Updated 14 November 2026.
Sudan host Senegal at Juba Stadium on Monday 16 November, kick-off 13:00 UK. Senegal won 4-1 in the first meeting of the pair on 12 November, and the two sides are straight back at it in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications. Senegal top the group, Sudan sit 4th, and our model expects Senegal to win again.
Senegal are 1st in the qualifying table on 7 points from three games, with two wins and a draw, six goals scored and two conceded. They opened with a 1-1 draw away to Mozambique, then won 1-0 at Ethiopia, and the 4-1 against Sudan on 12 November followed. They concede 0.67 goals a game, while up front they average 2 goals a game. Before the qualifiers they lost 3-2 to Belgium at the World Cup on 1 July, after a 5-0 win over Iraq on 26 June.
Their shots on target come at 5 a game, and they win 6.33 corners a game. They also pick up bookings, at 2.67 cards a game.
Sudan are 4th with 3 points from three, one win and two defeats, and a goal difference of 3 scored against 8 conceded. The win was a 1-0 over Ethiopia. Then came a 4-1 defeat at Mozambique and the 4-1 loss to Senegal, so they have shipped eight goals in their last two. They concede 2.67 goals a game and manage only 2 shots on target a game.
Before the qualifiers Sudan drew two friendlies without scoring, 0-0 at Lebanon and 0-0 away to Qatar. Two-thirds of their games in the qualifiers have gone over 2.5 goals and two-thirds have seen both sides score. Sudan have scored one goal or none in each of their last five games.
Nicolas Jackson has had a shot in three straight games for Senegal, averaging 3 a game. He has put a shot on target in all three as well, at 1.3 a game.
In midfield, Lamine Camara has made a tackle in three straight games and averages 4.3 a game. El Hadji Malick Diouf has done the same from left-back at 4 a game.
Sadibou Sané has made a tackle and committed a foul in each of three straight games, averaging 2 tackles and 1 foul a game from centre-back.
We back Senegal to win at 1.29 with Midnite, and the model gives them a 78% chance, with Sudan at 6% and the draw at 16%. Both sides scored in the 4-1 on 12 November, but our model puts both teams scoring at 29% here.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Sudan to win | 11.00 (Midnite) | 6% |
| Draw | 4.80 (Midnite) | 16% |
| Senegal to win | 1.29 (Midnite) | 78% |
| Both teams to score | 2.63 (Midnite) | 29% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 (BoyleSports) | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 (BoyleSports) | 47% |
Our prediction is Sudan 0-2 Senegal, which carries an 18% chance as the single likeliest scoreline. A 0-1 is next at 17%, and a 0-3 follows at 13%. We project Senegal for 2.16 goals and Sudan for 0.4, and we give Senegal a 67% chance of a clean sheet.
Our projection has Senegal taking 13 shots in total, 5 on target, and Jackson has had a shot on target in three straight games. We also project Senegal for 5.94 corners to Sudan's 3.58.
Sudan vs Senegal in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications kicks off at 13:00 UK on Monday 16 November 2026 at Juba Stadium. It is a Group Stage fixture and comes four days after Senegal won 4-1 in the first meeting.
Our prediction for Sudan vs Senegal in the 2026 Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications is a 0-2 win for Senegal, which has an 18% chance. We give Senegal a 78% chance of winning, Sudan 6% and the draw 16%.
Senegal are the clear favourites for the 2026 Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications game at Juba Stadium, priced at 1.29 with Midnite. They lead the group on 7 points from 3 games, while Sudan are 4th on 3 points.
Our model gives both teams to score a 29% chance in Sudan vs Senegal in the 2026 Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications, with Midnite offering 2.63. Sudan are projected for 0.4 goals and Senegal for 2.16.
We give over 2.5 goals a 47% chance in Sudan vs Senegal in the 2026 Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications, with BoyleSports at 2.00. Over 1.5 goals is 73%, and the three likeliest scorelines are all Senegal wins.
Nicolas Jackson has had a shot on target in 3 straight games for Senegal in the 2026 Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications, averaging 1.3 a game. He also averages 3 shots a game over that run.
Senegal are 1st in the 2026 Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications group on 7 points from 3 games, with 6 goals scored and 2 conceded. Sudan are 4th on 3 points from 3, with 3 scored and 8 conceded.