No, Ajax have taken 32 points over their last 20 Eredivisie games, within 1.09 of the 33.09 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Ajax create 2.01 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Eredivisie games, 40.21 in all, and have scored 43 goals from those chances, 2.79 more than that xG would expect.
Ajax allow 1.44 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Eredivisie games, 28.83 in all, and have conceded 23 goals from those chances, 5.83 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Oscar Gloukh has the most expected goals (xG) for Ajax over their last 20 Eredivisie games, 4.43 xG in 16 appearances, and has scored 2 goals; Kasper Dolberg is next with 4.13 xG.
Ajax's results and their chances agree, within 1.1 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 40.21 | 43 | +2.79 | 28.83 | 23 | +5.83 | 33.09 | 32 | -1.09 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 25.78 | 27 | +1.22 | 13.69 | 12 | +1.69 | 20.06 | 19 | -1.06 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 15.46 | 18 | +2.54 | 5.93 | 7 | -1.07 | 11.40 | 11 | -0.40 |
| Home | 10 | 20.95 | 20 | -0.95 | 14.30 | 16 | -1.70 | 17.09 | 11 | -6.09 |
| Away | 10 | 19.26 | 23 | +3.74 | 14.53 | 7 | +7.53 | 16.00 | 21 | +5.00 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Eredivisie | FC Groningen (A) | 2-5 | 3.21 | 2.25 | 1.87 | 3 | W |
| 10 Oct | Eredivisie | NEC Nijmegen (H) | 1-1 | 1.59 | 1.17 | 1.65 | 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | Eredivisie | Excelsior (H) | 2-2 | 3.53 | 0.59 | 2.73 | 1 | W |
| 15 Sep | Eredivisie | Willem II (H) | 5-1 | 3.31 | 1.23 | 2.42 | 3 | W |
| 12 Sep | Eredivisie | Fortuna (A) | 1-5 | 3.82 | 0.69 | 2.73 | 3 | W |
| 5 Sep | Eredivisie | PSV (H) | 1-3 | 1.97 | 2.41 | 1.16 | 0 | L |
| 30 Aug | Eredivisie | Telstar (A) | 0-4 | 2.17 | 0.82 | 2.24 | 3 | W |
| 16 Aug | Eredivisie | Heerenveen (H) | 2-2 | 2.32 | 1.61 | 1.81 | 1 | W |
| 9 Aug | Eredivisie | PEC Zwolle (A) | 0-2 | 2.09 | 0.51 | 2.41 | 3 | W |
| 17 May | Eredivisie | Heerenveen (A) | 0-0 | 1.77 | 2.41 | 1.04 | 1 | L |
| 10 May | Eredivisie | FC Utrecht (H) | 1-2 | 1.27 | 1.73 | 1.08 | 0 | L |
| 2 May | Eredivisie | PSV (H) | 2-2 | 1.13 | 1.81 | 0.94 | 1 | L |
| 25 Apr | Eredivisie | NAC Breda (A) | 0-2 | 1.70 | 1.92 | 1.26 | 3 | L |
| 11 Apr | Eredivisie | Heracles Almelo (A) | 0-3 | 1.52 | 0.85 | 1.85 | 3 | W |
| 4 Apr | Eredivisie | FC Twente (H) | 1-2 | 1.30 | 2.08 | 0.92 | 0 | L |
| 22 Mar | Eredivisie | Feyenoord (A) | 1-1 | 0.22 | 1.74 | 0.32 | 1 | L |
| 14 Mar | Eredivisie | Sparta (H) | 4-0 | 2.82 | 0.45 | 2.68 | 3 | W |
| 7 Mar | Eredivisie | FC Groningen (A) | 3-1 | 2.11 | 1.96 | 1.48 | 0 | W |
| 1 Mar | Eredivisie | PEC Zwolle (A) | 0-0 | 0.65 | 1.38 | 0.80 | 1 | L |
| 21 Feb | Eredivisie | NEC Nijmegen (H) | 1-1 | 1.71 | 1.22 | 1.70 | 1 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Brandt | midfielder | 9 | 605 | 1.80 | 6 | +4.20 | 0.27 |
| Mika Godts | attacker | 12 | 1003 | 3.32 | 5 | +1.68 | 0.30 |
| Davy Klaassen | midfielder | 15 | 951 | 3.92 | 5 | +1.08 | 0.37 |
| Tolu Arokodare | attacker | 8 | 362 | 3.19 | 4 | +0.81 | 0.79 |
| Jorthy Mokio | midfielder | 19 | 1415 | 2.30 | 3 | +0.70 | 0.15 |
| Viktor Tsygankov | attacker | 5 | 205 | 0.39 | 1 | +0.61 | 0.17 |
| Steven Berghuis | attacker | 17 | 1086 | 3.45 | 4 | +0.55 | 0.29 |
| Thilo Kehrer | defender | 5 | 353 | 0.57 | 1 | +0.43 | 0.15 |
| Youri Baas | defender | 19 | 1644 | 0.66 | 1 | +0.34 | 0.04 |
| A. Bouwman | defender | 7 | 464 | 0.66 | 1 | +0.34 | 0.13 |
| Anton Gaaei | defender | 12 | 1010 | 0.71 | 1 | +0.29 | 0.06 |
| S. Steur | midfielder | 10 | 572 | 0.73 | 1 | +0.27 | 0.12 |
| Marcos Leonardo | attacker | 6 | 192 | 1.16 | 1 | -0.16 | 0.55 |
| Abdellah Ouazane | midfielder | 9 | 317 | 1.38 | 1 | -0.38 | 0.39 |
| Wout Weghorst | attacker | 9 | 621 | 2.42 | 2 | -0.42 | 0.35 |
| Rayane Bounida | midfielder | 10 | 282 | 0.52 | 0 | -0.52 | 0.16 |
| D. Konadu | attacker | 4 | 98 | 0.73 | 0 | -0.73 | 0.67 |
| Lucas Rosa | defender | 15 | 1333 | 0.76 | 0 | -0.76 | 0.05 |
| Youri Regeer | midfielder | 9 | 580 | 1.16 | 0 | -1.16 | 0.18 |
| Kasper Dolberg | attacker | 15 | 635 | 4.13 | 2 | -2.13 | 0.58 |
| Oscar Gloukh | midfielder | 16 | 943 | 4.43 | 2 | -2.43 | 0.42 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 8 | 16 | 21.7 | 17 | 6.6 | 15 | +8.4 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 9 | 25.3 | 31 | 9.1 | 10 | 20.5 | 23 | +2.5 |
| 3 | FC Groningen | 9 | 15.2 | 22 | 18.2 | 19 | 11.6 | 14 | +2.4 |
| 4 | AZ | 9 | 21.7 | 20 | 9.7 | 10 | 18.2 | 20 | +1.8 |
| 5 | PSV | 9 | 22.2 | 27 | 11.1 | 12 | 18.3 | 19 | +0.7 |
| 6 | FC Utrecht | 9 | 12.5 | 16 | 17.3 | 26 | 10.5 | 11 | +0.5 |
| 7 | SC Heerenveen | 9 | 13.6 | 15 | 14.3 | 11 | 12.1 | 12 | -0.1 |
| 8 | Excelsior | 9 | 13.1 | 16 | 16.1 | 18 | 11.3 | 11 | -0.3 |
| 9 | PEC Zwolle | 9 | 10.6 | 10 | 20.1 | 22 | 7.8 | 7 | -0.8 |
| 10 | Ajax | 9 | 24 | 27 | 11.3 | 12 | 19 | 18 | -1 |
| 11 | SC Cambuur | 9 | 12.6 | 13 | 16.3 | 21 | 10.1 | 9 | -1.1 |
| 12 | Go Ahead Eagles | 9 | 16.6 | 20 | 16.8 | 21 | 12.6 | 11 | -1.6 |
| 13 | ADO Den Haag | 9 | 8.4 | 11 | 17.4 | 20 | 8 | 6 | -2 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 16.9 | 16 | 19.2 | 22 | 11.5 | 9 | -2.5 |
| 15 | Telstar | 9 | 12.6 | 10 | 20.6 | 18 | 8.5 | 6 | -2.5 |
| 16 | FC Twente | 9 | 20.6 | 17 | 7.7 | 10 | 19.7 | 17 | -2.7 |
| 17 | NEC Nijmegen | 9 | 16.7 | 15 | 15.6 | 16 | 12.9 | 10 | -2.9 |
| 18 | Willem II | 9 | 12.1 | 9 | 20.4 | 26 | 8.1 | 2 | -6.1 |