0 | 12 | 8.3 | +3.7 |
| 4 | WSG Tirol | 5 | 6 | 7.7 | -1.7 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 | -1 | 1.5 | -2.5 | 7 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 5 | Sturm Graz | 5 | 11 | 9.4 | +1.6 | 8 | 8.3 | -0.3 | +3 | 1.1 | +1.9 | 9 | 7.0 | +2.0 |
| 6 | Ried | 5 | 12 | 10.6 | +1.4 | 8 | 9.9 | -1.9 | +4 | 0.7 | +3.3 | 10 | 6.8 | +3.2 |
| 7 | Grazer AK | 5 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | 9 | 6.7 | +2.3 | -4 | -1.1 | -2.9 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 |
| 8 | Austria Wien | 5 | 6 | 7.7 | -1.7 | 9 | 8.3 | +0.7 | -3 | -0.7 | -2.3 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 |
| 9 | Hartberg | 5 | 13 | 6.9 | +6.1 | 13 | 7.0 | +6.0 | +0 | -0.1 | +0.1 | 8 | 6.4 | +1.6 |
| 10 | Rheindorf Altach | 5 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 | 10 | 6.2 | +3.8 | -6 | -1.7 | -4.3 | 3 | 6.2 | -3.2 |
| 11 | Wolfsberger AC | 5 | 2 | 5.2 | -3.2 | 15 | 11.6 | +3.4 | -13 | -6.4 | -6.6 | 0 | 3.4 | -3.4 |
| 12 | Austria Lustenau | 5 | 6 | 4.2 | +1.8 | 14 | 11.2 | +2.8 | -8 | -6.9 | -1.1 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 |
SK Rapid are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2026/2027, with 26 goals from chances worth 18.2 xG, a gap of 7.8. Hartberg are next on 5.8.
WSG Tirol are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2026/2027, with 12 goals from chances worth 16.0 xG, a shortfall of 4.0. Rheindorf Altach are next on 2.6.
SK Rapid are the luckiest side in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2026/2027, with 24 points from performances worth 16.7 xPts, 7.3 more than their chances deserved. Salzburg are next on 3.2.
Rheindorf Altach are the unluckiest side in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2026/2027, with 6 points from performances worth 12.2 xPts, 6.2 short of what they deserved. WSG Tirol are next on 3.0.
LASK Linz would be top of the Austrian Bundesliga in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 19.4 xPts from 19.1 xG created and 7.4 conceded across nine matches. Salzburg are next on 17.8.
Salzburg have created the most xG in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2026/2027, 19.8 from nine matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.5. LASK Linz are next on 19.1.
Wolfsberger AC have created the least xG in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2026/2027, 9.1 from nine matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Grazer AK and Hartberg are next on 9.2.
Wolfsberger AC have conceded the most xG in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2026/2027, 19.2 from nine matches, 2.1 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Austria Lustenau are next on 18.0.
LASK Linz have conceded the least xG in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2026/2027, 7.4 from nine matches, 0.8 a game against a competition average of 1.5. SK Rapid are next on 9.0.
Austrian Bundesliga teams have averaged 1.52 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 54 matches played, and have scored 1.58 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.34 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Austrian Bundesliga teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.69 a game against 1.35 away, a home advantage of +0.35, against +0.25 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LASK Linz | 9 | 23 | 19.1 | +3.9 | 9 | 7.4 | +1.6 | +14 | 11.6 | +2.4 | 19 | 19.4 | -0.4 |
| 2 | Salzburg | 9 | 21 | 19.8 | +1.2 | 4 | 10.0 | -6.0 | +17 | 9.7 | +7.3 | 21 | 17.8 | +3.2 |
| 3 | SK Rapid | 9 | 26 | 18.2 | +7.8 | 8 | 9.0 | -1.0 | +18 | 9.3 | +8.7 | 24 | 16.7 | +7.3 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 9 | 16 | 16.5 | -0.5 | 10 | 12.9 | -2.9 | +6 | 3.6 | +2.4 | 17 | 14.3 | +2.7 |
| 5 | WSG Tirol | 9 | 12 | 16.0 | -4.0 | 14 | 13.9 | +0.1 | -2 | 2.1 | -4.1 | 11 | 14.0 | -3.0 |
| 6 | Ried | 9 | 16 | 16.6 | -0.6 | 15 | 14.8 | +0.2 | +1 | 1.8 | -0.8 | 14 | 12.8 | +1.2 |
| 7 | Rheindorf Altach | 9 | 8 | 10.6 | -2.6 | 15 | 11.5 | +3.5 | -7 | -0.9 | -6.1 | 6 | 12.2 | -6.2 |
| 8 | Grazer AK | 9 | 7 | 9.2 | -2.2 | 22 | 16.7 | +5.3 | -15 | -7.5 | -7.5 | 9 | 10.0 | -1.0 |
| 9 | Austria Wien | 9 | 9 | 9.7 | -0.7 | 18 | 15.3 | +2.7 | -9 | -5.5 | -3.5 | 7 | 9.2 | -2.2 |
| 10 | Hartberg | 9 | 15 | 9.2 | +5.8 | 19 | 15.6 | +3.4 | -4 | -6.4 | +2.4 | 11 | 8.7 | +2.3 |
| 11 | Austria Lustenau | 9 | 11 | 10.3 | +0.7 | 19 | 18.0 | +1.0 | -8 | -7.7 | -0.3 | 8 | 8.2 | -0.2 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 9 | 7 | 9.1 | -2.1 | 18 | 19.2 | -1.2 | -11 | -10.1 | -0.9 | 5 | 7.0 | -2.0 |