Updated 22 October 2026.
VfB Stuttgart welcome Borussia Mönchengladbach to the MHPArena on Friday 23 October, kick-off 7:30pm UK, in a Bundesliga game between a side with two wins from six and one that has lost all six of its league matches. Stuttgart sit 13th with 6 points. Gladbach are 18th in the Bundesliga table with no points, and they have shipped 20 goals along the way.
The home side are a long way clear in our numbers, but Gladbach have scored in four of their last five league games, so a goal for the visitors is firmly in the picture.
Stuttgart have won 2 and lost 4 of their six league games, scoring 8 and conceding 10. They come off a busy week: a 1-1 home draw with Atlético in the Champions League on Tuesday, three days after a 1-0 defeat at Hamburg in the league. Before that came a 3-0 win at Slovan in the Champions League and a 2-0 league win at Paderborn.
Across the season they average 5.83 shots on target a game and 6.67 corners, the 3rd most in the Bundesliga, and they concede 1.67 goals a game.
Gladbach's run is bleak. They have lost six in a row: 1-2 at home to Hoffenheim, 2-1 at Koln, 4-3 at home to Mainz, 5-0 at Freiburg and 4-3 at home to Elversberg. They concede 3.33 goals a game, the most in the league, and have not kept a clean sheet. All six of their league games have gone over 2.5 goals.
They are also the roughest side around. They commit 14.17 fouls and collect 3.33 yellow cards a game, the most in the division on both counts.
VfB Stuttgart possible starting lineup:
Seimen; Assignon, Chabot, Jeltsch, Hendriks; Stiller, Karazor; Leweling, El Khannouss; Undav, Demirovic
Borussia Mönchengladbach possible starting lineup:
Nicolas; Scally, Chiarodia, Diks, Ullrich; Sander, Neuhaus, Uno; Mohya, Bolin, Machino
Ermedin Demirovic is the headline name. He has had a shot in six straight games at 2.8 a match, and a shot on target in five in a row, priced at 1.29 at bet365.
Bilal El Khannouss has made a tackle in six straight games, averaging 2 a match, and has hit the target in four of his last five.
Gladbach's Philipp Sander has committed a foul in six straight games at 2.3 a match, and is 1.33 at Midnite to do it again. He has also had a shot in three in a row.
Lukas Ullrich has had two or more shots in three straight games and two or more fouls in three straight, the latter at 2.80 with Midnite. A shot at 1.73 is the shorter route.
Stuttgart defender Finn Jeltsch is a foul angle in our projections: 1.73 for one, 4.33 for two or more.
We back Stuttgart to win, and the bookmakers agree: they are 1.40 at Coral, and our model puts the chance at 67%. The better interest is in the player markets, where Demirovic's shot run and Sander's foul run give clear angles.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Stuttgart win | 1.40 (Coral) | 67% |
| Draw | 5.50 (Ladbrokes) | 18% |
| Gladbach win | 7.50 (bet365) | 15% |
| Both teams to score | 1.48 (Coral) | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.29 (bet365) | 71% |
We expect Stuttgart to score around 2.5 goals and Gladbach just over one. Our prediction is a 2-1 Stuttgart win, the likeliest single score at 9%, with 2-0 and 1-1 close behind. Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 32% of our simulations, but Gladbach have scored in four of their last five league games, and we put both teams to score at 63%.
For a bet builder, Ramon Hendriks to make a tackle (1.22), Atakan Karazor to commit a foul (1.44), Sander to commit a foul (1.20) and El Khannouss to have a shot on target (1.57) combine at 3.31. Each of the first three has done it in all of his last five games, and El Khannouss in four of five.
The Bundesliga game kicks off at 7:30pm UK on Friday 23 October 2026 at the MHPArena.
We predict a 2-1 win for VfB Stuttgart. 2-1 is the likeliest score in our model at 9%.
Stuttgart. We give them a 67% chance of winning, against 18% for a draw and 15% for Gladbach, and they are 1.40 with Coral.
We put both teams to score at 63%, with Coral at 1.48. Gladbach have conceded 20 league goals in six games and every one of their league games has gone over 2.5 goals.
Stuttgart are 13th with 6 points from 6 games. Gladbach are 18th with 0 points from 6.
Ermedin Demirovic has had a shot in six straight games and a shot on target in five straight.
Stuttgart: Seimen; Assignon, Chabot, Jeltsch, Hendriks; Stiller, Karazor; Leweling, El Khannouss; Undav, Demirovic. Gladbach: Nicolas; Scally, Chiarodia, Diks, Ullrich; Sander, Neuhaus, Uno; Mohya, Bolin, Machino.