No, Ried have taken 28 points over their last 20 Austrian Bundesliga games, within 0.80 of the 28.80 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Ried create 1.75 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Austrian Bundesliga games, 34.93 in all, and have scored 28 goals from those chances, 6.93 fewer than that xG would expect.
Ried allow 1.69 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Austrian Bundesliga games, 33.81 in all, and have conceded 29 goals from those chances, 4.81 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Kingstone Mutandwa has the most expected goals (xG) for Ried over their last 20 Austrian Bundesliga games, 8.02 xG in 11 appearances, and has scored 6 goals; Ante Bajic is next with 3.28 xG.
Ried's results and their chances agree, within 0.8 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 34.93 | 28 | -6.93 | 33.81 | 29 | +4.81 | 28.80 | 28 | -0.80 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 18.04 | 16 | -2.04 | 17.58 | 17 | +0.58 | 13.52 | 14 | +0.48 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 10.61 | 12 | +1.39 | 9.67 | 8 | +1.67 | 6.95 | 10 | +3.05 |
| Home | 11 | 20.51 | 19 | -1.51 | 16.82 | 13 | +3.82 | 17.40 | 22 | +4.60 |
| Away | 9 | 14.42 | 9 | -5.42 | 16.99 | 16 | +0.99 | 11.40 | 6 | -5.40 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Austrian Bundesliga | Austria Wien (H) | 3-2 | 2.35 | 2.10 | 1.54 | 3 | W |
| 10 Oct | Austrian Bundesliga | WSG Tirol (A) | 1-2 | 1.65 | 1.51 | 1.47 | 3 | W |
| 20 Sep | Austrian Bundesliga | Górnik (H) | 4-1 | 4.38 | 2.36 | 2.17 | 3 | W |
| 11 Sep | Austrian Bundesliga | Salzburg (H) | 1-1 | 0.65 | 1.46 | 0.76 | 1 | L |
| 30 Aug | Austrian Bundesliga | Hartberg (A) | 3-2 | 1.58 | 2.24 | 1.01 | 0 | L |
| 21 Aug | Austrian Bundesliga | Grazer AK (H) | 1-0 | 1.76 | 0.99 | 1.90 | 3 | W |
| 14 Aug | Austrian Bundesliga | LASK Linz (A) | 4-1 | 0.45 | 1.51 | 0.58 | 0 | L |
| 9 Aug | Austrian Bundesliga | SK Rapid (H) | 1-2 | 1.07 | 1.43 | 1.11 | 0 | L |
| 2 Aug | Austrian Bundesliga | Lustenau (A) | 1-1 | 2.73 | 0.97 | 2.37 | 1 | W |
| 16 May | Austrian Bundesliga | Altach (A) | 2-0 | 1.42 | 3.01 | 0.61 | 0 | L |
| 9 May | Austrian Bundesliga | Górnik (H) | 0-1 | 0.54 | 3.19 | 0.19 | 0 | L |
| 2 May | Austrian Bundesliga | Blau-Weiß Linz (H) | 2-0 | 1.75 | 0.95 | 1.92 | 3 | W |
| 25 Apr | Austrian Bundesliga | WSG Tirol (A) | 1-0 | 1.05 | 1.64 | 0.97 | 0 | L |
| 21 Apr | Austrian Bundesliga | Grazer AK (H) | 2-1 | 1.63 | 0.54 | 2.16 | 3 | W |
| 17 Apr | Austrian Bundesliga | Grazer AK (A) | 1-1 | 2.74 | 0.86 | 2.43 | 1 | W |
| 11 Apr | Austrian Bundesliga | Górnik (A) | 0-0 | 1.40 | 0.99 | 1.67 | 1 | W |
| 3 Apr | Austrian Bundesliga | Altach (H) | 3-2 | 2.27 | 0.45 | 2.52 | 3 | W |
| 21 Mar | Austrian Bundesliga | Blau-Weiß Linz (A) | 3-2 | 1.40 | 4.26 | 0.29 | 0 | L |
| 14 Mar | Austrian Bundesliga | WSG Tirol (H) | 2-1 | 3.10 | 0.78 | 2.58 | 3 | W |
| 8 Mar | Austrian Bundesliga | Austria Wien (H) | 0-2 | 1.01 | 2.57 | 0.55 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philipp Pomer | midfielder | 13 | 1117 | 1.43 | 4 | +2.57 | 0.11 |
| Stefan Schwab | midfielder | 9 | 746 | 2.31 | 4 | +1.69 | 0.28 |
| Peter Kiedl | attacker | 4 | 204 | 1.01 | 2 | +0.99 | 0.45 |
| Yussef Nasrawe | midfielder | 15 | 800 | 0.24 | 1 | +0.76 | 0.03 |
| Benjamin Garcia | defender | 11 | 923 | 0.94 | 1 | +0.06 | 0.09 |
| Ante Bajic | midfielder | 18 | 1522 | 3.28 | 3 | -0.28 | 0.19 |
| Samuel Chukwudi | defender | 9 | 810 | 1.38 | 1 | -0.38 | 0.15 |
| Niama Pape Sissoko | attacker | 7 | 314 | 2.49 | 2 | -0.49 | 0.71 |
| Yusuf Maart | midfielder | 20 | 1640 | 0.71 | 0 | -0.71 | 0.04 |
| Antonio Van Wyk | attacker | 10 | 567 | 0.71 | 0 | -0.71 | 0.11 |
| Martin Rasner | midfielder | 19 | 754 | 0.72 | 0 | -0.72 | 0.09 |
| Fabian Rossdorfer | midfielder | 9 | 532 | 0.91 | 0 | -0.91 | 0.15 |
| Oliver Steurer | defender | 20 | 1800 | 0.92 | 0 | -0.92 | 0.05 |
| Jonas Mayer | midfielder | 12 | 544 | 0.97 | 0 | -0.97 | 0.16 |
| Evan Eghosa | midfielder | 14 | 616 | 3.02 | 2 | -1.02 | 0.44 |
| Joris Boguo | attacker | 14 | 483 | 1.12 | 0 | -1.12 | 0.21 |
| Kingstone Mutandwa | attacker | 11 | 818 | 8.02 | 6 | -2.02 | 0.88 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SK Rapid | 9 | 18.2 | 26 | 9 | 8 | 16.7 | 24 | +7.3 |
| 2 | Salzburg | 9 | 20.3 | 21 | 10.1 | 4 | 18 | 21 | +3 |
| 3 | Sturm Graz | 9 | 16.9 | 16 | 12.8 | 10 | 14.3 | 17 | +2.7 |
| 4 | Hartberg | 9 | 9.2 | 15 | 15.6 | 19 | 8.7 | 11 | +2.3 |
| 5 | Ried | 9 | 16.6 | 16 | 14.6 | 15 | 12.9 | 14 | +1.1 |
| 6 | Austria Lustenau | 9 | 10.3 | 11 | 17.9 | 19 | 8.2 | 8 | -0.2 |
| 7 | LASK Linz | 9 | 18.9 | 23 | 7.4 | 9 | 19.4 | 19 | -0.4 |
| 8 | Grazer AK | 9 | 9.1 | 7 | 17 | 22 | 10 | 9 | -1 |
| 9 | Austria Wien | 9 | 9.5 | 9 | 15.3 | 18 | 9.1 | 7 | -2.1 |
| 10 | Wolfsberger AC | 9 | 9.5 | 7 | 19 | 18 | 7.4 | 5 | -2.4 |
| 11 | WSG Tirol | 9 | 15.8 | 12 | 14.4 | 14 | 13.6 | 11 | -2.6 |
| 12 | Rheindorf Altach | 9 | 10.6 | 8 | 12.1 | 15 | 12 | 6 | -6 |