Twelve players have scored three or more Premier League goals after five games, which makes this the most congested Golden Boot chart in years at this stage. The list below is the leaderboard. The two after it are the ones that matter, because they say which of these names is likely to still be there in May.
Erling Haaland leads on five. What separates him from the chasing pack is not the goals, it is how he got them: 4.42 expected goals from a division-high 20 shots, none of them penalties. He is scoring roughly what his chances are worth, and he is getting more chances than anybody.
After 5 games, league only
| # | Player | Team | Goals | xG | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erling Haaland | Manchester City | 5 | 4.42 | 20 |
| 2 | Alexander Isak | Liverpool | 4 | 3.54 | 15 |
| 3 | Bukayo Saka | Arsenal | 3 | 3.22 | 15 |
| 4 | Dominic Calvert-Lewin | Leeds United | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Brian Brobbey | Sunderland | 3 | 2.94 | 11 |
| 6 | Bruno Fernandes | Manchester United | 3 | 2.56 | 19 |
| 7 | João Pedro | Chelsea | 3 | 2.17 | 11 |
| 8 | Pascal Groß | Brighton & Hove Albion | 3 | 1.77 | 10 |
| 9 | Morgan Rogers | Chelsea | 3 | 1.72 | 15 |
| 10 | Marcus Tavernier | AFC Bournemouth | 3 | 1.7 | 13 |
| 11 | Kevin Schade | Brentford | 3 | 1.52 | 13 |
| 12 | Rayan Cherki | Manchester City | 3 | 0.72 | 9 |
The chart splits in two. Erling Haaland (5 goals from 4.42 xG), Dominic Calvert-Lewin (3 from 3.00) and Bukayo Saka (3 from 3.22) are scoring about what their chances have been worth. A second group is well ahead of theirs.
Goals minus expected goals
| Player | Team | Goals | xG | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayan Cherki | Manchester City | 3 | 0.72 | +2.28 |
| Antoine Semenyo | Manchester City | 2 | 0.33 | +1.67 |
| Anthony Elanga | Newcastle United | 2 | 0.42 | +1.58 |
| Kevin Schade | Brentford | 3 | 1.52 | +1.48 |
| Vitaly Janelt | Brentford | 2 | 0.53 | +1.47 |
Rayan Cherki has three goals from 0.72 expected, in 306 minutes. That is the largest gap in the division and the least likely to survive contact with a longer season - it does not mean he is a bad finisher, it means three of his shots have gone in and the model thought they were worth about a quarter of a goal each.
The reverse list is the more useful one for anyone looking forward rather than back.
Expected goals minus goals
| Player | Team | Goals | xG | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Thiago | Brentford | 1 | 3.13 | -2.13 |
| Thierno Barry | Everton | 2 | 3.5 | -1.50 |
| Yoane Wissa | Newcastle United | 1 | 2.35 | -1.35 |
| Gonzalo GarcÃa | Fulham | 1 | 2.33 | -1.33 |
| Julio Enciso | Ipswich Town | 0 | 1.26 | -1.26 |
Igor Thiago has one goal from 3.13 expected goals and thirteen shots. Thierno Barry has two from 3.50 off seventeen. Both are getting into the positions; neither has been rewarded yet.
The practical use of this page is not the leaderboard, it is the gap between the two tables.
We have measured the asymmetry directly. Across 1,245 fixtures, sides whose results were running more than half a goal a game ahead of their chances went on to win 3.2 percentage points less often than the model rated them. Sides running behind beat their rating by only 0.8, which is close enough to nothing to ignore. The same logic applies to a striker: fading the over-performers has been the tradeable half, not backing the under-performers to bounce.
So the reading is that the anytime-scorer prices on Rayan Cherki and Kevin Schade are the ones carrying the most hidden risk, not that Igor Thiago is about to score four in a week. For the full season leaderboards - goals, assists, shots and shots on target, updated as each round settles - see our Premier League player leaders, and the team-level version in the season so far piece.
Who is the Premier League top scorer in 2026/27? Erling Haaland of Manchester City with five goals after five games, from 4.42 expected goals and a division-high 20 shots, none of them penalties.
Who is favourite for the Golden Boot? Haaland leads on five, with Alexander Isak of Liverpool on four and twelve players on three or more. Haaland's case is the strongest on the underlying numbers because he combines the most shots in the division with a goal tally close to what his chances have been worth.
Which Premier League strikers are over-performing their xG? Rayan Cherki has three goals from 0.72 expected, the biggest gap in the division, followed by Antoine Semenyo (+1.67), Anthony Elanga (+1.58) and Kevin Schade (+1.48).
Which strikers are due a goal? Igor Thiago of Brentford has one goal from 3.13 expected goals, and Thierno Barry of Everton two from 3.50. Both are creating the chances without the return so far - though our own testing suggests fading the over-performers is more reliable than backing the under-performers to bounce.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Goal and expected-goals data from our own import, updated as each round settles.