No, Estrela have taken 17 points over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, 7.99 fewer than the 24.99 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Estrela create 1.33 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, 26.68 in all, and have scored 26 goals from those chances, 0.68 fewer than that xG would expect.
Estrela allow 1.50 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, 29.93 in all, and have conceded 32 goals from those chances, 2.07 more than that xGA would expect.
Ianis Stoica has the most expected goals (xG) for Estrela over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, 4.59 xG in 20 appearances, and has scored 5 goals; Abraham Marcus is next with 4.26 xG.
Estrela have taken 8.0 points fewer than their chances warranted over 20 games: -0.7 goals against their xG, and -2.1 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 26.68 | 26 | -0.68 | 29.93 | 32 | -2.07 | 24.99 | 17 | -7.99 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 12.72 | 16 | +3.28 | 15.33 | 17 | -1.67 | 12.21 | 12 | -0.21 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 7.36 | 7 | -0.36 | 6.25 | 9 | -2.75 | 7.46 | 5 | -2.46 |
| Home | 10 | 11.55 | 13 | +1.45 | 15.93 | 14 | +1.93 | 10.60 | 10 | -0.60 |
| Away | 10 | 15.13 | 13 | -2.13 | 14.00 | 18 | -4.00 | 14.39 | 7 | -7.39 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Liga Portugal | Arouca (A) | 1-0 | 1.51 | 0.83 | 1.86 | 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | Liga Portugal | Ac. Viseu (H) | 0-2 | 1.30 | 1.88 | 1.02 | 0 | L |
| 14 Sep | Liga Portugal | Rio Ave (A) | 3-3 | 2.73 | 1.28 | 2.20 | 1 | W |
| 10 Sep | Liga Portugal | Braga (H) | 2-1 | 0.68 | 0.72 | 1.28 | 3 | D |
| 5 Sep | Liga Portugal | Famalicão (H) | 2-2 | 1.14 | 1.54 | 1.10 | 1 | L |
| 30 Aug | Liga Portugal | Nacional (A) | 2-3 | 2.33 | 0.81 | 2.32 | 3 | W |
| 15 Aug | Liga Portugal | Alverca (A) | 2-2 | 1.25 | 1.45 | 1.23 | 1 | L |
| 8 Aug | Liga Portugal | Sporting (H) | 2-2 | 0.94 | 2.58 | 0.50 | 1 | L |
| 16 May | Liga Portugal | Braga (A) | 2-2 | 0.55 | 2.17 | 0.41 | 1 | L |
| 11 May | Liga Portugal | Famalicão (H) | 0-0 | 0.29 | 2.07 | 0.29 | 1 | L |
| 2 May | Liga Portugal | Moreirense (A) | 3-2 | 2.42 | 2.03 | 1.61 | 0 | W |
| 26 Apr | Liga Portugal | Porto (H) | 1-2 | 1.41 | 2.02 | 1.02 | 0 | L |
| 19 Apr | Liga Portugal | Arouca (A) | 1-0 | 1.35 | 0.96 | 1.65 | 0 | W |
| 11 Apr | Liga Portugal | Sporting (H) | 0-1 | 0.43 | 1.01 | 0.82 | 0 | L |
| 4 Apr | Liga Portugal | Nacional (A) | 2-0 | 0.64 | 1.19 | 0.90 | 0 | L |
| 20 Mar | Liga Portugal | Casa Pia (H) | 4-0 | 3.17 | 0.42 | 2.75 | 3 | W |
| 15 Mar | Liga Portugal | Rio Ave (A) | 2-1 | 1.53 | 2.47 | 0.88 | 0 | L |
| 8 Mar | Liga Portugal | Gil Vicente (H) | 2-2 | 1.28 | 2.27 | 0.82 | 1 | L |
| 28 Feb | Liga Portugal | AVS (A) | 0-0 | 0.82 | 0.81 | 1.33 | 1 | D |
| 20 Feb | Liga Portugal | Tondela (H) | 0-2 | 0.91 | 1.42 | 1.00 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abraham Marcus | attacker | 20 | 1759 | 4.26 | 6 | +1.74 | 0.22 |
| Stefan Leković | defender | 15 | 1348 | 0.93 | 2 | +1.07 | 0.06 |
| Leandro Antonetti | attacker | 12 | 765 | 3.28 | 4 | +0.72 | 0.39 |
| Max Scholze | defender | 18 | 1288 | 0.37 | 1 | +0.63 | 0.03 |
| B. Souza | midfielder | 8 | 190 | 0.37 | 1 | +0.63 | 0.17 |
| Jovane Cabral | attacker | 12 | 660 | 2.42 | 3 | +0.58 | 0.33 |
| Ianis Stoica | attacker | 20 | 1348 | 4.59 | 5 | +0.41 | 0.31 |
| Eddy Doué | midfielder | 18 | 1226 | 0.68 | 1 | +0.32 | 0.05 |
| Santiago Ferreira Serra | midfielder | 5 | 366 | 0.65 | 0 | -0.65 | 0.16 |
| Robinho | midfielder | 12 | 603 | 0.67 | 0 | -0.67 | 0.10 |
| Kevin Höög Jansson | midfielder | 16 | 798 | 0.68 | 0 | -0.68 | 0.08 |
| Lovro Zvonarek | midfielder | 8 | 694 | 0.99 | 0 | -0.99 | 0.13 |
| Rodrigo Pinho | attacker | 11 | 703 | 4.09 | 3 | -1.09 | 0.52 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 8 | 18.7 | 20 | 7.9 | 4 | 17.2 | 24 | +6.8 |
| 2 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 9.7 | 11 | 14.2 | 10 | 8.6 | 14 | +5.4 |
| 3 | Arouca | 8 | 8.9 | 11 | 11.2 | 7 | 10 | 14 | +4 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 14.4 | 18 | +3.6 |
| 5 | Sporting CP | 8 | 13.8 | 20 | 7.1 | 9 | 15.1 | 18 | +2.9 |
| 6 | Rio Ave | 8 | 6.2 | 8 | 14.9 | 17 | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 8 | 6.6 | 8 | 14.1 | 15 | 6.7 | 8 | +1.3 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 11.2 | 13 | 12.1 | 12 | 10.3 | 11 | +0.7 |
| 9 | Benfica | 8 | 18.6 | 24 | 5.8 | 7 | 18.4 | 19 | +0.6 |
| 10 | MarÃtimo | 8 | 7.1 | 9 | 11.3 | 14 | 8.4 | 8 | -0.4 |
| 11 | Sporting Braga | 7 | 8.8 | 8 | 5.3 | 8 | 11.9 | 11 | -0.9 |
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 10 | 6 | 6.6 | 5 | 12.1 | 11 | -1.1 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 8 | 6.7 | 10 | 11.4 | 11 | 8.2 | 7 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 11.9 | 14 | 11.1 | 15 | 11.5 | 10 | -1.5 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 8 | 7 | 3 | 13.7 | 17 | 7.1 | 4 | -3.1 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 9.6 | 9 | 14 | 18 | 9 | 4 | -5 |
| 17 | Estoril | 8 | 7.4 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 8.1 | 2 | -6.1 |
| 18 | Vitória Guimarães | 8 | 13.3 | 5 | 7.8 | 10 | 14.2 | 5 | -9.2 |