Which sides have got more from their chances than they deserved, and which have got less.
Updated 11 October 2026, after the last game
Cercle Brugge have the biggest shortfall in the Belgian Pro League: 3 points from chances worth 10.5 xPts, a gap of 7.5. At the other end, Gent have taken 22 points from an xPts figure of 14.5, 7.5 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks. How xG is calculated How xPts is calculated
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Brugge | 4 | 10 | 11.7 | -1.7 | 1 | 4.8 | -3.8 | +9 | 6.9 | +2.1 | 12 | 9.0 | +3.0 |
| 2 | Anderlecht | 4 | 6 | 8.6 | -2.6 | 1 | 2.9 | -1.9 | +5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | 10 | 9.0 | +1.0 |
| 3 | Genk | 4 | 11 | 9.8 | +1.2 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 | +8 | 6.1 | +1.9 | 10 | 8.6 | +1.4 |
| 4 | Sporting Charleroi | 4 | 10 | 9.3 | +0.7 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 | +4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | 9 | 8.3 | +0.7 |
| 5 | Standard Liège | 4 | 5 | 8.8 | -3.8 | 3 | 5.6 | -2.6 | +2 | 3.2 | -1.2 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 |
| 6 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 4 | 9 | 8.3 | +0.7 | 1 | 5.2 | -4.2 | +8 | 3.1 | +4.9 | 8 | 7.0 | +1.0 |
| 7 | Gent | 4 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | +5 | 2.2 | +2.8 | 12 | 7.0 | +5.0 |
| 8 | Sint-Truiden | 4 | 5 | 8.6 | -3.6 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | -1 | 2.3 | -3.3 | 4 | 6.6 | -2.6 |
| 9 | Westerlo | 4 | 12 | 6.9 | +5.1 | 10 | 6.0 | +4.0 | +2 | 0.9 | +1.1 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 10 | Cercle Brugge | 4 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 | 9 | 5.2 | +3.8 | -5 | 1.1 | -6.1 | 1 | 5.9 | -4.9 |
| 11 | SK Beveren | 4 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | 3 | 5.7 | -2.7 | +4 | -0.3 | +4.3 | 9 | 5.2 | +3.8 |
| 12 | KV Kortrijk | 4 | 2 | 4.9 | -2.9 | 8 | 5.5 | +2.5 | -6 | -0.6 | -5.4 | 3 | 5.1 | -2.1 |
| 13 | Zulte-Waregem | 4 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | +2 | -0.4 | +2.4 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
| 14 | OH Leuven | 4 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 6 | 8.2 | -2.2 | -2 | -3.1 | +1.1 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 |
| 15 | Antwerp | 4 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 | 11 | 8.2 | +2.8 | -4 | -2.3 | -1.7 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 |
| 16 | La Louvière | 4 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 | 8 | 9.4 | -1.4 | -1 | -2.6 | +1.6 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 |
| 17 | Mechelen | 4 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 | 11 | 7.1 | +3.9 | -4 | -1.9 | -2.1 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 |
| 18 | Lommel SK | 4 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 | 2 | 4.9 | -2.9 | +2 | -1.8 | +3.8 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 4 | 13 | 8.0 | +5.0 | 3 | 4.4 | -1.4 | +10 | 3.6 | +6.4 | 12 | 7.8 | +4.2 |
| 2 | Club Brugge | 4 | 9 | 10.9 | -1.9 | 3 | 4.9 | -1.9 | +6 | 6.0 | +0.0 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 |
| 3 | Sporting Charleroi | 4 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 | 1 | 3.9 | -2.9 | +5 | 3.0 | +2.0 | 12 | 7.6 | +4.4 |
| 4 | Gent | 4 | 8 | 6.3 | +1.7 | 2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | +6 | 2.8 | +3.2 | 10 | 7.4 | +2.6 |
| 5 | Sint-Truiden | 4 | 10 | 7.2 | +2.8 | 10 | 6.5 | +3.5 | +0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| 6 | Anderlecht | 4 | 3 | 5.0 | -2.0 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | -2 | 0.6 | -2.6 | 6 | 5.9 | +0.1 |
| 7 | Westerlo | 4 | 8 | 6.3 | +1.7 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 | +1 | -1.6 | +2.6 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 |
| 8 | Zulte-Waregem | 4 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | -1 | -1.0 | +0.0 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 |
| 9 | Standard Liège | 4 | 8 | 5.8 | +2.2 | 10 | 7.1 | +2.9 | -2 | -1.4 | -0.6 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 |
| 10 | Cercle Brugge | 4 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 | -2 | -1.6 | -0.4 | 2 | 4.6 | -2.6 |
| 11 | Mechelen | 4 | 2 | 4.4 | -2.4 | 6 | 5.9 | +0.1 | -4 | -1.5 | -2.5 | 2 | 4.3 | -2.3 |
| 12 | Genk | 4 | 5 | 4.6 | +0.4 | 9 | 6.5 | +2.5 | -4 | -1.9 | -2.1 | 2 | 4.3 | -2.3 |
| 13 | Lommel SK | 4 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | 7 | 9.1 | -2.1 | -2 | -3.4 | +1.4 | 7 | 4.3 | +2.7 |
| 14 | OH Leuven | 4 | 2 | 5.4 | -3.4 | 8 | 8.9 | -0.9 | -6 | -3.5 | -2.5 | 1 | 3.8 | -2.8 |
| 15 | Antwerp | 4 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 | 9 | 10.5 | -1.5 | -4 | -5.4 | +1.4 | 3 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 16 | La Louvière | 4 | 1 | 3.5 | -2.5 | 10 | 8.7 | +1.3 | -9 | -5.2 | -3.8 | 0 | 2.9 | -2.9 |
| 17 | KV Kortrijk | 4 | 0 | 3.2 | -3.2 | 10 | 9.8 | +0.2 | -10 | -6.6 | -3.4 | 0 | 2.1 | -2.1 |
| 18 | SK Beveren | 4 | 1 | 3.0 | -2.0 | 11 | 10.2 | +0.8 | -10 | -7.2 | -2.8 | 0 | 1.7 | -1.7 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 5 | 14 | 11.2 | +2.8 | 3 | 6.2 | -3.2 | +11 | 5.1 | +5.9 | 13 | 9.6 | +3.4 |
| 2 | Club Brugge | 5 | 12 | 12.6 | -0.6 | 4 | 7.3 | -3.3 | +8 | 5.3 | +2.7 | 12 | 9.3 | +2.7 |
| 3 | Westerlo | 5 | 17 | 10.4 | +6.6 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 | +12 | 3.8 | +8.2 | 13 | 9.2 | +3.8 |
| 4 | Anderlecht | 5 | 7 | 7.5 | -0.5 | 1 | 4.0 | -3.0 | +6 | 3.5 | +2.5 | 13 | 9.2 | +3.8 |
| 5 | Sporting Charleroi | 5 | 10 | 9.9 | +0.1 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 | +4 | 3.5 | +0.5 | 12 | 9.1 | +2.9 |
| 6 | Gent | 5 | 9 | 6.7 | +2.3 | 2 | 4.9 | -2.9 | +7 | 1.7 | +5.3 | 13 | 8.1 | +4.9 |
| 7 | Sint-Truiden | 5 | 7 | 8.2 | -1.2 | 11 | 6.9 | +4.1 | -4 | 1.3 | -5.3 | 3 | 7.5 | -4.5 |
| 8 | Standard Liège | 5 | 6 | 8.8 | -2.8 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 | -2 | 1.4 | -3.4 | 6 | 7.4 | -1.4 |
| 9 | Genk | 5 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | 4 | 6.7 | -2.7 | +4 | 1.0 | +3.0 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 |
| 10 | Cercle Brugge | 5 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 | 10 | 6.5 | +3.5 | -6 | 0.0 | -6.0 | 1 | 6.8 | -5.8 |
| 11 | OH Leuven | 5 | 4 | 6.2 | -2.2 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 | -2 | -1.4 | -0.6 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 |
| 12 | Mechelen | 5 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | 10 | 8.2 | +1.8 | -4 | -2.0 | -2.0 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 |
| 13 | SK Beveren | 5 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | 8 | 8.9 | -0.9 | -2 | -2.7 | +0.7 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 |
| 14 | Lommel SK | 5 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 | 7 | 8.8 | -1.8 | -3 | -3.1 | +0.1 | 7 | 5.5 | +1.5 |
| 15 | Zulte-Waregem | 5 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 | 8 | 8.5 | -0.5 | -4 | -2.9 | -1.1 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 |
| 16 | La Louvière | 5 | 6 | 7.3 | -1.3 | 12 | 11.6 | +0.4 | -6 | -4.3 | -1.7 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 |
| 17 | KV Kortrijk | 5 | 1 | 5.2 | -4.2 | 9 | 8.7 | +0.3 | -8 | -3.4 | -4.6 | 3 | 4.8 | -1.8 |
| 18 | Antwerp | 5 | 3 | 5.5 | -2.5 | 15 | 15.3 | -0.3 | -12 | -9.8 | -2.2 | 0 | 2.2 | -2.2 |
Westerlo are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Belgian Pro League in 2026/2027, with 20 goals from chances worth 13.3 xG, a gap of 6.7. Union Saint-Gilloise are next on 5.7.
KV Kortrijk are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Belgian Pro League in 2026/2027, with 2 goals from chances worth 8.1 xG, a shortfall of 6.1. Anderlecht are next on 4.6.
Gent are the luckiest side in the Belgian Pro League in 2026/2027, with 22 points from performances worth 14.5 xPts, 7.5 more than their chances deserved. Union Saint-Gilloise are next on 5.2.
Cercle Brugge are the unluckiest side in the Belgian Pro League in 2026/2027, with 3 points from performances worth 10.5 xPts, 7.5 short of what they deserved. Sint-Truiden are next on 4.7.
Club Brugge would be top of the Belgian Pro League in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 16.7 xPts from 22.6 xG created and 9.7 conceded across eight matches. Sporting Charleroi are next on 15.9.
Club Brugge have created the most xG in the Belgian Pro League in 2026/2027, 22.6 from eight matches, 2.8 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Sporting Charleroi and Union Saint-Gilloise are next on 16.3.
KV Kortrijk have created the least xG in the Belgian Pro League in 2026/2027, 8.1 from eight matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.6. SK Beveren are next on 8.4.
Antwerp have conceded the most xG in the Belgian Pro League in 2026/2027, 18.8 from eight matches, 2.4 a game against a competition average of 1.6. La Louvière are next on 18.1.
Gent have conceded the least xG in the Belgian Pro League in 2026/2027, 7.0 from eight matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Anderlecht are next on 7.2.
Belgian Pro League teams have averaged 1.58 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 72 matches played, and have scored 1.51 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.48 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Belgian Pro League teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.74 a game against 1.42 away, a home advantage of +0.32, against +0.20 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Brugge | 8 | 19 | 22.6 | -3.6 | 4 | 9.7 | -5.7 | +15 | 12.9 | +2.1 | 21 | 16.7 | +4.3 |
| 2 | Sporting Charleroi | 8 | 16 | 16.3 | -0.3 | 7 | 8.3 | -1.3 | +9 | 7.9 | +1.1 | 21 | 15.9 | +5.1 |
| 3 | Anderlecht | 8 | 9 | 13.6 | -4.6 | 6 | 7.2 | -1.2 | +3 | 6.4 | -3.4 | 16 | 14.9 | +1.1 |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 8 | 22 | 16.3 | +5.7 | 4 | 9.6 | -5.6 | +18 | 6.7 | +11.3 | 20 | 14.8 | +5.2 |
| 5 | Gent | 8 | 15 | 12.0 | +3.0 | 4 | 7.0 | -3.0 | +11 | 5.0 | +6.0 | 22 | 14.5 | +7.5 |
| 6 | Genk | 8 | 16 | 14.3 | +1.7 | 12 | 10.2 | +1.8 | +4 | 4.1 | -0.1 | 12 | 12.9 | -0.9 |
| 7 | Sint-Truiden | 8 | 15 | 15.8 | -0.8 | 16 | 12.7 | +3.3 | -1 | 3.1 | -4.1 | 8 | 12.7 | -4.7 |
| 8 | Standard Liège | 8 | 13 | 14.6 | -1.6 | 13 | 12.7 | +0.3 | +0 | 1.8 | -1.8 | 11 | 11.9 | -0.9 |
| 9 | Westerlo | 8 | 20 | 13.3 | +6.7 | 17 | 13.9 | +3.1 | +3 | -0.7 | +3.7 | 13 | 11.3 | +1.7 |
| 10 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | 9 | 11.8 | -2.8 | 16 | 12.4 | +3.6 | -7 | -0.5 | -6.5 | 3 | 10.5 | -7.5 |
| 11 | Zulte-Waregem | 8 | 10 | 10.0 | +0.0 | 9 | 11.4 | -2.4 | +1 | -1.3 | +2.3 | 11 | 10.1 | +0.9 |
| 12 | Mechelen | 8 | 9 | 9.6 | -0.6 | 17 | 13.0 | +4.0 | -8 | -3.4 | -4.6 | 6 | 8.6 | -2.6 |
| 13 | OH Leuven | 8 | 6 | 10.5 | -4.5 | 14 | 17.1 | -3.1 | -8 | -6.6 | -1.4 | 5 | 8.4 | -3.4 |
| 14 | Lommel SK | 8 | 9 | 8.8 | +0.2 | 9 | 14.0 | -5.0 | +0 | -5.2 | +5.2 | 11 | 8.3 | +2.7 |
| 15 | Antwerp | 8 | 12 | 11.0 | +1.0 | 20 | 18.8 | +1.2 | -8 | -7.7 | -0.3 | 7 | 7.5 | -0.5 |
| 16 | La Louvière | 8 | 8 | 10.2 | -2.2 | 18 | 18.1 | -0.1 | -10 | -7.9 | -2.1 | 4 | 7.3 | -3.3 |
| 17 | KV Kortrijk | 8 | 2 | 8.1 | -6.1 | 18 | 15.3 | +2.7 | -16 | -7.2 | -8.8 | 3 | 7.2 | -4.2 |
| 18 | SK Beveren | 8 | 8 | 8.4 | -0.4 | 14 | 15.8 | -1.8 | -6 | -7.5 | +1.5 | 9 | 6.9 | +2.1 |