Schalke 04 welcome FSV Mainz 05 to the Veltins-Arena on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 14:30 UK. Schalke have scored four goals in five Bundesliga games, while Mainz have scored 13 and conceded 10, so the home side's defence faces one of the league's busiest end-to-end sides.
Our model makes Mainz the likelier winners, but the scoreline it likes best is 1-1. The questions are whether Schalke can keep the game as tight as their 0-0 draws suggest, and whether Phillip Tietz keeps shooting.
Schalke sit 13th with 5 points from five games, one win, two draws and two defeats. They lost 2-1 at Freiburg last Sunday, after a 0-0 draw with Elversberg, and before that they won 3-1 at Union Berlin. The run also holds a goalless home draw with Bayern and a 3-0 defeat at Augsburg.
The numbers back up a side that finds goals hard to come by. Schalke average 0.8 goals a game, the 2nd fewest in the league, and put up the 2nd fewest shots on target at 3.6 a game. At the other end they have been tight, conceding 1.2 a game, the 5th fewest, and keeping a clean sheet in 40% of their matches, the 3rd highest rate. They also commit the 2nd fewest fouls, just 8.8 a game, and take the fewest corners in the division.
Mainz are 8th in the Bundesliga table with 7 points from five, two wins, a draw and two defeats, and none of their games has been dull. They lost 4-3 at home to Leverkusen last weekend, after winning 4-3 at Gladbach and losing 3-1 to Frankfurt in September. Their 5-0 win at Hamburg sits in the same run.
Mainz average 2.6 goals a game, the 5th most in the league, with 6 shots on target a game, the 6th most. Both teams have scored in 60% of their matches and 80% have gone over 2.5 goals, the 5th highest rate. They also collect cards, averaging 2.4 a game, the 3rd most.
Schalke 04 possible starting lineup:
Karius; Kuruçay, Katic, Wöber; Gantenbein, El-Faouzi, Tanaka, Gosens; Karaman, Sylla, Adamu
FSV Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Schwolow; Potulski, Gruber, Posch; Mwene, Sano, Martel, Caci; Amiri, Becker, Tietz
Phillip Tietz has had three or more shots in five straight games, averaging 4.2 a game, the longest such run in the Bundesliga. He has also hit the target in each of those five games and is 1.53 at bet365 to do it again.
Phillipp Mwene has had a shot in five straight games from left-back and made tackles in all five as well. He is 1.73 at bet365 for a shot.
Hasan Kuruçay has made three or more tackles in four straight games, averaging 4.5, the longest such run in the competition. He is 2.20 at bet365 to reach three again.
Soufian El-Faouzi has committed a foul in five straight games and made a tackle in each of them too. He is 1.30 at Midnite for another foul.
Stefan Posch has fouled in four straight games and is 1.44 at Midnite to make it five.
We back Mainz to win, and Coral have them at 2.25. Schalke are 3.10 at bet365 and the draw is 3.75.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 win | 3.10 (bet365) | 30% |
| Draw | 3.75 (bet365) | 27% |
| FSV Mainz 05 win | 2.25 (Coral) | 43% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 (bet365) | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 (bet365) | 54% |
Our model has Mainz scoring 1.56 goals to Schalke's 1.28, and the prediction is Schalke 04 1-1 FSV Mainz 05. 1-1 is the likeliest score, though we make Mainz slightly more likely to win than Schalke or the draw. A game with goals at both ends looks more likely than not, with both teams to score at 58% and Mainz's last two games each producing seven goals.
On the player markets, Tietz has hit the target in five out of five and Mwene has had a shot in each of his last five. On the Schalke side, Kuruçay and El-Faouzi bring the longest defensive-work runs.