Updated 14 November 2026.
It is the same two sides for the second time in four days. Somalia and Ghana meet at the Accra Sports Stadium on Monday 16 November, kick-off 3pm UK, in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications, and the first game ended Ghana 2-0 Somalia on 12 November. Somalia have lost all three of their group games and are yet to take a point, while Ghana sit 3rd on 3 points. Our model makes Ghana the clear favourites again.
Somalia are 4th in the group with 0 points from 3 games, having scored 1 goal and conceded 6. The defeat to Ghana came after a 0-2 home loss to Ivory Coast and a 2-1 defeat at Gambia. Before that, they held Mauritius to a 0-0 draw away in March, having drawn the home leg 0-0 too. They have scored 1 goal in their last five games, an average of 0.2 a game, and kept a clean sheet in 2 of those five. Across their last ten games in all competitions they have won one, drawn two and lost seven.
Ghana have 1 win and 2 defeats and a goal difference of -2, with 4 scored and 6 conceded, which leaves them 3rd in the group table. Their win was the 2-0 over Somalia, which followed a 2-4 home loss to Gambia and a 2-0 defeat in Ivory Coast. They average 4.67 shots on target and 6.67 corners a game, and they concede 2 goals a game. Before the qualifiers they lost 1-0 to Colombia on 4 July and 2-1 to Croatia on 27 June at the World Cup, and across their last ten games in all competitions they have won two, drawn two and lost six.
Somalia's shots on target are at 0.75 a game and they win 2.25 corners a game. We project Ghana for 13.52 shots, 5.21 of them on target, and 5.39 corners, against 4.6 shots and 3.25 corners for Somalia, with Somalia expected to make 18.17 tackles to Ghana's 13.06.
Somalia possible starting lineup:
Ibrahim Ahmed Hussein; Mubashir Nour, Abel Gigli, Ali Omar, Mohamed Omar; Faisal Othman, Abdi Sharif; Abdulsamed Abdullahi, Ali Musse, Bilal Habib; Sakariya Hassan
Ghana possible starting lineup:
Ati Zigi; Senaya, Luckassen, Oppong, Mensah; Owusu, Yirenkyi, Donkor; Boakye, Bonsu Baah, Adu
Sakariya Hassan has had a shot in three straight games, averaging 1 a game, and he has also made a tackle (2.3 a game) and committed a foul (4 a game) in three straight games.
Abel Gigli has made a tackle and committed a foul in three straight games, at 1.7 a game for both. Faisal Othman has also made a tackle in three straight games, averaging 1.3 a game.
For Ghana, left-back Gideon Mensah has committed a foul in three straight games, at 1.7 a game.
We back Ghana to win, and the bookmakers agree: the best price is 1.11 at midnite. Somalia are 21.00 at boylesports and the draw is 7.50 at midnite.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Somalia win | 21.00 | 3% |
| Draw | 7.50 | 10% |
| Ghana win | 1.11 | 87% |
| Both teams to score | 3.00 | 23% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 56% |
We predict a 2-0 Ghana win. We project Ghana at 2.65 goals and Somalia at 0.29, and 0-2 is the single likeliest scoreline at 19%, with 0-3 next at 16%. We give Ghana a 75% chance of a clean sheet, and both teams scoring is rated at 23%.
Somalia vs Ghana in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications kicks off at 15:00 UK time on Monday 16 November 2026 at the Accra Sports Stadium. It is a Group Stage fixture, played four days after the first meeting.
We predict Ghana to beat Somalia 2-0 in this Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications Group Stage match, with 0-2 the likeliest single scoreline at 19%. Our model gives Ghana an 87% chance of winning, Somalia 3% and the draw 10%.
Ghana are strong favourites at 1.11 with midnite to win this 2026 Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications match, and our model agrees with an 87% chance. Somalia are 21.00 at boylesports, and the draw is 7.50.
We rate both teams to score at 23% in Somalia vs Ghana, with the best price 3.00 at midnite. We give Ghana a 75% chance of a clean sheet, and over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance in this qualifier.
Ghana are 3rd with 3 points from 3 games in the 2026 Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications, while Somalia are 4th with 0 points from 3. Somalia have scored 1 goal and conceded 6, and Ghana have scored 4 and conceded 6.
Sakariya Hassan has had at least 1 shot in 3 straight games for Somalia in the 2026 Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications, averaging 1 a game. He has also made a tackle in 3 straight games, at 2.3 a game.
Somalia's predicted XI for the 2026 Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications match is led by goalkeeper Ibrahim Ahmed Hussein, with Abel Gigli and Sakariya Hassan in it. Ghana's includes Lawrence Ati Zigi in goal, Gideon Mensah, Elisha Owusu and Prince Adu.