At the time of writing, Statz tips are in profit on stake in four sports: football, cricket, golf and the NFL. The Statz football tips record is the biggest of them, at 658 settled tips, with a 33.12% strike rate and a +6.93% return on stake.
Roughly two in three of those tips lost, and the record is still in profit. The two numbers fit together once you see what each one measures, and that is the test to use when you judge any football tipster.
A 33.12% strike rate means about one tip in three won and two in three lost. Judged by win rate alone, that looks like a tipster to avoid. The same 658 settled tips are +6.93% on stake, which is a profit.
That gap is what this piece is about. How often a tipster wins says very little about whether they make money, and the figure that does is return on stake. Below, the 33.12% and the +6.93% are taken apart, a 1pt stake is explained, football is set against the other sports on the record and there's a checklist for how to judge a football tipster before you trust the record.
Strike rate is the share of graded tips that won. It gives each winning tip the same weight, whatever it paid and however much was staked on it, and it does the same for each losing tip. Two tipsters can both win 33.12% of the time and finish in opposite places, because the strike rate never asks what the winners paid or what the losers cost.
A tip that wins returns its stake plus a profit. A tip that loses costs the stake. A record can lose more often than it wins and still finish ahead when the winners make up for the losers, and whether that happens is a question about money, which strike rate doesn't measure.
Return on stake takes the profit and sets it against what was actually staked across the record. The Statz tips page names it as the number that matters, and it's the one to ask any tipster for.
On the football record it's +6.93%, which is 6.93 points of profit for every 100 points staked. The profit itself is 37.36 points, and the sport table below rounds the return to +6.9%.
Void bets are left out of the arithmetic. They're excluded from both the staked and profit columns, so the 33.12% strike rate runs over graded bets only.
Return on stake looks backwards. Its forward-looking relative is expected value, which has its own expected value explainer. Past results do not predict future ones, so the +6.93% describes what has happened so far.
Here is how Statz stakes in points: stakes are in points rather than pounds, so the record works at any bankroll. 1pt is whatever the reader chooses it to be, and +6.93% reads the same whether a point is a small amount or a large one.
The size of the stake carries the conviction. A 1pt tip is one Statz likes more than a 0.25pt tip, so the stake says how strongly the tip is backed.
That's why return on stake is a fairer test than counting tips. A strike rate gives a 0.25pt tip the same weight as a 1pt tip. Return on stake weights each result by what was staked on it, which is how a real bankroll would feel the result. A tipster whose big stakes lose and small stakes win can post a respectable strike rate on a losing record, and only the return on stake shows it.
The tips page also covers cricket, golf, the NFL and the NBA. Here is the football line next to them, with the strike rate beside the return.
From the Statz tips pages at the time of writing. ROI is return on stake
Football has the largest settled sample bar cricket's 726: 658 tips, against 210 for the NFL and 78 for golf. Golf's +25.6% is the highest return on the table, but it rests on only 78 settled tips, fewer than an eighth of football's 658. The NBA row is blank in the table, and the NBA is the exception to the four profitable sports: its own record page shows 59 settled tips at -15.3% on stake.
The strike rates are the useful part. Golf has the lowest strike rate on the table, 20.5%, and the highest return. The NFL has the highest strike rate, 57.6%, and a return of less than half of golf's. Football's 33.1% sits between them. The table doesn't rank the sports, because the samples are too different in size for that.
The full settled record is free to read, and the page says it carries the price, the stake and the profit or loss on each tip. The football track record page lists the settled tips. The other sports each have a tips page of their own: cricket, golf, the NFL and the NBA.
Strike rate and return on stake only mean something if the record behind them is complete. These are the checks, with what the Statz tips page says it does on each one.
A record that only shows the winners tells you nothing. Statz says every settled tip stays published and the running profit and loss is on the page. With a 33.12% strike rate, most of the tips on it are losers. A record in which hardly any tips lose is worth questioning.
Two things matter here: when a tip appears and who grades it. Look for tips published before kick-off with the publication time stored. Statz says its tips go up on the day of the games, always before kick-off. Nothing is added to a match that has already started, and the publication time is stored against every tip.
Settlement is automatic, from the same match data behind Statz projections, within a few hours of full time. No tip is graded by hand. Tips withdrawn before kick-off are disclosed rather than deleted.
A void is a leg that doesn't run, such as a player who doesn't play. Statz settles it as a bookmaker would: the stake on that leg comes back, and a multiple re-prices on the legs that did run, so a void is never counted as a loss. Statz's Acca Builder and Same Game Parlay builder build multiples of this kind. Voids are excluded from the staked and profit columns, which is why the strike rate covers graded bets only.
What the Statz tips page says it does on each point
| Check | What Statz does |
|---|---|
| Losing tips stay on the record | Every settled tip stays published |
| Withdrawn tips are disclosed | Tips withdrawn before kick-off are disclosed rather than deleted |
| Published before kick-off | On the day of the games; publication time stored against every tip |
| Settled automatically | From Statz match data within a few hours of full time; none graded by hand |
| Voids are not losses | Stake comes back; voids sit outside the staked and profit columns |
Statz tracks two separate profit and loss records. Match markets covers the full-time result, both teams to score and over or under goals. Player props covers shots, shots on target, fouls committed, fouls drawn, tackles and cards.
Each market has pages of its own on Statz. The match projections cover the result, and there are guides to both teams to score and betting on goals. On the player side there are the player prop projections, the Player Props board, pages on player shots on target and fouls, the Card Risk page for yellow cards and the player streaks board. The Form Edges page lines recent player-prop form up against bookmaker lines.
Statz's own view, on the tips page, is that the player-prop markets are where the model has the most to say and the bookmaker prices move least. That's a claim about its method, and the record is the way to test it. Because the two books are tracked separately, the combined +6.93% is worth splitting by book on the football record page.
Statz also writes about these markets in the news section, including the Premier League fouls bet builder, the Referee Watch column and the guide to which referees give the most yellow cards.
Whatever you make of the numbers, check them on the page itself: see today's football tips and the settled profit and loss record.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Past results do not predict future ones. Prices change; check the live price.