Updated 12 October 2026.
Atlético Madrid host Manchester United at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano on Tuesday 13 October, kick-off 8pm UK, and the two clubs come into the Champions League league stage from opposite ends of the early table. Atlético are 25th of 36 with no points. United are 4th with three, after a 4-0 win over Sabah on opening night.
Atlético lost 2-1 at Liverpool in that first game, but they have won four of five since and beat Real Madrid 2-1 in La Liga. United have drawn their last two Premier League games and lost to Brighton in the Carabao Cup in between.
Atlético Madrid were beaten 2-1 at Liverpool on matchday one and have won four of their five games since, the latest a 2-1 win at Alaves on Saturday. Before that came the 2-1 home win over Real Madrid, a 4-0 thrashing of Osasuna and a 3-0 win at Sociedad.
In the Champions League table Atlético sit on 0 points from one game, 25th of 36 on the standings. Their opener produced goals at both ends, and per game they rank the highest for both teams to score and for over 2.5 goals, though that is one match.
Manchester United are 4th with three points after the 4-0 win over Sabah, a result that gives them the 4th most goals and the fewest conceded in the competition so far, along with the highest clean-sheet rate. They have 10 shots on target from that game, the 3rd most.
Since then it has been harder. A 0-1 home defeat to Man City came first, then a 2-3 Carabao Cup loss to Brighton, then a 1-1 draw at Fulham and a 1-1 draw with Spurs on Saturday.
Atlético Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Llorente, Hancko, Romero, Pubill; Simeone, Koke, Barrios; Baena, Alvarez, David
Manchester United possible starting lineup:
Lammens; Dalot, Yoro, Martínez, Shaw; Mainoo, Tielemans; Mbeumo, Fernandes, Amad; Cunha
Jonathan David has had a shot on target in each of his last five games and is 1.57 at bet365 to get one here. Over those five he has gone 1, 1, 1, 3 and 2.
Amad Diallo has had at least one shot in all of his last five matches, 2, 2, 3, 1 and 2, and at least one shot is 1.30 at bet365.
Álex Baena has put a shot on target in four of his last five and is 1.62 at bet365 to do it again. In the other game he had none.
Pablo Barrios has made at least one tackle in each of his last five, 1, 3, 2, 1 and 1, and that is 1.20 at bet365.
Lisandro Martínez is the sort of defender our model likes for fouls: we rank a foul by him the 4th likeliest in the fixture, and it is 1.57 at bet365.
We make Atlético Madrid the slight favourites, and the best price on them is 1.91 at bet365. Manchester United are 3.70 at bet365 and the draw is 4.00 at Midnite.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid win | 1.91 (bet365) | 40% |
| Draw | 4.00 (Midnite) | 24% |
| Manchester United win | 3.70 (bet365) | 36% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 (bet365) | 65% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 (bet365) | 84% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 (bet365) | 63% |
Our projection has Atlético on 1.67 goals and United on 1.57, which makes this close to an even split. 1-1 is the likeliest score, so a draw is in play, though we make Atlético slightly more likely to win. Both teams score in 65% of our simulations, and we give Atlético a clean sheet 21% of the time and United 19%.
Statz prediction: Atlético Madrid 1-1 Manchester United.
Kick-off is at 8pm UK on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano.
We predict a 1-1 draw. We give Atlético a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Manchester United 36%.
Atlético Madrid are the bookmakers' favourites at 1.91 with bet365, and our model also leans slightly their way. Manchester United are 3.70 and the draw is 4.00.
We give both teams to score a 65% chance, and 1.44 is the best price at bet365. Over 2.5 goals is 1.50 at bet365, and we put it at 63%.
Manchester United are 4th of 36 with three points from one game. Atlético Madrid are 25th with none after a 2-1 defeat at Liverpool.
Jonathan David has had a shot on target in each of his last five games, and he is 1.57 at bet365 to get one in this fixture.
Atlético: Oblak; Llorente, Hancko, Romero, Pubill; Simeone, Koke, Barrios; Baena, Alvarez, David. Manchester United: Lammens; Dalot, Yoro, Martínez, Shaw; Mainoo, Tielemans; Mbeumo, Fernandes, Amad; Cunha.