No, Cincinnati have taken 36 points over 28 Major League Soccer games in 2026, within 2.49 of the 38.49 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Cincinnati create 1.83 expected goals (xG) per game over 28 Major League Soccer games in 2026, 51.34 in all, and have scored 60 goals from those chances, 8.66 more than that xG would expect.
Cincinnati allow 1.87 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 28 Major League Soccer games in 2026, 52.47 in all, and have conceded 68 goals from those chances, 15.53 more than that xGA would expect.
Kévin Denkey has the most expected goals (xG) for Cincinnati over 28 Major League Soccer games in 2026, 15.39 xG in 26 appearances, and has scored 17 goals; Evander is next with 9.63 xG.
Cincinnati's results and their chances agree, within 2.5 points of xPts over 28 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/ | 28 | 51.34 | 60 | +8.66 | 52.47 | 68 | -15.53 | 38.49 | 36 | -2.49 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 18.17 | 15 | -3.17 | 18.04 | 24 | -5.96 | 13.87 | 10 | -3.87 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 13.39 | 11 | -2.39 | 8.39 | 12 | -3.61 | 9.27 | 5 | -4.27 |
| Home | 13 | 26.54 | 36 | +9.46 | 21.23 | 27 | -5.77 | 20.93 | 24 | +3.07 |
| Away | 15 | 24.80 | 24 | -0.80 | 31.24 | 41 | -9.76 | 17.56 | 12 | -5.56 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct | Major League Soccer | New England (H) | 2-3 | 1.91 | 1.20 | 1.84 | 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | Major League Soccer | Atlanta (A) | 1-3 | 1.87 | 1.84 | 1.41 | 3 | W |
| 26 Sep | Major League Soccer | CF Montréal (A) | 3-1 | 2.52 | 2.21 | 1.57 | 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | Major League Soccer | Houston (A) | 2-2 | 4.37 | 1.34 | 2.56 | 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | Major League Soccer | Charlotte (H) | 3-3 | 2.72 | 1.80 | 1.89 | 1 | W |
| 9 Sep | Major League Soccer | Philadelphia (A) | 5-0 | 0.03 | 3.53 | 0.03 | 0 | L |
| 30 Aug | Major League Soccer | Nashville SC (A) | 4-0 | 1.44 | 1.92 | 1.09 | 0 | L |
| 22 Aug | Major League Soccer | Seattle (H) | 1-1 | 1.21 | 1.11 | 1.43 | 1 | W |
| 19 Aug | Major League Soccer | NYCFC (H) | 2-1 | 1.19 | 1.52 | 1.15 | 3 | L |
| 15 Aug | Major League Soccer | Orlando City (A) | 1-1 | 0.91 | 1.57 | 0.90 | 1 | L |
| 2 Aug | Major League Soccer | San Jose (H) | 4-2 | 2.28 | 1.53 | 1.83 | 3 | W |
| 25 Jul | Major League Soccer | Columbus (A) | 2-1 | 0.87 | 2.17 | 0.60 | 0 | L |
| 22 Jul | Major League Soccer | Vancouver (H) | 4-3 | 1.57 | 1.90 | 1.18 | 3 | L |
| 23 May | Major League Soccer | Orlando City (H) | 6-2 | 3.50 | 2.09 | 2.06 | 3 | W |
| 17 May | Major League Soccer | San Diego (A) | 3-3 | 1.64 | 1.40 | 1.53 | 1 | W |
| 13 May | Major League Soccer | Inter Miami (H) | 3-5 | 1.50 | 2.66 | 0.78 | 0 | L |
| 9 May | Major League Soccer | Charlotte (A) | 2-2 | 1.48 | 1.84 | 1.16 | 1 | L |
| 3 May | Major League Soccer | Chicago Fire (A) | 2-3 | 1.94 | 4.67 | 0.38 | 3 | L |
| 25 Apr | Major League Soccer | New York RB (H) | 2-0 | 2.65 | 1.74 | 1.90 | 3 | W |
| 22 Apr | Major League Soccer | NYCFC (A) | 4-4 | 1.82 | 2.44 | 1.06 | 1 | L |
| 18 Apr | Major League Soccer | Chicago Fire (H) | 3-3 | 3.63 | 2.01 | 2.14 | 1 | W |
| 11 Apr | Major League Soccer | Toronto (A) | 1-1 | 0.81 | 0.53 | 1.56 | 1 | W |
| 4 Apr | Major League Soccer | New York RB (A) | 4-2 | 2.46 | 2.25 | 1.51 | 0 | W |
| 22 Mar | Major League Soccer | CF Montréal (H) | 4-3 | 1.73 | 2.30 | 1.08 | 3 | L |
| 15 Mar | Major League Soccer | New England (A) | 6-1 | 1.52 | 1.63 | 1.31 | 0 | L |
| 8 Mar | Major League Soccer | Toronto (H) | 0-1 | 1.00 | 0.78 | 1.52 | 0 | W |
| 28 Feb | Major League Soccer | Minnesota (A) | 1-0 | 1.12 | 1.90 | 0.89 | 0 | L |
| 21 Feb | Major League Soccer | Atlanta (H) | 2-0 | 1.65 | 0.59 | 2.13 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Bucha | midfielder | 26 | 2168 | 2.44 | 6 | +3.56 | 0.10 |
| Evander | midfielder | 25 | 1987 | 9.63 | 13 | +3.37 | 0.44 |
| Tom Barlow | attacker | 28 | 1171 | 6.03 | 9 | +2.97 | 0.46 |
| Kévin Denkey | attacker | 26 | 2109 | 15.39 | 17 | +1.61 | 0.66 |
| Kenji Mboma Dem | attacker | 23 | 1372 | 3.82 | 5 | +1.18 | 0.25 |
| A. Chirilă | defender | 9 | 672 | 0.18 | 1 | +0.82 | 0.02 |
| Bryan RamÃrez | attacker | 25 | 1659 | 1.45 | 2 | +0.55 | 0.08 |
| Nick Hagglund | defender | 17 | 1117 | 0.88 | 1 | +0.12 | 0.07 |
| Kyle Smith | defender | 23 | 1183 | 1.01 | 1 | -0.01 | 0.08 |
| Ender Echenique | attacker | 25 | 1627 | 1.45 | 1 | -0.45 | 0.08 |
| Ayoub Jabbari | attacker | 24 | 619 | 2.60 | 2 | -0.60 | 0.38 |
| Obinna Nwobodo | midfielder | 22 | 1072 | 0.62 | 0 | -0.62 | 0.05 |
| Matt Miazga | defender | 14 | 973 | 0.63 | 0 | -0.63 | 0.06 |
| Miles Robinson | defender | 20 | 1553 | 0.68 | 0 | -0.68 | 0.04 |
| Teenage Hadebe | defender | 16 | 645 | 0.98 | 0 | -0.98 | 0.14 |
| Gerardo Valenzuela | midfielder | 24 | 1641 | 2.13 | 1 | -1.13 | 0.12 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 30 | 49.9 | 64 | 38.1 | 23 | 46.5 | 67 | +20.5 |
| 2 | New England | 30 | 45.4 | 49 | 45 | 41 | 40.9 | 52 | +11.1 |
| 3 | Houston Dynamo | 30 | 33.9 | 41 | 43.6 | 39 | 36.7 | 47 | +10.3 |
| 4 | Inter Miami | 30 | 58.3 | 73 | 49.4 | 51 | 46.6 | 55 | +8.4 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 30 | 47.3 | 53 | 52.7 | 45 | 39.7 | 47 | +7.3 |
| 6 | Dallas | 30 | 46.4 | 55 | 41.9 | 47 | 44.7 | 51 | +6.3 |
| 7 | Orlando City | 30 | 47.6 | 58 | 59.5 | 70 | 36.3 | 41 | +4.7 |
| 8 | Austin | 30 | 30.3 | 38 | 61.7 | 56 | 26.3 | 31 | +4.7 |
| 9 | St. Louis City | 30 | 47.1 | 56 | 38.2 | 41 | 46.9 | 51 | +4.1 |
| 10 | Chicago Fire | 30 | 54.6 | 52 | 44 | 44 | 46.7 | 48 | +1.3 |
| 11 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | 47.2 | 48 | 43.1 | 33 | 44.8 | 46 | +1.2 |
| 12 | Toronto | 30 | 37.3 | 46 | 47.7 | 55 | 34.8 | 36 | +1.2 |
| 13 | LA Galaxy | 31 | 46.2 | 43 | 52.3 | 52 | 39.3 | 40 | +0.7 |
| 14 | Seattle Sounders | 30 | 44 | 39 | 44.3 | 37 | 41.4 | 42 | +0.6 |
| 15 | SJ Earthquakes | 30 | 54.2 | 52 | 41 | 42 | 47.6 | 48 | +0.4 |
| 16 | New York RB | 30 | 49.4 | 39 | 56.5 | 56 | 37.8 | 36 | -1.8 |
| 17 | Cincinnati | 28 | 51.3 | 60 | 52.5 | 68 | 38.5 | 36 | -2.5 |
| 18 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 62.9 | 63 | 32.2 | 31 | 57.7 | 55 | -2.7 |
| 19 | Real Salt Lake | 30 | 41.9 | 45 | 44.7 | 48 | 39.1 | 36 | -3.1 |
| 20 | DC United | 29 | 44.4 | 37 | 51.6 | 51 | 36.1 | 33 | -3.1 |
| 21 | Philadelphia Union | 30 | 60.6 | 61 | 41.8 | 48 | 51.4 | 46 | -5.4 |
| 22 | Portland Timbers | 30 | 43.8 | 51 | 48.3 | 56 | 39.8 | 34 | -5.8 |
| 23 | Colorado Rapids | 30 | 45.5 | 41 | 35 | 41 | 45.5 | 39 | -6.5 |
| 24 | Sporting KC | 30 | 35.1 | 36 | 60.9 | 75 | 29 | 22 | -7 |
| 25 | New York City | 30 | 43.3 | 43 | 43.2 | 41 | 41.8 | 34 | -7.8 |
| 26 | San Diego | 30 | 48.9 | 53 | 49.1 | 56 | 43.7 | 34 | -9.7 |
| 27 | Atlanta United | 30 | 44.3 | 37 | 46.6 | 51 | 40.2 | 30 | -10.2 |
| 28 | Minnesota United | 30 | 52.1 | 47 | 49.3 | 55 | 44.3 | 34 | -10.3 |
| 29 | Columbus Crew | 29 | 44.1 | 44 | 35.7 | 47 | 43.1 | 32 | -11.1 |
| 30 | CF Montréal | 30 | 42.4 | 36 | 50.1 | 60 | 38 | 25 | -13 |