Updated 5 November 2026.
Bristol Rovers welcome Cambridge United to the Memorial Stadium on Friday 6 November, with kick-off at 7:30pm UK, in the 1st Round of the FA Cup. It's a tie between two sides who both come in on poor league runs: Rovers have lost four of their last five in League Two, while Cambridge have won only one of their last five in League One.
The FA Cup has no league table, so recent form and our projection are what we have to go on. We make Cambridge the slightly likelier winner at 39%, with a 1-1 draw the single likeliest score.
Rovers lost 3-1 at Fleetwood on 31 October, which followed a 0-0 draw with Swindon at home. Before that came a 1-2 home defeat to Salford, a 1-0 loss at Shrewsbury and a 1-3 home defeat to Barnet. In those five league games they have scored three goals and conceded nine. In their last ten games they have won two, drawn one and lost seven, and neither win came in the last six.
Cambridge have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten. They have scored seven and conceded ten in their last five league games. They lost 3-0 at Orient last time out, and before that drew 1-1 at Sheffield Wednesday. Before those came a 2-3 home defeat to Plymouth and a 2-2 home draw with Wycombe. A 2-1 win at Barnsley on 17 October is their only win in the last five.
Cambridge play a division higher. We project them for 1.39 goals against 1.29 for Rovers, with 3.70 shots on target to Rovers' 3.44 and 5.63 corners to 4.42. We also project 11.50 fouls and 1.75 yellow cards for Rovers, and 10.38 fouls and 1.89 yellow cards for Cambridge.
Bristol Rovers possible starting lineup:
Young; James, Balmer, Kilgour, Sparkes; Smallwood, Kelly, Mola; Forde, Gough, Cavegn
Cambridge United possible starting lineup:
Eastwood; Heffernan, Watts, Bennett, Perry; Mpanzu, Hoddle; Kaikai, Bradshaw, Knight; Stead
Keenan Gough is predicted to lead the line for Rovers, who have scored one goal or fewer in each of their last five league games.
Shaqai Forde and Fabrizio Cavegn are predicted to play either side of him.
For Cambridge, Ben Knight and Sullay Kaikai are predicted to play behind Callum Stead, with Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu in midfield. Cambridge have conceded in each of their last five games.
We make Cambridge United the more likely winners at 39%, with Rovers on 34% and the draw on 27%. Cambridge are 2.15 at midnite, Rovers 3.10 at bet365 and the draw 3.75 at midnite.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol Rovers to win | 3.10 (bet365) | 34% |
| Draw | 3.75 (midnite) | 27% |
| Cambridge United to win | 2.15 (midnite) | 39% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 (bet365) | 55% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 (midnite) | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 (bet365) | 50% |
We predict a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single scoreline at 13%, though we make Cambridge slightly more likely to win over 90 minutes. A 0-1 Cambridge win is next at 9%, then 1-2 at 9%. Both teams to score is 55% and over 2.5 goals 50%. We give Rovers a 25% chance of a clean sheet and Cambridge 28%.
Prediction: Bristol Rovers 1-1 Cambridge United
Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United kicks off at 7:30pm UK on Friday 6 November 2026 at the Memorial Stadium. It is a 2026/27 FA Cup 1st Round tie between League Two Rovers and League One Cambridge, and the winner goes through to the second round.
Our prediction for Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United in the 2026/27 FA Cup 1st Round is a 1-1 draw, which we give a 13% chance as the likeliest single scoreline. We make Cambridge slightly more likely to win in 90 minutes.
Cambridge United are the favourites for the 2026/27 FA Cup 1st Round tie, priced at 2.15 with midnite, and our model gives them a 39% chance of winning in 90 minutes against 34% for Bristol Rovers and 27% for the draw.
Both teams to score in Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United has a 55% chance in our model, with bet365 offering 1.53. Cambridge have conceded in each of their last 5 league games, and Rovers have scored one goal or fewer in each of theirs.
Our model expects 2.68 goals in Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United in the 2026/27 FA Cup 1st Round, split 1.29 for Rovers and 1.39 for Cambridge. Over 2.5 goals comes out at 50%, with over 1.5 at 75%.
Bristol Rovers have lost 4 of their last 5 League Two games before the FA Cup 1st Round tie with Cambridge United, the latest a 3-1 defeat at Fleetwood on 31 October, with a 0-0 home draw with Swindon the only point.
For the 2026/27 FA Cup 1st Round, Bristol Rovers are predicted to start Young; James, Balmer, Kilgour, Sparkes; Smallwood, Kelly, Mola; Forde, Gough, Cavegn. Cambridge are predicted to start Eastwood; Heffernan, Watts, Bennett, Perry; Mpanzu, Hoddle; Kaikai, Bradshaw, Knight; Stead.