No, Grazer AK have taken 26 points over their last 20 Austrian Bundesliga games, within 0.40 of the 26.40 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Grazer AK create 1.17 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Austrian Bundesliga games, 23.42 in all, and have scored 27 goals from those chances, 3.58 more than that xG would expect.
Grazer AK allow 1.44 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Austrian Bundesliga games, 28.86 in all, and have conceded 33 goals from those chances, 4.14 more than that xGA would expect.
Alexander Hofleitner has the most expected goals (xG) for Grazer AK over their last 20 Austrian Bundesliga games, 5.25 xG in 19 appearances, and has scored 5 goals; Ramiz Harakate is next with 2.83 xG.
Grazer AK's results and their chances agree, within 0.4 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 23.42 | 27 | +3.58 | 28.86 | 33 | -4.14 | 26.40 | 26 | -0.40 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 10.57 | 10 | -0.57 | 17.88 | 22 | -4.12 | 11.82 | 12 | +0.18 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.61 | 5 | -0.61 | 7.13 | 9 | -1.87 | 6.71 | 6 | -0.71 |
| Home | 9 | 13.06 | 15 | +1.94 | 8.89 | 7 | +1.89 | 15.44 | 17 | +1.56 |
| Away | 11 | 10.36 | 12 | +1.64 | 19.97 | 26 | -6.03 | 10.96 | 9 | -1.96 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Austrian Bundesliga | Sturm Graz (A) | 6-1 | 0.51 | 4.00 | 0.10 | 0 | L |
| 10 Oct | Austrian Bundesliga | Salzburg (H) | 0-0 | 1.75 | 0.95 | 1.92 | 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | Austrian Bundesliga | Austria Wien (H) | 2-2 | 0.84 | 1.07 | 1.16 | 1 | L |
| 12 Sep | Austrian Bundesliga | Altach (A) | 1-2 | 0.48 | 0.96 | 0.90 | 3 | L |
| 29 Aug | Austrian Bundesliga | Górnik (H) | 0-0 | 2.03 | 0.15 | 2.63 | 1 | W |
| 21 Aug | Austrian Bundesliga | Ried (A) | 1-0 | 0.99 | 1.76 | 0.87 | 0 | L |
| 16 Aug | Austrian Bundesliga | SK Rapid (A) | 8-0 | 0.52 | 5.30 | 0.04 | 0 | L |
| 8 Aug | Austrian Bundesliga | Lustenau (H) | 2-1 | 1.28 | 0.60 | 1.89 | 3 | W |
| 31 Jul | Austrian Bundesliga | LASK Linz (A) | 3-0 | 0.71 | 2.26 | 0.48 | 0 | L |
| 16 May | Austrian Bundesliga | Blau-Weiß Linz (A) | 0-3 | 1.46 | 0.83 | 1.83 | 3 | W |
| 9 May | Austrian Bundesliga | Altach (H) | 2-2 | 1.29 | 0.89 | 1.66 | 1 | W |
| 2 May | Austrian Bundesliga | WSG Tirol (H) | 4-0 | 0.91 | 0.48 | 1.69 | 3 | W |
| 25 Apr | Austrian Bundesliga | Górnik (A) | 1-0 | 0.97 | 0.72 | 1.54 | 0 | W |
| 21 Apr | Austrian Bundesliga | Ried (A) | 2-1 | 0.54 | 1.63 | 0.60 | 0 | L |
| 17 Apr | Austrian Bundesliga | Ried (H) | 1-1 | 0.86 | 2.74 | 0.42 | 1 | L |
| 11 Apr | Austrian Bundesliga | Altach (A) | 1-0 | 0.54 | 1.06 | 0.89 | 0 | L |
| 4 Apr | Austrian Bundesliga | Blau-Weiß Linz (H) | 2-1 | 1.78 | 1.08 | 1.84 | 3 | W |
| 21 Mar | Austrian Bundesliga | WSG Tirol (A) | 1-5 | 3.01 | 0.35 | 2.76 | 3 | W |
| 14 Mar | Austrian Bundesliga | Górnik (H) | 2-0 | 2.32 | 0.93 | 2.23 | 3 | W |
| 8 Mar | Austrian Bundesliga | WSG Tirol (A) | 2-0 | 0.63 | 1.10 | 0.95 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Italiano | defender | 14 | 1106 | 1.63 | 5 | +3.37 | 0.13 |
| Mark Grosse | midfielder | 15 | 547 | 0.93 | 3 | +2.07 | 0.15 |
| Daniel Maderner | attacker | 12 | 380 | 1.25 | 3 | +1.75 | 0.30 |
| Ramiz Harakate | attacker | 11 | 935 | 2.83 | 4 | +1.17 | 0.27 |
| Beres Owusu | defender | 19 | 1703 | 0.18 | 1 | +0.82 | 0.01 |
| Christopher Cvetko | midfielder | 4 | 320 | 0.18 | 1 | +0.82 | 0.05 |
| Murat Satin | midfielder | 10 | 290 | 0.32 | 1 | +0.68 | 0.10 |
| Christian Lichtenberger | midfielder | 19 | 1166 | 1.50 | 2 | +0.50 | 0.12 |
| Donovan Pines | defender | 16 | 1440 | 0.56 | 1 | +0.44 | 0.03 |
| Yannick Oberleitner | defender | 7 | 627 | 0.87 | 1 | +0.13 | 0.12 |
| Alexander Hofleitner | attacker | 19 | 1405 | 5.25 | 5 | -0.25 | 0.34 |
| Mathias Olesen | midfielder | 11 | 892 | 1.51 | 1 | -0.51 | 0.15 |
| Anderson | defender | 7 | 448 | 0.63 | 0 | -0.63 | 0.13 |
| Peter Michorl | midfielder | 9 | 803 | 0.63 | 0 | -0.63 | 0.07 |
| Anthony Smits | attacker | 5 | 125 | 0.70 | 0 | -0.70 | 0.51 |
| Leon Klassen | defender | 19 | 1654 | 2.03 | 0 | -2.03 | 0.11 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SK Rapid | 9 | 18.2 | 26 | 9 | 8 | 16.7 | 24 | +7.3 |
| 2 | Salzburg | 9 | 20.3 | 21 | 10.1 | 4 | 18 | 21 | +3 |
| 3 | Sturm Graz | 9 | 16.9 | 16 | 12.8 | 10 | 14.3 | 17 | +2.7 |
| 4 | Hartberg | 9 | 9.2 | 15 | 15.6 | 19 | 8.7 | 11 | +2.3 |
| 5 | Ried | 9 | 16.6 | 16 | 14.8 | 15 | 12.8 | 14 | +1.2 |
| 6 | Austria Lustenau | 9 | 10.3 | 11 | 18 | 19 | 8.2 | 8 | -0.2 |
| 7 | LASK Linz | 9 | 19.1 | 23 | 7.4 | 9 | 19.4 | 19 | -0.4 |
| 8 | Grazer AK | 9 | 9.1 | 7 | 17 | 22 | 10 | 9 | -1 |
| 9 | Austria Wien | 9 | 9.7 | 9 | 15.3 | 18 | 9.2 | 7 | -2.2 |
| 10 | Wolfsberger AC | 9 | 9.5 | 7 | 19 | 18 | 7.4 | 5 | -2.4 |
| 11 | WSG Tirol | 9 | 15.8 | 12 | 14.4 | 14 | 13.6 | 11 | -2.6 |
| 12 | Rheindorf Altach | 9 | 10.6 | 8 | 12.1 | 15 | 12 | 6 | -6 |