TSG Hoffenheim host Hamburger SV at the PreZero Arena on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 14:30 UK, in a Bundesliga game between two clubs on 3 points from four matches. Hoffenheim have scored plenty and conceded plenty. Hamburg have barely scored at all, and that gap between the attacks is what this game turns on.
Hoffenheim are 14th, Hamburg 16th, and the model has the home side as clear favourites, with a goalscoring edge to match.
Hoffenheim have won 1 of 4 in the league and lost the other 3, scoring 7 and conceding 10. Every one of their league games has seen both teams score and more than 2.5 goals, which is the highest rate in the division on both counts. They lost 3-1 at Paderborn last time out, preceded by a 2-0 defeat at OFI in the Europa League. The one win in that spell was a 2-1 home victory over Stuttgart, and before it they lost 2-3 to Dortmund at home. They also take the 3rd most corners and commit the 2nd most fouls in the league.
Hamburg are 16th with 2 goals scored and 13 conceded in four games. Their 0.5 goals per game is the fewest in the league, and they register the 2nd fewest shots on target. The last two weeks have been a mixed bag: a 5-0 home loss to Mainz and a 5-0 defeat at RB Leipzig, then a 2-1 home win over Koln last time out. They sit at the very top for fouls per game at 14.25. Their opening league loss was 2-0 at Dortmund.
Both clubs are in the bottom five of the Bundesliga standings, so there is real weight on three points for each.
TSG Hoffenheim possible starting lineup:
Baumann; Coufal, Kabak, Rots, Machida; Burger, Avdullahu, Conté; Hlozek, Lemperle, Daghim
Hamburger SV possible starting lineup:
Heuer Fernandes; Capaldo, Torunarigha, Bornauw, Møller Wolfe; Sambi Lokonga, Remberg, El Ouahdi; Adeline, Poulsen
Adam Hlozek has had 2 or more shots in each of Hoffenheim's four league games, averaging 3.3 a match, the longest such run in the division. He is 1.14 at bet365 to do it again.
Ozan Kabak has committed a foul in four straight games, at 2.8 a game, and is 1.36 at midnite for another. Alongside him, VladimÃr Coufal has made a tackle in all four, and Leon Avdullahu has done the same at 1.8 a game, priced 1.20 at bet365.
For Hamburg, Nicolás Capaldo has made a tackle in four straight games at 3 a match, and has committed 2 or more fouls in each of his last three. That last run is 2.62 at Ladbrokes.
We back Hoffenheim to win, and the 1.44 at Ladbrokes is the best price on the home side. Our model gives them a 63% chance of winning, with the draw at 20% and a Hamburg win at 17%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim win | 1.44 (Ladbrokes) | 63% |
| Draw | 5.25 (Ladbrokes) | 20% |
| Hamburg win | 7.00 (bet365) | 17% |
| Both teams to score | 1.60 (Ladbrokes) | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 (bet365) | 67% |
We predict a 2-1 home win, the likeliest single scoreline at just under 10%. With 1-1 not far behind, a draw is in play, though the weight of the model sits with Hoffenheim. We project them at 2.31 goals to Hamburg's 1.12, and both teams to score comes in at 61%.
On the player markets, Kabak has fouled in four of four and is 1.13 at bet365 in a four-leg builder with Bornauw tackles, Capaldo fouls and Burger shots, which comes to 2.28 combined. Referee Harm Osmers has taken charge of one game this season, averaging 2 yellow cards.