No, Estoril have taken 11 points over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, 7.78 fewer than the 18.78 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Estoril create 0.92 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, 18.48 in all, and have scored 15 goals from those chances, 3.48 fewer than that xG would expect.
Estoril allow 1.61 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, 32.27 in all, and have conceded 31 goals from those chances, 1.27 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Yanis Begraoui has the most expected goals (xG) for Estoril over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, 5.21 xG in 19 appearances, and has scored 7 goals; João Carvalho is next with 1.73 xG.
Estoril have taken 7.8 points fewer than their chances warranted over 20 games: -3.5 goals against their xG, and +1.3 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 18.48 | 15 | -3.48 | 32.27 | 31 | +1.27 | 18.78 | 11 | -7.78 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 9.87 | 6 | -3.87 | 16.45 | 16 | +0.45 | 9.72 | 3 | -6.72 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 4.34 | 3 | -1.34 | 8.09 | 7 | +1.09 | 4.44 | 1 | -3.44 |
| Home | 10 | 10.64 | 8 | -2.64 | 18.08 | 15 | +3.08 | 9.31 | 6 | -3.31 |
| Away | 10 | 7.84 | 7 | -0.84 | 14.19 | 16 | -1.81 | 9.47 | 5 | -4.47 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Liga Portugal | Ac. Viseu (A) | 2-1 | 1.21 | 1.04 | 1.48 | 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | Liga Portugal | Casa Pia (H) | 1-2 | 1.25 | 2.11 | 0.87 | 0 | L |
| 14 Sep | Liga Portugal | Braga (A) | 1-0 | 0.82 | 1.98 | 0.65 | 0 | L |
| 7 Sep | Liga Portugal | Arouca (H) | 0-0 | 0.72 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1 | L |
| 31 Aug | Liga Portugal | Benfica (A) | 2-1 | 0.34 | 1.96 | 0.34 | 0 | L |
| 22 Aug | Liga Portugal | Rio Ave (H) | 0-2 | 1.45 | 0.60 | 2.01 | 0 | W |
| 16 Aug | Liga Portugal | Nacional (A) | 2-0 | 0.71 | 2.03 | 0.56 | 0 | L |
| 7 Aug | Liga Portugal | Famalicão (H) | 1-1 | 0.89 | 1.30 | 1.05 | 1 | L |
| 16 May | Liga Portugal | Benfica (H) | 1-3 | 1.90 | 3.44 | 0.69 | 0 | L |
| 10 May | Liga Portugal | Alverca (A) | 1-1 | 0.58 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 1 | L |
| 3 May | Liga Portugal | Braga (A) | 1-1 | 0.93 | 0.52 | 1.68 | 1 | W |
| 26 Apr | Liga Portugal | Famalicão (H) | 0-1 | 0.54 | 1.38 | 0.72 | 0 | L |
| 20 Apr | Liga Portugal | Moreirense (A) | 1-0 | 0.38 | 1.04 | 0.75 | 0 | L |
| 12 Apr | Liga Portugal | Porto (H) | 1-3 | 0.50 | 2.35 | 0.34 | 0 | L |
| 6 Apr | Liga Portugal | Arouca (A) | 3-2 | 0.93 | 1.71 | 0.85 | 0 | L |
| 22 Mar | Liga Portugal | Rio Ave (H) | 1-2 | 1.18 | 1.97 | 0.90 | 0 | L |
| 15 Mar | Liga Portugal | Nacional (A) | 0-1 | 1.39 | 0.89 | 1.74 | 3 | W |
| 7 Mar | Liga Portugal | Casa Pia (H) | 0-0 | 0.48 | 1.40 | 0.66 | 1 | L |
| 27 Feb | Liga Portugal | Sporting (A) | 3-0 | 0.55 | 2.03 | 0.45 | 0 | L |
| 22 Feb | Liga Portugal | Gil Vicente (H) | 3-1 | 1.73 | 2.53 | 0.97 | 3 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yanis Begraoui | attacker | 19 | 1669 | 5.21 | 7 | +1.79 | 0.28 |
| Felix Bacher | defender | 12 | 1080 | 0.47 | 2 | +1.53 | 0.04 |
| Ferro | defender | 16 | 1287 | 0.08 | 1 | +0.92 | 0.01 |
| Xeka | midfielder | 13 | 802 | 0.55 | 1 | +0.45 | 0.06 |
| Rafik Guitane | attacker | 18 | 992 | 1.19 | 1 | -0.19 | 0.11 |
| Ricard Sánchez | defender | 19 | 1573 | 1.22 | 1 | -0.22 | 0.07 |
| Peixinho | attacker | 10 | 208 | 1.30 | 1 | -0.30 | 0.56 |
| Pedro Carvalho | defender | 18 | 555 | 0.62 | 0 | -0.62 | 0.10 |
| Jordan Holsgrove | midfielder | 17 | 1395 | 0.67 | 0 | -0.67 | 0.04 |
| André Lacximicant | attacker | 15 | 850 | 1.69 | 1 | -0.69 | 0.18 |
| Alejandro Marqués | attacker | 10 | 363 | 1.56 | 0 | -1.56 | 0.39 |
| João Carvalho | midfielder | 19 | 1617 | 1.73 | 0 | -1.73 | 0.10 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 8 | 18.7 | 20 | 7.9 | 4 | 17.2 | 24 | +6.8 |
| 2 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 9.7 | 11 | 14.2 | 10 | 8.6 | 14 | +5.4 |
| 3 | Arouca | 8 | 8.9 | 11 | 11.2 | 7 | 10 | 14 | +4 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 14.4 | 18 | +3.6 |
| 5 | Sporting CP | 8 | 13.8 | 20 | 7.1 | 9 | 15.1 | 18 | +2.9 |
| 6 | Rio Ave | 8 | 6.2 | 8 | 14.9 | 17 | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 8 | 6.6 | 8 | 14.1 | 15 | 6.7 | 8 | +1.3 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 11.2 | 13 | 12.1 | 12 | 10.3 | 11 | +0.7 |
| 9 | Benfica | 8 | 18.6 | 24 | 5.8 | 7 | 18.4 | 19 | +0.6 |
| 10 | MarÃtimo | 8 | 7.1 | 9 | 11.3 | 14 | 8.4 | 8 | -0.4 |
| 11 | Sporting Braga | 7 | 8.8 | 8 | 5.3 | 8 | 11.9 | 11 | -0.9 |
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 10 | 6 | 6.6 | 5 | 12.1 | 11 | -1.1 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 8 | 6.7 | 10 | 11.4 | 11 | 8.2 | 7 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 11.9 | 14 | 11.1 | 15 | 11.5 | 10 | -1.5 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 8 | 7 | 3 | 13.7 | 17 | 7.1 | 4 | -3.1 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 9.6 | 9 | 14 | 18 | 9 | 4 | -5 |
| 17 | Estoril | 8 | 7.4 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 8.1 | 2 | -6.1 |
| 18 | Vitória Guimarães | 8 | 13.3 | 5 | 7.8 | 10 | 14.2 | 5 | -9.2 |