FSV Mainz 05 host Bayer 04 Leverkusen at the Mewa Arena on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 2:30pm UK, and the two sides could hardly be closer on paper. Both have played four, won two, drawn one and lost one for 7 points. Mainz are 6th on 10 goals scored and 6 conceded, Leverkusen 5th on 10 scored and 5 conceded. Only goal difference separates them, and with goals at both ends in recent weeks this is a game where the first shot-happy attacker to find his range could decide it.
Mainz come in on a high after a wild 4-3 win away at Gladbach. That was a 3-4 win at Gladbach a week after a 3-1 home defeat to Frankfurt. Before that came a 5-0 thrashing of Hamburg and a goalless draw with Paderborn. They average 2.5 goals a game, the 4th most in the league, and have kept a clean sheet in half their matches, the 2nd highest rate. They also have the 5th most shots on target.
Leverkusen have won their last two, beating RB Leipzig 2-0 on Sunday and Celje 2-0 in the Europa League in midweek. Before that they drew 2-2 at Augsburg, won 4-0 against Union Berlin and lost 3-2 at Elversberg on the opening weekend. They also score 2.5 a game, the 4th most, and concede 1.25, the 5th fewest. They win plenty of set pieces, with 9.25 corners a game, the 2nd most in the division, and have the 4th most fouls.
The Bundesliga table is tight enough that a win lifts either side into the top four conversation.
FSV Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Schwolow; Posch, Potulski, Gruber; Mwene, Sano, Lee, Caci; Amiri; Becker, Tietz
Bayer 04 Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Flekken; Quansah, Tapsoba, Medina, Gutiérrez; Fernández, GarcÃa; Diaby, Maza, Moreira; Schick
Phillip Tietz is the main man for Mainz. He has had three or more shots in each of his four games this season, averaging four a game, and is 1.83 at bet365 to keep that going. He has also put at least one shot on target in all of his last five.
Ibrahim Maza has had three or more shots in four straight games, averaging 4.3, and is 2.15 at Ladbrokes to do it again. His last five games read 3, 5, 4, 5 and 5 shots.
Patrik Schick has also had three or more shots in four in a row, at 4.3 a game, and has hit the target in each of those four. A shot on target is 1.33 at bet365.
Afonso Moreira has had two or more shots in four straight and has committed a foul in each of his last four, at 1.40 with Ladbrokes.
Phillipp Mwene is a quieter pick. He has had a shot and made a tackle in all four games, averaging 2.3 tackles, and a shot is 1.91 at bet365.
We back Leverkusen to win, and the best price on them is 2.20 at bet365. Mainz are 3.00 at bet365 and the draw is 4.00 at midnite.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Mainz win | 3.00 (bet365) | 31% |
| Draw | 4.00 (midnite) | 23% |
| Leverkusen win | 2.20 (bet365) | 46% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 (bet365) | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 (bet365) | 68% |
We predict a 1-1 draw as the likeliest single score, though we make Leverkusen the more likely winner, with 1-2 close behind at almost 9%. A draw is very much in play. Our model has Leverkusen on 1.93 goals to Mainz's 1.57, and goals at both ends look likely given the 68% chance of both teams scoring. Both sides have an over 2.5 rate of 75% this season, and the model has 2.5 goals or more at 68%.
The player markets are where the interest lies. Tietz, Maza and Schick all carry long shot streaks into the game, and on a combined basis the model likes Tietz for a shot on target, Maza for two or more shots and Moreira for a foul. All three have hit in each of their last five games.