No, AGF have taken 8 points over 10 Superliga games in 2026/2027, 6.68 fewer than the 14.68 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
AGF create 1.64 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 Superliga games in 2026/2027, 16.41 in all, and have scored 14 goals from those chances, 2.41 fewer than that xG would expect.
AGF allow 1.58 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 Superliga games in 2026/2027, 15.78 in all, and have conceded 17 goals from those chances, 1.22 more than that xGA would expect.
Janni Serra has the most expected goals (xG) for AGF over 10 Superliga games in 2026/2027, 3.23 xG in 8 appearances, and has scored 4 goals; Kristian Arnstad is next with 2.59 xG.
AGF have taken 6.7 points fewer than their chances warranted over 10 games: -2.4 goals against their xG, and -1.2 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 10 | 16.41 | 14 | -2.41 | 15.78 | 17 | -1.22 | 14.68 | 8 | -6.68 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 7.39 | 7 | -0.39 | 8.38 | 8 | +0.38 | 6.33 | 5 | -1.33 |
| Home | 5 | 8.94 | 8 | -0.94 | 6.38 | 7 | -0.62 | 8.54 | 6 | -2.54 |
| Away | 5 | 7.47 | 6 | -1.47 | 9.40 | 10 | -0.60 | 6.14 | 2 | -4.14 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct | Superliga | Sønderjyske (H) | 3-0 | 1.34 | 1.40 | 1.33 | 3 | L |
| 20 Sep | Superliga | Horsens (A) | 2-2 | 1.17 | 1.42 | 1.19 | 1 | L |
| 13 Sep | Superliga | Nordsjælland (A) | 2-0 | 1.43 | 2.44 | 0.83 | 0 | L |
| 5 Sep | Superliga | Silkeborg (H) | 2-2 | 1.97 | 1.39 | 1.75 | 1 | W |
| 2 Sep | Superliga | Midtjylland (H) | 0-2 | 1.48 | 1.73 | 1.23 | 0 | L |
| 30 Aug | Superliga | Randers FC (A) | 2-1 | 1.68 | 0.93 | 1.89 | 0 | W |
| 23 Aug | Superliga | Odense BK (H) | 2-2 | 2.15 | 1.00 | 2.10 | 1 | W |
| 14 Aug | Superliga | Viborg FF (A) | 2-1 | 1.81 | 1.26 | 1.74 | 0 | W |
| 1 Aug | Superliga | Lyngby (A) | 2-2 | 1.38 | 3.35 | 0.49 | 1 | L |
| 25 Jul | Superliga | Brøndby IF (H) | 1-1 | 2.00 | 0.86 | 2.13 | 1 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederik Tingager | defender | 4 | 198 | 0.17 | 1 | +0.83 | 0.08 |
| Janni Serra | attacker | 8 | 412 | 3.23 | 4 | +0.77 | 0.71 |
| Magnus Knudsen | midfielder | 10 | 751 | 0.35 | 1 | +0.65 | 0.04 |
| Callum McCowatt | midfielder | 4 | 154 | 0.36 | 1 | +0.64 | 0.21 |
| Kristian Arnstad | attacker | 10 | 836 | 2.59 | 3 | +0.41 | 0.28 |
| Rasmus Carstensen | midfielder | 9 | 442 | 1.29 | 1 | -0.29 | 0.26 |
| Frederik Emmery | attacker | 10 | 751 | 1.30 | 1 | -0.30 | 0.16 |
| Gift Links | midfielder | 3 | 268 | 0.59 | 0 | -0.59 | 0.20 |
| Tobias Bech | attacker | 10 | 617 | 0.81 | 0 | -0.81 | 0.12 |
| James Bogere | attacker | 9 | 361 | 1.90 | 1 | -0.90 | 0.47 |
| Sebastian Jørgensen | attacker | 8 | 549 | 1.11 | 0 | -1.11 | 0.18 |
| Mikael Anderson | midfielder | 8 | 565 | 1.28 | 0 | -1.28 | 0.20 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC København | 10 | 15.7 | 24 | 11.3 | 10 | 16.5 | 24 | +7.5 |
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | 10 | 14.1 | 19 | 13.2 | 10 | 14.5 | 22 | +7.5 |
| 3 | Viborg FF | 10 | 17.5 | 17 | 13.5 | 8 | 16.5 | 20 | +3.5 |
| 4 | Horsens | 11 | 13.4 | 18 | 20.9 | 19 | 10.9 | 13 | +2.1 |
| 5 | Brøndby IF | 11 | 17.6 | 18 | 15 | 19 | 16.7 | 16 | -0.7 |
| 6 | Silkeborg IF | 11 | 12.2 | 15 | 17.7 | 19 | 11.8 | 11 | -0.8 |
| 7 | Odense BK | 11 | 17.9 | 10 | 19.7 | 15 | 14.5 | 13 | -1.5 |
| 8 | Randers FC | 11 | 12.9 | 11 | 17.1 | 16 | 12.5 | 11 | -1.5 |
| 9 | Nordsjælland | 11 | 24.4 | 17 | 15.3 | 13 | 20.6 | 19 | -1.6 |
| 10 | Sønderjyske Fodbold | 11 | 12.4 | 16 | 17.7 | 24 | 12.2 | 8 | -4.2 |
| 11 | AGF | 10 | 16.4 | 14 | 15.8 | 17 | 14.7 | 8 | -6.7 |
| 12 | Lyngby Boldklub | 11 | 19.8 | 15 | 17 | 24 | 16.2 | 8 | -8.2 |