Blau-Weiß Linz have the biggest shortfall in the Austrian Bundesliga: 29 points from chances worth 40.8 xPts, a gap of 11.8. At the other end, Hartberg have taken 42 points from an xPts figure of 32.4, 9.6 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LASK Linz | 16 | 28 | 31.0 | -3.0 | 19 | 17.3 | +1.7 | +9 | 13.6 | -4.6 | 33 | 30.4 | +2.6 |
| 2 | Salzburg | 16 | 29 | 30.5 | -1.5 | 23 | 21.6 | +1.4 | +6 | 8.8 | -2.8 | 22 | 26.7 | -4.7 |
| 3 | Ried | 16 | 21 | 25.6 | -4.6 | 18 | 20.5 | -2.5 | +3 | 5.1 | -2.1 | 27 | 26.1 | +0.9 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 16 | 17 | 22.9 | -5.9 | 17 | 17.3 | -0.3 | +0 | 5.7 | -5.7 | 23 | 25.8 | -2.8 |
| 5 | SK Rapid | 16 | 19 | 21.9 | -2.9 | 20 | 16.9 | +3.1 | -1 | 5.0 | -6.0 | 23 | 25.4 | -2.4 |
| 6 | WSG Tirol | 16 | 26 | 22.6 | +3.4 | 23 | 19.8 | +3.2 | +3 | 2.9 | +0.1 | 26 | 24.5 | +1.5 |
| 7 | Austria Wien | 16 | 19 | 20.0 | -1.0 | 27 | 16.7 | +10.3 | -8 | 3.3 | -11.3 | 21 | 24.2 | -3.2 |
| 8 | Blau-Weiß Linz | 16 | 28 | 25.4 | +2.6 | 23 | 20.1 | +2.9 | +5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | 22 | 24.1 | -2.1 |
| 9 | Rheindorf Altach | 16 | 21 | 22.4 | -1.4 | 15 | 18.8 | -3.8 | +6 | 3.6 | +2.4 | 30 | 23.7 | +6.3 |
| 10 | Grazer AK | 16 | 26 | 19.3 | +6.7 | 20 | 19.1 | +0.9 | +6 | 0.3 | +5.7 | 25 | 22.7 | +2.3 |
| 11 | Wolfsberger AC | 16 | 20 | 19.8 | +0.2 | 15 | 19.1 | -4.1 | +5 | 0.6 | +4.4 | 24 | 22.6 | +1.4 |
| 12 | Hartberg | 16 | 19 | 18.8 | +0.2 | 25 | 25.8 | -0.8 | -6 | -7.0 | +1.0 | 17 | 17.9 | -0.9 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sturm Graz | 16 | 34 | 29.1 | +4.9 | 18 | 22.6 | -4.6 | +16 | 6.6 | +9.4 | 33 | 26.5 | +6.5 |
| 2 | Salzburg | 16 | 27 | 25.2 | +1.8 | 18 | 20.0 | -2.0 | +9 | 5.2 | +3.8 | 26 | 25.1 | +0.9 |
| 3 | Austria Wien | 16 | 26 | 19.1 | +6.9 | 23 | 19.0 | +4.0 | +3 | 0.1 | +2.9 | 26 | 21.7 | +4.3 |
| 4 | SK Rapid | 16 | 17 | 22.2 | -5.2 | 21 | 23.0 | -2.0 | -4 | -0.8 | -3.2 | 21 | 21.4 | -0.4 |
| 5 | Ried | 16 | 17 | 23.2 | -6.2 | 24 | 26.3 | -2.3 | -7 | -3.2 | -3.8 | 15 | 20.9 | -5.9 |
| 6 | LASK Linz | 16 | 28 | 22.4 | +5.6 | 23 | 26.9 | -3.9 | +5 | -4.5 | +9.5 | 25 | 19.7 | +5.3 |
| 7 | Grazer AK | 16 | 16 | 16.4 | -0.4 | 25 | 20.7 | +4.3 | -9 | -4.3 | -4.7 | 12 | 18.9 | -6.9 |
| 8 | Rheindorf Altach | 16 | 15 | 14.4 | +0.6 | 24 | 21.1 | +2.9 | -9 | -6.7 | -2.3 | 12 | 17.5 | -5.5 |
| 9 | Blau-Weiß Linz | 16 | 9 | 16.2 | -7.2 | 26 | 23.6 | +2.4 | -17 | -7.4 | -9.6 | 7 | 16.7 | -9.7 |
| 10 | WSG Tirol | 16 | 14 | 14.7 | -0.7 | 29 | 24.9 | +4.1 | -15 | -10.3 | -4.7 | 14 | 16.5 | -2.5 |
| 11 | Wolfsberger AC | 16 | 21 | 17.2 | +3.8 | 27 | 27.3 | -0.3 | -6 | -10.1 | +4.1 | 17 | 16.2 | +0.8 |
| 12 | Hartberg | 16 | 21 | 12.9 | +8.1 | 15 | 24.6 | -9.6 | +6 | -11.7 | +17.7 | 25 | 14.4 | +10.6 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sturm Graz | 5 | 9 | 8.6 | +0.4 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | +4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 9 | 9.3 | -0.3 |
| 2 | LASK Linz | 5 | 14 | 7.8 | +6.2 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 | +10 | 1.8 | +8.2 | 13 | 8.1 | +4.9 |
| 3 | Wolfsberger AC | 5 | 8 | 6.7 | +1.3 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | +4 | 2.1 | +1.9 | 12 | 7.9 | +4.1 |
| 4 | Salzburg | 5 | 6 | 7.0 | -1.0 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 | -2 | 0.8 | -2.8 | 4 | 7.4 | -3.4 |
| 5 | Grazer AK | 5 | 10 | 5.2 | +4.8 | 5 | 4.6 | +0.4 | +5 | 0.6 | +4.4 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3 |
| 6 | Blau-Weiß Linz | 5 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 | 6 | 5.9 | +0.1 | +1 | 0.4 | +0.6 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | Rheindorf Altach | 5 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 | 9 | 6.0 | +3.0 | -4 | 0.2 | -4.2 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 |
| 8 | SK Rapid | 5 | 2 | 5.7 | -3.7 | 9 | 6.9 | +2.1 | -7 | -1.2 | -5.8 | 3 | 6.5 | -3.5 |
| 9 | WSG Tirol | 5 | 2 | 3.9 | -1.9 | 7 | 4.4 | +2.6 | -5 | -0.4 | -4.6 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 |
| 10 | Ried | 5 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 | 5 | 9.3 | -4.3 | -1 | -2.9 | +1.9 | 6 | 5.9 | +0.1 |
| 11 | Austria Wien | 5 | 5 | 4.0 | +1.0 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 | -2 | -1.3 | -0.7 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 |
| 12 | Hartberg | 5 | 8 | 4.1 | +3.9 | 11 | 8.0 | +3.0 | -3 | -3.9 | +0.9 | 6 | 4.2 | +1.8 |
Hartberg overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2025/2026, with 40 goals from chances worth 31.7 xG, a gap of 8.3. Grazer AK were next on 6.3.
Ried underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2025/2026, with 38 goals from chances worth 48.7 xG, a shortfall of 10.7. SK Rapid were next on 8.1.
Hartberg were the luckiest side in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2025/2026, with 42 points from performances worth 32.4 xPts, 9.6 more than their chances deserved. LASK Linz were next on 7.9.
Blau-Weiß Linz were the unluckiest side in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2025/2026, with 29 points from performances worth 40.8 xPts, 11.8 short of what they deserved. Ried were next on 5.0.
Sturm Graz would be top of the Austrian Bundesliga in 2025/2026 on expected points, with 52.3 xPts from 52.1 xG created and 39.8 conceded across 32 matches. Salzburg were next on 51.9.
Salzburg created the most xG in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2025/2026, 55.7 from 32 matches, 1.7 a game against a competition average of 1.3. LASK Linz were next on 53.3.
Hartberg created the least xG in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2025/2026, 31.7 from 32 matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Grazer AK were next on 35.7.
Hartberg conceded the most xG in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2025/2026, 50.5 from 32 matches, 1.6 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Ried were next on 46.8.
Austria Wien conceded the least xG in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2025/2026, 35.8 from 32 matches, 1.1 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Sturm Graz and Grazer AK were next on 39.8.
Austrian Bundesliga teams averaged 1.34 xG a game in 2025/2026, from the 192 matches played, and scored 1.35 goals a game from it. That is down from 1.37 xG a game in 2024/2025.
Austrian Bundesliga teams created more xG at home in 2025/2026, 1.46 a game against 1.21 away, a home advantage of +0.25, against +0.36 in 2024/2025.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sturm Graz | 32 | 51 | 52.1 | -1.1 | 35 | 39.8 | -4.8 | +16 | 12.2 | +3.8 | 56 | 52.3 | +3.7 |
| 2 | Salzburg | 32 | 56 | 55.7 | +0.3 | 41 | 41.6 | -0.6 | +15 | 14.1 | +0.9 | 48 | 51.9 | -3.9 |
| 3 | LASK Linz | 32 | 56 | 53.3 | +2.7 | 42 | 44.2 | -2.2 | +14 | 9.1 | +4.9 | 58 | 50.1 | +7.9 |
| 4 | Ried | 32 | 38 | 48.7 | -10.7 | 42 | 46.8 | -4.8 | -4 | 2.0 | -6.0 | 42 | 47.0 | -5.0 |
| 5 | SK Rapid | 32 | 36 | 44.1 | -8.1 | 41 | 39.9 | +1.1 | -5 | 4.2 | -9.2 | 44 | 46.8 | -2.8 |
| 6 | Austria Wien | 32 | 45 | 39.1 | +5.9 | 50 | 35.8 | +14.2 | -5 | 3.4 | -8.4 | 47 | 45.9 | +1.1 |
| 7 | Grazer AK | 32 | 42 | 35.7 | +6.3 | 45 | 39.8 | +5.2 | -3 | -4.1 | +1.1 | 37 | 41.6 | -4.6 |
| 8 | Rheindorf Altach | 32 | 36 | 36.8 | -0.8 | 39 | 39.9 | -0.9 | -3 | -3.2 | +0.2 | 42 | 41.2 | +0.8 |
| 9 | WSG Tirol | 32 | 40 | 37.3 | +2.7 | 52 | 44.7 | +7.3 | -12 | -7.4 | -4.6 | 40 | 41.0 | -1.0 |
| 10 | Blau-Weiß Linz | 32 | 37 | 41.6 | -4.6 | 49 | 43.7 | +5.3 | -12 | -2.1 | -9.9 | 29 | 40.8 | -11.8 |
| 11 | Wolfsberger AC | 32 | 41 | 36.9 | +4.1 | 42 | 46.5 | -4.5 | -1 | -9.5 | +8.5 | 41 | 38.7 | +2.3 |
| 12 | Hartberg | 32 | 40 | 31.7 | +8.3 | 40 | 50.5 | -10.5 | +0 | -18.8 | +18.8 | 42 | 32.4 | +9.6 |