No, PEC Zwolle have taken 18 points over their last 20 Eredivisie games, within 0.36 of the 17.64 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
PEC Zwolle create 1.18 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Eredivisie games, 23.54 in all, and have scored 21 goals from those chances, 2.54 fewer than that xG would expect.
PEC Zwolle allow 2.12 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Eredivisie games, 42.49 in all, and have conceded 44 goals from those chances, 1.51 more than that xGA would expect.
Koen Kostons has the most expected goals (xG) for PEC Zwolle over their last 20 Eredivisie games, 4.87 xG in 20 appearances, and has scored 6 goals; Thijs Oosting is next with 3.86 xG.
PEC Zwolle's results and their chances agree, within 0.4 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 23.54 | 21 | -2.54 | 42.49 | 44 | -1.51 | 17.64 | 18 | +0.36 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 11.01 | 10 | -1.01 | 23.28 | 24 | -0.72 | 7.79 | 7 | -0.79 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.53 | 6 | +0.47 | 12.40 | 14 | -1.60 | 3.65 | 4 | +0.35 |
| Home | 11 | 13.92 | 11 | -2.92 | 23.31 | 20 | +3.31 | 10.58 | 12 | +1.42 |
| Away | 9 | 9.62 | 10 | +0.38 | 19.18 | 24 | -4.82 | 7.06 | 6 | -1.06 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Eredivisie | GA Eagles (H) | 4-1 | 2.26 | 3.19 | 0.96 | 3 | L |
| 11 Oct | Eredivisie | SC Cambuur (H) | 0-1 | 1.07 | 0.98 | 1.42 | 0 | W |
| 18 Sep | Eredivisie | FC Groningen (A) | 3-0 | 0.58 | 1.59 | 0.65 | 0 | L |
| 13 Sep | Eredivisie | Feyenoord (H) | 0-7 | 0.29 | 3.52 | 0.09 | 0 | L |
| 4 Sep | Eredivisie | Sparta (A) | 2-2 | 1.33 | 3.12 | 0.53 | 1 | L |
| 29 Aug | Eredivisie | NEC Nijmegen (H) | 1-3 | 2.07 | 2.12 | 1.37 | 0 | L |
| 22 Aug | Eredivisie | Heerenveen (A) | 0-2 | 1.79 | 1.15 | 1.81 | 3 | W |
| 16 Aug | Eredivisie | FC Twente (A) | 3-1 | 0.66 | 2.76 | 0.32 | 0 | L |
| 9 Aug | Eredivisie | Ajax (H) | 0-2 | 0.51 | 2.09 | 0.41 | 0 | L |
| 17 May | Eredivisie | Feyenoord (H) | 0-2 | 0.45 | 2.76 | 0.23 | 0 | L |
| 10 May | Eredivisie | Fortuna (A) | 3-2 | 0.80 | 1.50 | 0.86 | 0 | L |
| 3 May | Eredivisie | Heracles Almelo (H) | 1-0 | 0.69 | 1.58 | 0.73 | 3 | L |
| 23 Apr | Eredivisie | PSV (A) | 6-1 | 0.44 | 1.91 | 0.42 | 0 | L |
| 12 Apr | Eredivisie | Excelsior (H) | 2-2 | 2.22 | 2.06 | 1.49 | 1 | W |
| 5 Apr | Eredivisie | GA Eagles (A) | 5-0 | 1.51 | 2.12 | 1.03 | 0 | L |
| 21 Mar | Eredivisie | NAC Breda (H) | 2-1 | 0.84 | 1.35 | 0.98 | 3 | L |
| 13 Mar | Eredivisie | FC Groningen (H) | 1-1 | 2.14 | 3.01 | 0.98 | 1 | L |
| 8 Mar | Eredivisie | Sparta (A) | 1-1 | 1.54 | 2.28 | 0.97 | 1 | L |
| 1 Mar | Eredivisie | Ajax (H) | 0-0 | 1.38 | 0.65 | 1.92 | 1 | W |
| 22 Feb | Eredivisie | FC Utrecht (A) | 1-1 | 0.97 | 2.75 | 0.47 | 1 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thijs Oosting | midfielder | 20 | 1517 | 3.86 | 5 | +1.14 | 0.23 |
| Koen Kostons | attacker | 20 | 1597 | 4.87 | 6 | +1.13 | 0.27 |
| Odysseus Velanas | midfielder | 16 | 693 | 1.03 | 2 | +0.97 | 0.13 |
| Zico Buurmeester | midfielder | 11 | 971 | 1.22 | 2 | +0.79 | 0.11 |
| Kaj de Rooij | attacker | 9 | 392 | 0.45 | 1 | +0.55 | 0.10 |
| Gabriël Reiziger | midfielder | 9 | 270 | 0.49 | 1 | +0.51 | 0.16 |
| Nick Viergever | defender | 9 | 810 | 0.60 | 1 | +0.40 | 0.07 |
| Anselmo GarcÃa MacNulty | defender | 10 | 883 | 0.62 | 1 | +0.38 | 0.06 |
| Ibrahim Cissoko | attacker | 9 | 355 | 0.64 | 1 | +0.36 | 0.16 |
| Elias Sørensen | attacker | 8 | 346 | 0.70 | 1 | +0.30 | 0.18 |
| Sydney van Hooijdonk | attacker | 5 | 198 | 0.76 | 1 | +0.24 | 0.34 |
| Gilles van der Wal | midfielder | 3 | 102 | 0.59 | 0 | -0.59 | 0.52 |
| Tristan Gooijer | defender | 7 | 402 | 0.75 | 0 | -0.75 | 0.17 |
| T. Sommer | midfielder | 9 | 799 | 0.83 | 0 | -0.83 | 0.09 |
| Dylan Mbayo | attacker | 9 | 684 | 0.89 | 0 | -0.89 | 0.12 |
| Younes Namli | attacker | 7 | 625 | 1.13 | 0 | -1.13 | 0.16 |
| Simon Graves | defender | 18 | 1546 | 1.62 | 0 | -1.62 | 0.09 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 7.6 | 14 | 18.5 | 15 | 6.5 | 14 | +7.5 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 9 | 25.1 | 31 | 9 | 10 | 20.5 | 23 | +2.5 |
| 3 | FC Groningen | 9 | 15.2 | 22 | 18.2 | 19 | 11.6 | 14 | +2.4 |
| 4 | AZ | 9 | 21.7 | 20 | 9.9 | 10 | 18.1 | 20 | +1.9 |
| 5 | PSV | 9 | 22.2 | 27 | 11.2 | 12 | 18.2 | 19 | +0.8 |
| 6 | SC Heerenveen | 9 | 13.6 | 15 | 14.3 | 11 | 12.1 | 12 | -0.1 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 9 | 13.1 | 16 | 16.1 | 18 | 11.3 | 11 | -0.3 |
| 8 | PEC Zwolle | 9 | 10.6 | 10 | 20.5 | 22 | 7.5 | 7 | -0.5 |
| 9 | Ajax | 9 | 24 | 27 | 11.3 | 12 | 19 | 18 | -1 |
| 10 | FC Twente | 8 | 18.7 | 16 | 6.4 | 8 | 18 | 17 | -1 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 13.5 | 13 | 15.1 | 14 | 10.1 | 9 | -1.1 |
| 12 | SC Cambuur | 9 | 12.8 | 13 | 16.3 | 21 | 10.2 | 9 | -1.2 |
| 13 | FC Utrecht | 8 | 11.2 | 14 | 15.4 | 25 | 9.5 | 8 | -1.5 |
| 14 | Go Ahead Eagles | 9 | 17 | 20 | 16.7 | 21 | 12.9 | 11 | -1.9 |
| 15 | ADO Den Haag | 9 | 8.5 | 11 | 17.5 | 20 | 8.1 | 6 | -2.1 |
| 16 | Telstar | 9 | 12.5 | 10 | 20.4 | 18 | 8.5 | 6 | -2.5 |
| 17 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 16.9 | 16 | 18.9 | 22 | 11.7 | 9 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Willem II | 9 | 11.8 | 9 | 20.3 | 26 | 7.9 | 2 | -5.9 |