No, Alverca have taken 25 points over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, within 2.89 of the 27.89 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Alverca create 1.26 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, 25.12 in all, and have scored 26 goals from those chances, 0.88 more than that xG would expect.
Alverca allow 1.20 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, 24.00 in all, and have conceded 27 goals from those chances, 3.00 more than that xGA would expect.
Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira has the most expected goals (xG) for Alverca over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, 3.51 xG in 17 appearances, and has scored 3 goals; Figueiredo is next with 3.40 xG.
Alverca's results and their chances agree, within 2.9 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 25.12 | 26 | +0.88 | 24.00 | 27 | -3.00 | 27.89 | 25 | -2.89 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 12.85 | 14 | +1.15 | 13.29 | 14 | -0.71 | 13.27 | 12 | -1.27 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 7.66 | 10 | +2.34 | 6.50 | 5 | +1.50 | 7.40 | 10 | +2.60 |
| Home | 10 | 12.38 | 13 | +0.62 | 10.63 | 13 | -2.37 | 14.83 | 14 | -0.83 |
| Away | 10 | 12.74 | 13 | +0.26 | 13.37 | 14 | -0.63 | 13.06 | 11 | -2.06 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct | Liga Portugal | Famalicão (A) | 1-4 | 2.50 | 0.40 | 2.62 | 3 | W |
| 19 Sep | Liga Portugal | Rio Ave (H) | 1-0 | 2.40 | 0.47 | 2.55 | 3 | W |
| 12 Sep | Liga Portugal | Nacional (A) | 1-3 | 1.20 | 2.22 | 0.79 | 3 | L |
| 5 Sep | Liga Portugal | Braga (H) | 1-2 | 1.17 | 2.11 | 0.82 | 0 | L |
| 29 Aug | Liga Portugal | Santa Clara (H) | 1-1 | 0.39 | 1.30 | 0.62 | 1 | L |
| 22 Aug | Liga Portugal | Sporting (A) | 3-1 | 0.51 | 1.84 | 0.49 | 0 | L |
| 15 Aug | Liga Portugal | Estrela (H) | 2-2 | 1.45 | 1.25 | 1.51 | 1 | W |
| 9 Aug | Liga Portugal | Porto (A) | 2-0 | 1.60 | 2.45 | 0.92 | 0 | L |
| 16 May | Liga Portugal | Famalicão (A) | 1-0 | 0.64 | 0.67 | 1.27 | 0 | D |
| 10 May | Liga Portugal | Estoril (H) | 1-1 | 0.99 | 0.58 | 1.68 | 1 | W |
| 2 May | Liga Portugal | Porto (A) | 1-0 | 0.76 | 0.91 | 1.20 | 0 | L |
| 24 Apr | Liga Portugal | Arouca (H) | 2-1 | 0.81 | 0.99 | 1.19 | 3 | L |
| 18 Apr | Liga Portugal | Nacional (A) | 1-0 | 0.42 | 0.78 | 0.95 | 0 | L |
| 12 Apr | Liga Portugal | Casa Pia (H) | 3-1 | 2.00 | 0.86 | 2.12 | 3 | W |
| 4 Apr | Liga Portugal | Rio Ave (A) | 1-2 | 1.38 | 1.55 | 1.26 | 3 | L |
| 22 Mar | Liga Portugal | Sporting (H) | 1-4 | 0.96 | 1.97 | 0.75 | 0 | L |
| 14 Mar | Liga Portugal | Gil Vicente (A) | 2-2 | 1.79 | 0.84 | 2.03 | 1 | W |
| 7 Mar | Liga Portugal | AVS (H) | 0-0 | 0.85 | 0.43 | 1.70 | 1 | W |
| 28 Feb | Liga Portugal | Vitória SC (A) | 1-1 | 1.94 | 1.71 | 1.53 | 1 | W |
| 21 Feb | Liga Portugal | Santa Clara (H) | 1-1 | 1.36 | 0.67 | 1.89 | 1 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Figueiredo | attacker | 20 | 1624 | 3.40 | 6 | +2.60 | 0.19 |
| Vivaldo Semedo | attacker | 8 | 382 | 1.36 | 3 | +1.64 | 0.32 |
| Kaiky Marques Naves | defender | 11 | 990 | 0.69 | 2 | +1.31 | 0.06 |
| Dawda Camara | attacker | 4 | 243 | 2.03 | 3 | +0.97 | 0.75 |
| Marko Milovanović | attacker | 10 | 295 | 2.14 | 3 | +0.86 | 0.65 |
| Francisco Edgar Chissumba Rodrigues | defender | 7 | 450 | 0.30 | 1 | +0.70 | 0.06 |
| Rhaldney | midfielder | 12 | 892 | 0.58 | 1 | +0.42 | 0.06 |
| Sandro Lima | attacker | 12 | 780 | 2.06 | 2 | -0.06 | 0.24 |
| André Vidigal | attacker | 6 | 198 | 1.15 | 1 | -0.15 | 0.52 |
| Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira | attacker | 17 | 1378 | 3.51 | 3 | -0.51 | 0.23 |
| Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos | midfielder | 12 | 1033 | 0.65 | 0 | -0.65 | 0.06 |
| Steven Baseya | defender | 13 | 928 | 0.67 | 0 | -0.67 | 0.06 |
| Ian Luccas | midfielder | 6 | 456 | 2.03 | 1 | -1.03 | 0.40 |
| Nabil Touaizi | defender | 15 | 1281 | 1.52 | 0 | -1.52 | 0.11 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 8 | 18.7 | 20 | 7.9 | 4 | 17.2 | 24 | +6.8 |
| 2 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 9.7 | 11 | 14.2 | 10 | 8.6 | 14 | +5.4 |
| 3 | Arouca | 8 | 8.9 | 11 | 11.2 | 7 | 10 | 14 | +4 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 14.4 | 18 | +3.6 |
| 5 | Sporting CP | 8 | 13.8 | 20 | 7.1 | 9 | 15.1 | 18 | +2.9 |
| 6 | Rio Ave | 8 | 6.2 | 8 | 14.9 | 17 | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 8 | 6.6 | 8 | 14.1 | 15 | 6.7 | 8 | +1.3 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 11.2 | 13 | 12.1 | 12 | 10.3 | 11 | +0.7 |
| 9 | Benfica | 8 | 18.6 | 24 | 5.8 | 7 | 18.4 | 19 | +0.6 |
| 10 | MarÃtimo | 8 | 7.1 | 9 | 11.3 | 14 | 8.4 | 8 | -0.4 |
| 11 | Sporting Braga | 7 | 8.8 | 8 | 5.3 | 8 | 11.9 | 11 | -0.9 |
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 10 | 6 | 6.6 | 5 | 12.1 | 11 | -1.1 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 8 | 6.7 | 10 | 11.4 | 11 | 8.2 | 7 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 11.9 | 14 | 11.1 | 15 | 11.5 | 10 | -1.5 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 8 | 7 | 3 | 13.7 | 17 | 7.1 | 4 | -3.1 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 9.6 | 9 | 14 | 18 | 9 | 4 | -5 |
| 17 | Estoril | 8 | 7.4 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 8.1 | 2 | -6.1 |
| 18 | Vitória Guimarães | 8 | 13.3 | 5 | 7.8 | 10 | 14.2 | 5 | -9.2 |