No, Rio Ave have taken 23 points over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, within 1.85 of the 21.15 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Rio Ave create 1.09 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, 21.74 in all, and have scored 20 goals from those chances, 1.74 fewer than that xG would expect.
Rio Ave allow 1.58 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, 31.63 in all, and have conceded 31 goals from those chances, 0.63 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Jalen Blesa has the most expected goals (xG) for Rio Ave over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, 5.76 xG in 19 appearances, and has scored 9 goals; Tamble Monteiro is next with 3.13 xG.
Rio Ave's results and their chances agree, within 1.9 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 21.74 | 20 | -1.74 | 31.63 | 31 | +0.63 | 21.15 | 23 | +1.85 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 7.85 | 10 | +2.15 | 19.18 | 22 | -2.82 | 6.77 | 8 | +1.23 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 4.63 | 6 | +1.37 | 9.82 | 14 | -4.18 | 3.85 | 4 | +0.15 |
| Home | 10 | 14.91 | 12 | -2.91 | 15.23 | 20 | -4.77 | 13.59 | 10 | -3.59 |
| Away | 10 | 6.83 | 8 | +1.17 | 16.40 | 11 | +5.40 | 7.56 | 13 | +5.44 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Liga Portugal | Nacional (H) | 3-2 | 1.67 | 1.20 | 1.69 | 3 | W |
| 19 Sep | Liga Portugal | Alverca (A) | 1-0 | 0.47 | 2.40 | 0.31 | 0 | L |
| 14 Sep | Liga Portugal | Estrela (H) | 3-3 | 1.28 | 2.73 | 0.63 | 1 | L |
| 6 Sep | Liga Portugal | Santa Clara (A) | 4-0 | 0.68 | 2.13 | 0.50 | 0 | L |
| 28 Aug | Liga Portugal | Sporting (H) | 0-4 | 0.53 | 1.36 | 0.72 | 0 | L |
| 22 Aug | Liga Portugal | Estoril (A) | 0-2 | 0.60 | 1.45 | 0.73 | 3 | L |
| 15 Aug | Liga Portugal | Porto (H) | 0-2 | 0.78 | 1.99 | 0.62 | 0 | L |
| 9 Aug | Liga Portugal | Gil Vicente (A) | 1-0 | 0.15 | 1.63 | 0.30 | 0 | L |
| 16 May | Liga Portugal | Casa Pia (A) | 1-1 | 0.50 | 2.44 | 0.31 | 1 | L |
| 11 May | Liga Portugal | Sporting (H) | 1-4 | 1.19 | 1.85 | 0.96 | 0 | L |
| 3 May | Liga Portugal | Gil Vicente (H) | 0-0 | 2.12 | 0.83 | 2.21 | 1 | W |
| 25 Apr | Liga Portugal | Vitória SC (A) | 2-0 | 0.45 | 1.55 | 0.56 | 0 | L |
| 17 Apr | Liga Portugal | AVS (H) | 2-2 | 2.25 | 1.40 | 1.90 | 1 | W |
| 11 Apr | Liga Portugal | Santa Clara (A) | 0-2 | 0.25 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 3 | L |
| 4 Apr | Liga Portugal | Alverca (H) | 1-2 | 1.55 | 1.38 | 1.49 | 0 | W |
| 22 Mar | Liga Portugal | Estoril (A) | 1-2 | 1.97 | 1.18 | 1.88 | 3 | W |
| 15 Mar | Liga Portugal | Estrela (H) | 2-1 | 2.47 | 1.53 | 1.93 | 3 | W |
| 9 Mar | Liga Portugal | Tondela (A) | 0-1 | 1.28 | 0.62 | 1.86 | 3 | W |
| 1 Mar | Liga Portugal | Famalicão (H) | 0-0 | 1.07 | 0.96 | 1.44 | 1 | W |
| 22 Feb | Liga Portugal | Porto (A) | 1-0 | 0.48 | 2.19 | 0.37 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Blesa | attacker | 19 | 1664 | 5.76 | 9 | +3.24 | 0.31 |
| R. Galčík | attacker | 8 | 325 | 0.24 | 1 | +0.76 | 0.07 |
| Tamás Nikitscher | midfielder | 19 | 1437 | 0.26 | 1 | +0.74 | 0.02 |
| Francisco Petrasso | defender | 13 | 791 | 0.28 | 1 | +0.72 | 0.03 |
| Sebastian Clemmensen | attacker | 4 | 192 | 0.30 | 1 | +0.70 | 0.14 |
| Jakub Brabec | defender | 13 | 1023 | 0.36 | 1 | +0.64 | 0.03 |
| Ole Pohlmann | midfielder | 11 | 626 | 1.00 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Andreas Ntoi | defender | 18 | 1398 | 1.55 | 1 | -0.55 | 0.10 |
| Malik Sellouki | midfielder | 5 | 187 | 0.69 | 0 | -0.69 | 0.33 |
| Diogo Bezerra | attacker | 20 | 1675 | 3.06 | 2 | -1.06 | 0.16 |
| Marios Vrousai | defender | 19 | 1251 | 1.12 | 0 | -1.12 | 0.08 |
| Tamble Monteiro | attacker | 19 | 941 | 3.13 | 1 | -2.13 | 0.30 |
| Dario Spikic | attacker | 17 | 1050 | 2.18 | 0 | -2.18 | 0.19 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 8 | 18.7 | 20 | 7.9 | 4 | 17.2 | 24 | +6.8 |
| 2 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 9.7 | 11 | 14.2 | 10 | 8.6 | 14 | +5.4 |
| 3 | Arouca | 8 | 8.9 | 11 | 11.2 | 7 | 10 | 14 | +4 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 14.4 | 18 | +3.6 |
| 5 | Sporting CP | 8 | 13.8 | 20 | 7.1 | 9 | 15.1 | 18 | +2.9 |
| 6 | Rio Ave | 8 | 6.2 | 8 | 14.9 | 17 | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 8 | 6.6 | 8 | 14.1 | 15 | 6.7 | 8 | +1.3 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 11.2 | 13 | 12.1 | 12 | 10.3 | 11 | +0.7 |
| 9 | Benfica | 8 | 18.6 | 24 | 5.8 | 7 | 18.4 | 19 | +0.6 |
| 10 | Marítimo | 8 | 7.1 | 9 | 11.3 | 14 | 8.4 | 8 | -0.4 |
| 11 | Sporting Braga | 7 | 8.8 | 8 | 5.3 | 8 | 11.9 | 11 | -0.9 |
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 10 | 6 | 6.6 | 5 | 12.1 | 11 | -1.1 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 8 | 6.7 | 10 | 11.4 | 11 | 8.2 | 7 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 11.9 | 14 | 11.1 | 15 | 11.5 | 10 | -1.5 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 8 | 7 | 3 | 13.7 | 17 | 7.1 | 4 | -3.1 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 9.6 | 9 | 14 | 18 | 9 | 4 | -5 |
| 17 | Estoril | 8 | 7.4 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 8.1 | 2 | -6.1 |
| 18 | Vitória Guimarães | 8 | 13.3 | 5 | 7.8 | 10 | 14.2 | 5 | -9.2 |