No, Guadalajara have taken 20 points over 12 Liga MX games in 2026/2027, within 0.45 of the 19.55 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Guadalajara create 1.52 expected goals (xG) per game over 12 Liga MX games in 2026/2027, 18.27 in all, and have scored 19 goals from those chances, 0.73 more than that xG would expect.
Guadalajara allow 1.13 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 12 Liga MX games in 2026/2027, 13.57 in all, and have conceded 12 goals from those chances, 1.57 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Ángel Sepúlveda has the most expected goals (xG) for Guadalajara over 12 Liga MX games in 2026/2027, 1.01 xG in 11 appearances, and has scored 1 goal; Jordán Carrillo is next with 0.42 xG.
Guadalajara's results and their chances agree, within 0.5 points of xPts over 12 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 12 | 18.27 | 19 | +0.73 | 13.57 | 12 | +1.57 | 19.55 | 20 | +0.45 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 14.89 | 18 | +3.11 | 11.10 | 10 | +1.10 | 16.17 | 17 | +0.83 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.81 | 7 | +0.19 | 5.61 | 6 | -0.39 | 7.74 | 6 | -1.74 |
| Home | 6 | 9.62 | 10 | +0.38 | 7.21 | 7 | +0.21 | 9.89 | 10 | +0.11 |
| Away | 6 | 8.65 | 9 | +0.35 | 6.36 | 5 | +1.36 | 9.66 | 10 | +0.34 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Liga MX | Tigres UANL (H) | 1-1 | 1.83 | 1.09 | 1.87 | 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | Liga MX | Atlas (A) | 1-1 | 1.51 | 0.58 | 2.05 | 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | Liga MX | Querétaro (H) | 0-2 | 1.38 | 1.77 | 1.13 | 0 | L |
| 20 Sep | Liga MX | América (A) | 2-2 | 1.09 | 1.51 | 1.08 | 1 | L |
| 14 Sep | Liga MX | Pumas UNAM (H) | 3-0 | 1.00 | 0.66 | 1.61 | 3 | W |
| 5 Sep | Liga MX | Atlético San Luis (A) | 0-3 | 0.79 | 0.89 | 1.24 | 3 | L |
| 29 Aug | Liga MX | Pachuca (A) | 1-1 | 1.36 | 1.59 | 1.23 | 1 | L |
| 22 Aug | Liga MX | Tijuana (H) | 5-2 | 2.03 | 1.22 | 1.90 | 3 | W |
| 17 Aug | Liga MX | Santos Laguna (A) | 0-1 | 1.42 | 1.01 | 1.67 | 3 | W |
| 1 Aug | Liga MX | Puebla (A) | 1-1 | 2.48 | 0.78 | 2.39 | 1 | W |
| 25 Jul | Liga MX | Juárez (H) | 1-0 | 2.15 | 0.43 | 2.49 | 3 | W |
| 19 Jul | Liga MX | Toluca (H) | 0-2 | 1.23 | 2.04 | 0.89 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Marín | attacker | 12 | 715 | 0.23 | 5 | +4.77 | 0.03 |
| Roberto Alvarado | attacker | 11 | 990 | 0.24 | 4 | +3.76 | 0.02 |
| Santiago Sandoval | midfielder | 9 | 584 | 0.23 | 3 | +2.77 | 0.03 |
| Bryan Alonso González Oliván | defender | 6 | 405 | 0.11 | 2 | +1.89 | 0.02 |
| Diego Campillo | defender | 11 | 867 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Richard Ledezma | defender | 11 | 567 | 0.09 | 1 | +0.91 | 0.01 |
| Jordán Carrillo | attacker | 8 | 298 | 0.42 | 1 | +0.58 | 0.13 |
| Ángel Sepúlveda | attacker | 11 | 426 | 1.01 | 1 | -0.01 | 0.21 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlas | 12 | 17.5 | 19 | 20.4 | 18 | 14.8 | 21 | +6.2 |
| 2 | Querétaro | 11 | 17.5 | 15 | 19.2 | 13 | 14.6 | 20 | +5.4 |
| 3 | América | 11 | 21.5 | 27 | 14.9 | 14 | 19.3 | 24 | +4.7 |
| 4 | Puebla | 12 | 10.9 | 12 | 18.8 | 13 | 11.5 | 16 | +4.5 |
| 5 | Pumas UNAM | 12 | 13.7 | 19 | 18.3 | 20 | 13.7 | 16 | +2.3 |
| 6 | León | 12 | 17.8 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16.5 | 18 | +1.5 |
| 7 | Guadalajara | 12 | 18.3 | 19 | 13.6 | 12 | 19.5 | 20 | +0.5 |
| 8 | Cruz Azul | 12 | 23.7 | 27 | 17 | 21 | 20.8 | 20 | -0.8 |
| 9 | Monterrey | 11 | 17.3 | 19 | 13.2 | 16 | 17.9 | 17 | -0.9 |
| 10 | Atlético San Luis | 12 | 14.7 | 16 | 19.4 | 21 | 14 | 13 | -1 |
| 11 | Toluca | 12 | 23.5 | 26 | 13.7 | 16 | 22.5 | 21 | -1.5 |
| 12 | Pachuca | 12 | 16.8 | 19 | 20.9 | 16 | 14.5 | 13 | -1.5 |
| 13 | Santos Laguna | 12 | 21 | 17 | 18.3 | 16 | 17.6 | 16 | -1.6 |
| 14 | Tijuana | 11 | 19.3 | 15 | 14.5 | 14 | 18.2 | 16 | -2.2 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 12 | 18.4 | 14 | 17.4 | 16 | 16.9 | 14 | -2.9 |
| 16 | Atlante | 12 | 14.6 | 13 | 18.1 | 19 | 14.1 | 11 | -3.1 |
| 17 | Juárez | 12 | 11.5 | 8 | 23.6 | 31 | 10.1 | 4 | -6.1 |
| 18 | Necaxa | 12 | 21 | 15 | 19.8 | 25 | 17.3 | 9 | -8.3 |