No, Mechelen have taken 15 points over their last 20 Belgian Pro League games, within 2.80 of the 17.80 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Mechelen create 1.00 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Belgian Pro League games, 20.09 in all, and have scored 20 goals from those chances, 0.09 fewer than that xG would expect.
Mechelen allow 1.85 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Belgian Pro League games, 36.95 in all, and have conceded 45 goals from those chances, 8.05 more than that xGA would expect.
Bouke Boersma has the most expected goals (xG) for Mechelen over their last 20 Belgian Pro League games, 3.71 xG in 16 appearances, and has scored 3 goals; Myron van Brederode is next with 3.67 xG.
Mechelen's results and their chances agree, within 2.8 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 20.09 | 20 | -0.09 | 36.95 | 45 | -8.05 | 17.80 | 15 | -2.80 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 11.24 | 11 | -0.24 | 16.53 | 22 | -5.47 | 10.06 | 7 | -3.06 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.26 | 6 | -0.26 | 8.24 | 10 | -1.76 | 5.70 | 5 | -0.70 |
| Home | 10 | 10.99 | 13 | +2.01 | 19.30 | 20 | -0.70 | 8.81 | 11 | +2.19 |
| Away | 10 | 9.10 | 7 | -2.10 | 17.65 | 25 | -7.35 | 8.99 | 4 | -4.99 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Belgian Pro League | Sint-Truiden (H) | 4-3 | 0.78 | 1.82 | 0.69 | 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | Belgian Pro League | Lommel SK (A) | 0-0 | 1.66 | 0.91 | 1.89 | 1 | W |
| 11 Sep | Belgian Pro League | Anderlecht (H) | 0-1 | 1.21 | 1.34 | 1.28 | 0 | L |
| 5 Sep | Belgian Pro League | Westerlo (H) | 0-4 | 0.61 | 2.16 | 0.45 | 0 | L |
| 29 Aug | Belgian Pro League | La Louvière (A) | 2-2 | 2.00 | 2.01 | 1.39 | 1 | L |
| 22 Aug | Belgian Pro League | Charleroi (A) | 2-0 | 0.31 | 1.42 | 0.50 | 0 | L |
| 16 Aug | Belgian Pro League | Standard (H) | 3-3 | 2.60 | 1.77 | 1.85 | 1 | W |
| 9 Aug | Belgian Pro League | Gent (A) | 2-0 | 0.41 | 1.53 | 0.54 | 0 | L |
| 24 May | Belgian Pro League | Sint-Truiden (A) | 3-0 | 0.57 | 1.59 | 0.64 | 0 | L |
| 21 May | Belgian Pro League | Club Brugge (H) | 2-2 | 1.09 | 1.98 | 0.83 | 1 | L |
| 17 May | Belgian Pro League | Anderlecht (A) | 2-2 | 1.07 | 1.16 | 1.29 | 1 | L |
| 10 May | Belgian Pro League | Union SG (A) | 3-0 | 0.38 | 1.59 | 0.49 | 0 | L |
| 3 May | Belgian Pro League | Gent (H) | 1-0 | 0.40 | 1.77 | 0.44 | 3 | L |
| 26 Apr | Belgian Pro League | Sint-Truiden (H) | 1-4 | 1.34 | 1.85 | 1.06 | 0 | L |
| 22 Apr | Belgian Pro League | Club Brugge (A) | 6-1 | 1.15 | 4.28 | 0.22 | 0 | L |
| 18 Apr | Belgian Pro League | Anderlecht (H) | 1-2 | 1.49 | 1.79 | 1.19 | 0 | L |
| 12 Apr | Belgian Pro League | Union SG (H) | 0-1 | 0.26 | 2.76 | 0.15 | 0 | L |
| 6 Apr | Belgian Pro League | Gent (A) | 1-1 | 1.06 | 0.56 | 1.76 | 1 | W |
| 22 Mar | Belgian Pro League | Club Brugge (A) | 4-1 | 0.49 | 2.60 | 0.27 | 0 | L |
| 15 Mar | Belgian Pro League | Anderlecht (H) | 1-0 | 1.21 | 2.06 | 0.87 | 3 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myron van Brederode | attacker | 20 | 1789 | 3.67 | 6 | +2.33 | 0.18 |
| Thérence Koudou | defender | 19 | 1622 | 0.90 | 2 | +1.10 | 0.05 |
| Simion Michez | midfielder | 4 | 259 | 0.26 | 1 | +0.74 | 0.09 |
| Mory Konaté | midfielder | 7 | 315 | 0.30 | 1 | +0.70 | 0.09 |
| Benito Raman | attacker | 17 | 652 | 1.69 | 2 | +0.31 | 0.23 |
| Bill Antonio | attacker | 16 | 682 | 0.72 | 1 | +0.28 | 0.09 |
| Adeshina Ayodele | attacker | 4 | 108 | 0.75 | 1 | +0.25 | 0.63 |
| Luc Marijnissen | defender | 7 | 521 | 0.56 | 0 | -0.56 | 0.10 |
| Mathis Servais | midfielder | 10 | 870 | 0.63 | 0 | -0.63 | 0.06 |
| Bouke Boersma | attacker | 16 | 1108 | 3.71 | 3 | -0.71 | 0.30 |
| José Marsà | defender | 20 | 1770 | 0.75 | 0 | -0.75 | 0.04 |
| Mike Eerdhuijzen | defender | 5 | 431 | 0.78 | 0 | -0.78 | 0.16 |
| Keano Vanrafelghem | attacker | 10 | 298 | 0.90 | 0 | -0.90 | 0.27 |
| Malcolm Bendele Lohunanu-Mbasi | attacker | 7 | 266 | 1.02 | 0 | -1.02 | 0.35 |
| Kerim Mrabti | midfielder | 12 | 958 | 1.22 | 0 | -1.22 | 0.11 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 8 | 12 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 14.5 | 22 | +7.5 |
| 2 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 8 | 16.3 | 22 | 9.6 | 4 | 14.8 | 20 | +5.2 |
| 3 | Sporting Charleroi | 8 | 16.3 | 16 | 8.3 | 7 | 15.9 | 21 | +5.1 |
| 4 | Club Brugge | 8 | 22.6 | 19 | 9.7 | 4 | 16.7 | 21 | +4.3 |
| 5 | Lommel SK | 8 | 8.8 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 8.3 | 11 | +2.7 |
| 6 | SK Beveren | 8 | 8.4 | 8 | 15.8 | 14 | 6.9 | 9 | +2.1 |
| 7 | Westerlo | 8 | 13.3 | 20 | 13.9 | 17 | 11.3 | 13 | +1.7 |
| 8 | Anderlecht | 8 | 13.6 | 9 | 7.2 | 6 | 14.9 | 16 | +1.1 |
| 9 | Zulte-Waregem | 8 | 10 | 10 | 11.4 | 9 | 10.1 | 11 | +0.9 |
| 10 | Antwerp | 8 | 11 | 12 | 18.8 | 20 | 7.5 | 7 | -0.5 |
| 11 | Genk | 8 | 14.3 | 16 | 10.2 | 12 | 12.9 | 12 | -0.9 |
| 12 | Standard Liège | 8 | 14.6 | 13 | 12.7 | 13 | 11.9 | 11 | -0.9 |
| 13 | Mechelen | 8 | 9.6 | 9 | 13 | 17 | 8.6 | 6 | -2.6 |
| 14 | La Louvière | 8 | 10.2 | 8 | 18.1 | 18 | 7.3 | 4 | -3.3 |
| 15 | OH Leuven | 8 | 10.5 | 6 | 17.1 | 14 | 8.4 | 5 | -3.4 |
| 16 | KV Kortrijk | 8 | 8.1 | 2 | 15.3 | 18 | 7.2 | 3 | -4.2 |
| 17 | Sint-Truiden | 8 | 15.8 | 15 | 12.7 | 16 | 12.7 | 8 | -4.7 |
| 18 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | 11.8 | 9 | 12.4 | 16 | 10.5 | 3 | -7.5 |