No, Moreirense have taken 18 points over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, within 1.22 of the 16.78 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Moreirense create 0.82 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, 16.39 in all, and have scored 16 goals from those chances, 0.39 fewer than that xG would expect.
Moreirense allow 1.70 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, 34.03 in all, and have conceded 34 goals from those chances, 0.03 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Alan de Souza Guimarães has the most expected goals (xG) for Moreirense over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, 2.82 xG in 12 appearances, and has scored 3 goals; Alexandre Parsemain is next with 1.75 xG.
Moreirense's results and their chances agree, within 1.2 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 16.39 | 16 | -0.39 | 34.03 | 34 | +0.03 | 16.78 | 18 | +1.22 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 8.28 | 8 | -0.28 | 17.54 | 17 | +0.54 | 8.26 | 9 | +0.74 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 4.93 | 5 | +0.07 | 10.04 | 9 | +1.04 | 4.42 | 4 | -0.42 |
| Home | 11 | 10.91 | 10 | -0.91 | 17.01 | 16 | +1.01 | 11.32 | 12 | +0.68 |
| Away | 9 | 5.48 | 6 | +0.52 | 17.02 | 18 | -0.98 | 5.46 | 6 | +0.54 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct | Liga Portugal | Gil Vicente (H) | 0-1 | 1.16 | 1.67 | 1.03 | 0 | L |
| 20 Sep | Liga Portugal | Vitória SC (A) | 1-1 | 0.48 | 1.19 | 0.76 | 1 | L |
| 14 Sep | Liga Portugal | MarÃtimo (H) | 3-1 | 2.08 | 0.82 | 2.19 | 3 | W |
| 9 Sep | Liga Portugal | Benfica (H) | 0-4 | 0.40 | 3.10 | 0.16 | 0 | L |
| 4 Sep | Liga Portugal | Porto (A) | 2-1 | 0.81 | 3.26 | 0.28 | 0 | L |
| 30 Aug | Liga Portugal | Casa Pia (A) | 0-1 | 0.68 | 1.01 | 1.06 | 3 | L |
| 16 Aug | Liga Portugal | Arouca (A) | 4-0 | 0.74 | 1.83 | 0.66 | 0 | L |
| 9 Aug | Liga Portugal | Braga (H) | 2-2 | 0.25 | 1.18 | 0.54 | 1 | L |
| 16 May | Liga Portugal | AVS (H) | 0-0 | 1.36 | 1.57 | 1.23 | 1 | L |
| 11 May | Liga Portugal | Tondela (A) | 2-0 | 0.32 | 1.91 | 0.35 | 0 | L |
| 2 May | Liga Portugal | Estrela (H) | 3-2 | 2.03 | 2.42 | 1.19 | 3 | L |
| 25 Apr | Liga Portugal | Benfica (A) | 4-1 | 0.43 | 2.46 | 0.27 | 0 | L |
| 20 Apr | Liga Portugal | Estoril (H) | 1-0 | 1.04 | 0.38 | 1.90 | 3 | W |
| 10 Apr | Liga Portugal | Famalicão (A) | 1-1 | 0.22 | 2.27 | 0.21 | 1 | L |
| 4 Apr | Liga Portugal | Braga (H) | 0-1 | 0.60 | 1.23 | 0.85 | 0 | L |
| 21 Mar | Liga Portugal | Arouca (H) | 0-1 | 0.61 | 1.60 | 0.67 | 0 | L |
| 15 Mar | Liga Portugal | Porto (A) | 3-0 | 0.10 | 1.79 | 0.23 | 0 | L |
| 7 Mar | Liga Portugal | Nacional (H) | 1-1 | 0.98 | 1.35 | 1.09 | 1 | L |
| 1 Mar | Liga Portugal | Casa Pia (A) | 1-1 | 1.70 | 1.30 | 1.64 | 1 | W |
| 21 Feb | Liga Portugal | Sporting (H) | 0-3 | 0.40 | 1.69 | 0.47 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LuÃs Semedo | attacker | 9 | 472 | 1.02 | 2 | +0.98 | 0.19 |
| Francisco Miguel Teixeira Domingues | defender | 18 | 1280 | 0.22 | 1 | +0.78 | 0.02 |
| João Veloso | midfielder | 5 | 248 | 0.29 | 1 | +0.71 | 0.11 |
| Manuel Mendonça | midfielder | 6 | 460 | 0.32 | 1 | +0.68 | 0.06 |
| Tiago Andrade | attacker | 6 | 320 | 0.37 | 1 | +0.63 | 0.10 |
| Rodrigo Alonso MartÃn | midfielder | 19 | 1152 | 0.50 | 1 | +0.51 | 0.04 |
| Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga | defender | 17 | 1510 | 0.72 | 1 | +0.28 | 0.04 |
| Alan de Souza Guimarães | midfielder | 12 | 898 | 2.82 | 3 | +0.18 | 0.28 |
| Nile John | midfielder | 19 | 1206 | 0.90 | 1 | +0.10 | 0.07 |
| Leonardo Vonić | attacker | 3 | 210 | 0.96 | 1 | +0.04 | 0.41 |
| Travassos | defender | 11 | 970 | 1.14 | 1 | -0.14 | 0.11 |
| Dinis Lourenço Casals Namura Borges Pinto | defender | 9 | 730 | 1.34 | 1 | -0.34 | 0.16 |
| Mateja Stjepanović | midfielder | 17 | 1018 | 0.57 | 0 | -0.57 | 0.05 |
| Alexandre Parsemain | attacker | 6 | 434 | 1.75 | 1 | -0.75 | 0.36 |
| Yan Lincon Farias de Sousa | attacker | 12 | 343 | 0.78 | 0 | -0.78 | 0.21 |
| Landerson | attacker | 19 | 906 | 0.96 | 0 | -0.96 | 0.10 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 8 | 18.7 | 20 | 7.9 | 4 | 17.2 | 24 | +6.8 |
| 2 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 9.7 | 11 | 14.2 | 10 | 8.6 | 14 | +5.4 |
| 3 | Arouca | 8 | 8.9 | 11 | 11.2 | 7 | 10 | 14 | +4 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 14.4 | 18 | +3.6 |
| 5 | Sporting CP | 8 | 13.8 | 20 | 7.1 | 9 | 15.1 | 18 | +2.9 |
| 6 | Rio Ave | 8 | 6.2 | 8 | 14.9 | 17 | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 8 | 6.6 | 8 | 14.1 | 15 | 6.7 | 8 | +1.3 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 11.2 | 13 | 12.1 | 12 | 10.3 | 11 | +0.7 |
| 9 | Benfica | 8 | 18.6 | 24 | 5.8 | 7 | 18.4 | 19 | +0.6 |
| 10 | MarÃtimo | 8 | 7.1 | 9 | 11.3 | 14 | 8.4 | 8 | -0.4 |
| 11 | Sporting Braga | 7 | 8.8 | 8 | 5.3 | 8 | 11.9 | 11 | -0.9 |
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 10 | 6 | 6.6 | 5 | 12.1 | 11 | -1.1 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 8 | 6.7 | 10 | 11.4 | 11 | 8.2 | 7 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 11.9 | 14 | 11.1 | 15 | 11.5 | 10 | -1.5 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 8 | 7 | 3 | 13.7 | 17 | 7.1 | 4 | -3.1 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 9.6 | 9 | 14 | 18 | 9 | 4 | -5 |
| 17 | Estoril | 8 | 7.4 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 8.1 | 2 | -6.1 |
| 18 | Vitória Guimarães | 8 | 13.3 | 5 | 7.8 | 10 | 14.2 | 5 | -9.2 |