No, Chicago Fire have taken 48 points over 30 Major League Soccer games in 2026, within 1.33 of the 46.67 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Chicago Fire create 1.82 expected goals (xG) per game over 30 Major League Soccer games in 2026, 54.60 in all, and have scored 52 goals from those chances, 2.60 fewer than that xG would expect.
Chicago Fire allow 1.47 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 30 Major League Soccer games in 2026, 43.96 in all, and have conceded 44 goals from those chances, 0.04 more than that xGA would expect.
Philip Zinckernagel has the most expected goals (xG) for Chicago Fire over 30 Major League Soccer games in 2026, 10.52 xG in 29 appearances, and has scored 6 goals; Hugo Cuypers is next with 10.15 xG.
Chicago Fire's results and their chances agree, within 1.3 points of xPts over 30 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/ | 30 | 54.60 | 52 | -2.60 | 43.96 | 44 | -0.04 | 46.67 | 48 | +1.33 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 16.57 | 15 | -1.57 | 15.32 | 18 | -2.68 | 14.67 | 12 | -2.67 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 7.92 | 7 | -0.92 | 7.57 | 6 | +1.57 | 7.15 | 9 | +1.85 |
| Home | 15 | 31.38 | 28 | -3.38 | 21.05 | 19 | +2.05 | 25.39 | 28 | +2.61 |
| Away | 15 | 23.22 | 24 | +0.78 | 22.91 | 25 | -2.09 | 21.28 | 20 | -1.28 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Major League Soccer | New England (A) | 1-0 | 1.30 | 0.37 | 2.11 | 0 | W |
| 15 Oct | Major League Soccer | Philadelphia (H) | 1-3 | 1.18 | 2.45 | 0.68 | 0 | L |
| 10 Oct | Major League Soccer | NYCFC (H) | 2-1 | 1.04 | 1.54 | 1.02 | 3 | L |
| 7 Oct | Major League Soccer | Vancouver (H) | 3-1 | 3.05 | 1.39 | 2.26 | 3 | W |
| 26 Sep | Major League Soccer | Charlotte (A) | 0-1 | 1.35 | 1.82 | 1.08 | 3 | L |
| 20 Sep | Major League Soccer | Nashville SC (A) | 3-0 | 0.85 | 2.32 | 0.54 | 0 | L |
| 13 Sep | Major League Soccer | New England (H) | 1-2 | 2.17 | 1.05 | 2.08 | 0 | W |
| 10 Sep | Major League Soccer | Inter Miami (H) | 1-1 | 1.27 | 1.67 | 1.12 | 1 | L |
| 5 Sep | Major League Soccer | Toronto (A) | 4-4 | 2.24 | 1.47 | 1.85 | 1 | W |
| 29 Aug | Major League Soccer | Seattle (A) | 2-2 | 2.12 | 1.24 | 1.93 | 1 | W |
| 22 Aug | Major League Soccer | New York RB (A) | 1-1 | 0.97 | 0.72 | 1.54 | 1 | W |
| 19 Aug | Major League Soccer | Orlando City (A) | 1-2 | 1.31 | 1.67 | 1.14 | 3 | L |
| 16 Aug | Major League Soccer | Portland (H) | 2-1 | 1.03 | 1.15 | 1.26 | 3 | L |
| 2 Aug | Major League Soccer | Charlotte (H) | 2-1 | 1.30 | 1.36 | 1.33 | 3 | L |
| 25 Jul | Major League Soccer | NYCFC (A) | 3-1 | 1.43 | 1.61 | 1.26 | 0 | L |
| 22 Jul | Major League Soccer | Inter Miami (A) | 3-2 | 2.08 | 2.27 | 1.29 | 0 | L |
| 24 May | Major League Soccer | Toronto (H) | 2-1 | 1.83 | 1.33 | 1.71 | 3 | W |
| 16 May | Major League Soccer | CF Montréal (A) | 0-2 | 1.55 | 1.03 | 1.74 | 3 | W |
| 13 May | Major League Soccer | DC United (A) | 1-3 | 2.40 | 0.86 | 2.31 | 3 | W |
| 9 May | Major League Soccer | New York RB (H) | 1-3 | 1.43 | 1.66 | 1.23 | 0 | L |
| 3 May | Major League Soccer | Cincinnati (H) | 2-3 | 4.67 | 1.94 | 2.38 | 0 | W |
| 26 Apr | Major League Soccer | Sporting KC (H) | 5-0 | 3.07 | 0.40 | 2.74 | 3 | W |
| 18 Apr | Major League Soccer | Cincinnati (A) | 3-3 | 2.01 | 3.63 | 0.68 | 1 | L |
| 12 Apr | Major League Soccer | Atlanta (H) | 1-0 | 2.31 | 2.35 | 1.38 | 3 | L |
| 5 Apr | Major League Soccer | Nashville SC (H) | 1-0 | 1.33 | 1.05 | 1.57 | 3 | W |
| 21 Mar | Major League Soccer | Philadelphia (A) | 1-2 | 2.37 | 0.89 | 2.28 | 3 | W |
| 15 Mar | Major League Soccer | DC United (H) | 1-2 | 2.19 | 1.61 | 1.74 | 0 | W |
| 8 Mar | Major League Soccer | Columbus (A) | 0-0 | 0.68 | 2.12 | 0.51 | 1 | L |
| 28 Feb | Major League Soccer | CF Montréal (H) | 3-0 | 3.51 | 0.10 | 2.89 | 3 | W |
| 22 Feb | Major League Soccer | Houston (A) | 2-1 | 0.56 | 0.89 | 1.02 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maren Haile-Selassie | midfielder | 30 | 2181 | 6.28 | 11 | +4.72 | 0.26 |
| Hugo Cuypers | attacker | 11 | 990 | 10.15 | 13 | +2.85 | 0.92 |
| Robert Lewandowski | attacker | 15 | 1057 | 4.73 | 6 | +1.27 | 0.40 |
| Joel Waterman | defender | 15 | 1093 | 0.49 | 1 | +0.51 | 0.04 |
| Djé D'Avilla | midfielder | 28 | 2016 | 0.82 | 1 | +0.18 | 0.04 |
| P. Dithejane | attacker | 23 | 631 | 1.97 | 2 | +0.03 | 0.28 |
| Johan Arath Gomez | midfielder | 8 | 345 | 1.11 | 1 | -0.11 | 0.29 |
| Robin Lod | midfielder | 24 | 1507 | 4.46 | 4 | -0.46 | 0.27 |
| Anton Salétros | midfielder | 25 | 2074 | 1.53 | 1 | -0.53 | 0.07 |
| Andrew Gutman | defender | 22 | 1623 | 1.80 | 1 | -0.80 | 0.10 |
| Mbekezeli Mbokazi | defender | 17 | 1490 | 1.05 | 0 | -1.05 | 0.06 |
| Jack Elliott | defender | 27 | 2245 | 1.86 | 0 | -1.86 | 0.07 |
| Jonathan Bamba | attacker | 23 | 1480 | 5.60 | 3 | -2.60 | 0.34 |
| Philip Zinckernagel | attacker | 29 | 2311 | 10.52 | 6 | -4.52 | 0.41 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 30 | 49.9 | 64 | 38.1 | 23 | 46.5 | 67 | +20.5 |
| 2 | New England | 30 | 45.4 | 49 | 45 | 41 | 40.9 | 52 | +11.1 |
| 3 | Houston Dynamo | 30 | 33.9 | 41 | 43.6 | 39 | 36.7 | 47 | +10.3 |
| 4 | Inter Miami | 30 | 58.3 | 73 | 49.4 | 51 | 46.6 | 55 | +8.4 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 30 | 47.3 | 53 | 52.7 | 45 | 39.7 | 47 | +7.3 |
| 6 | Dallas | 30 | 46.4 | 55 | 41.9 | 47 | 44.7 | 51 | +6.3 |
| 7 | Orlando City | 30 | 47.6 | 58 | 59.5 | 70 | 36.3 | 41 | +4.7 |
| 8 | Austin | 30 | 30.3 | 38 | 61.7 | 56 | 26.3 | 31 | +4.7 |
| 9 | St. Louis City | 30 | 47.1 | 56 | 38.2 | 41 | 46.9 | 51 | +4.1 |
| 10 | Chicago Fire | 30 | 54.6 | 52 | 44 | 44 | 46.7 | 48 | +1.3 |
| 11 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | 47.2 | 48 | 43.1 | 33 | 44.8 | 46 | +1.2 |
| 12 | Toronto | 30 | 37.3 | 46 | 47.7 | 55 | 34.8 | 36 | +1.2 |
| 13 | LA Galaxy | 31 | 46.2 | 43 | 52.3 | 52 | 39.3 | 40 | +0.7 |
| 14 | Seattle Sounders | 30 | 44 | 39 | 44.3 | 37 | 41.4 | 42 | +0.6 |
| 15 | SJ Earthquakes | 30 | 54.2 | 52 | 41 | 42 | 47.6 | 48 | +0.4 |
| 16 | New York RB | 30 | 49.4 | 39 | 56.5 | 56 | 37.8 | 36 | -1.8 |
| 17 | Cincinnati | 28 | 51.3 | 60 | 52.5 | 68 | 38.5 | 36 | -2.5 |
| 18 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 62.9 | 63 | 32.2 | 31 | 57.7 | 55 | -2.7 |
| 19 | Real Salt Lake | 30 | 41.9 | 45 | 44.7 | 48 | 39.1 | 36 | -3.1 |
| 20 | DC United | 29 | 44.4 | 37 | 51.6 | 51 | 36.1 | 33 | -3.1 |
| 21 | Philadelphia Union | 30 | 60.6 | 61 | 41.8 | 48 | 51.4 | 46 | -5.4 |
| 22 | Portland Timbers | 30 | 43.8 | 51 | 48.3 | 56 | 39.8 | 34 | -5.8 |
| 23 | Colorado Rapids | 30 | 45.5 | 41 | 35 | 41 | 45.5 | 39 | -6.5 |
| 24 | Sporting KC | 30 | 35.1 | 36 | 60.9 | 75 | 29 | 22 | -7 |
| 25 | New York City | 30 | 43.3 | 43 | 43.2 | 41 | 41.8 | 34 | -7.8 |
| 26 | San Diego | 30 | 48.9 | 53 | 49.1 | 56 | 43.7 | 34 | -9.7 |
| 27 | Atlanta United | 30 | 44.3 | 37 | 46.6 | 51 | 40.2 | 30 | -10.2 |
| 28 | Minnesota United | 30 | 52.1 | 47 | 49.3 | 55 | 44.3 | 34 | -10.3 |
| 29 | Columbus Crew | 29 | 44.1 | 44 | 35.7 | 47 | 43.1 | 32 | -11.1 |
| 30 | CF Montréal | 30 | 42.4 | 36 | 50.1 | 60 | 38 | 25 | -13 |